Fun with buying in short

[xorbie]

So I buy into a $1/$2 game with my last $75 at Stars, figure why not try this shortstack stuff.

I've been at the table for two orbits, and I haven't played a single hand. Folded every BB to steal, open folded SB. Down to a bit less than $70. Folded to me in the CO, I have 67/images/graemlins/spade.gif, my favorite hand ever. I raise to $8. Button folds, SB folds, BB ($300+) raises to $18. I can't tell if he is actually paying attention to me, or just puts me on a steal. I push.

Now, I really like this more if I have more money in my BR at Stars so I can reload if he calls and I bust, but I'm thinking that my stack size is actually almost ideal for this play. What does everyone think?

[People_Mover]

Just cause it's your favorite hand doesn't mean you should go to the felt with it. I don't like your raise, but since you're in, I like your push.

[xorbie]

Here's the math, to save others the trouble. I have $60 left after my raise, and I'm pushing in to win $27 and I have 30% equity or so if called.

Thus I end the hand with $87 * (1-x) + $137 * .3 * x = $87 - $41.1 * x and I have $60 before I push, so I need to end up with that to make this EV neutral. So we take 27/41.1 = 65% is how often he needs to call (or less).

I guess the question is how often we think he is re-stealing, how often he will fold AK/TT/JJ.

[Cased Heel]

I think this is horrendous. His raise to 18 screams of wanting a call for value. He's probably got AA and is trying to ENTICE you into pushing, due to your small stack (yes, I notice when people buy in short. Don't think that he didn't).

And why would you fold several hands and then bump it up with 67suited?! Don't get it..

[xorbie]

I raise because they will fold most hands. And I realize he could have AA. But he could also have TT/JJ/QQ/AK and I'm thinking he could reasonably fold those.

[Cased Heel]

nahh, not if he's already bumped it to $18, you've got only $52 left for fold equity, and he's got $300 in his stack. You've shown PF strength, to which he's shown additional strength, I read him as trying to get you to push here. It's doubtful that your extra $52 re-raise here will get him to fold his obviously strong hand.

PLUS, when you factor in that he knows you "bought in short", probably in an attempt to "make this move", then he probably knows you have nothing that can beat TT or better.

[xorbie]

Why would I buy in short just to make this move? I buy in short to make this move with AA, not 67s.

[Cased Heel]

Lets put it this way, when the hand gets to him, he's got to call $6 more for an $11 pot. 1-5/6 : 1.

He re-raises... OK... so he's got to be strong. so you want to push all in for your last $52, right?

Now it's back on him. He's got to call $52 to win $81 now, or about 1.55:1, in other words, slightly worse odds than the first round of action. If he's not going to call here with these odds, he'd probably have never played the hand after your $8 raise to begin with, no? I mean he's got to anticipate your re-raise all in when he re-raises you initially.

I just think he's setting you up here. JMO. But you are right in that your push all in is laying him worse odds than the initial $8 raise. If it was laying him similar odds or better, he'd probably insta-call.

[Cased Heel]

[ QUOTE ]
Why would I buy in short just to make this move? I buy in short to make this move with AA, not 67s.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yet you didn't. You folded several hands, then chose to play your favorite hand.

[SamuraiPlatypus]

i think that's his point. he's representing aces.

[xorbie]

Of course he has similiar odds, but I've represented way more strength. Keep in mind that even if he only re raises with AK, QQ, KK and AA but is willing to fold QQ and AK here then he is folding 22 combinations of cards and calling with 12. So even if he is never restealing he is still folding almost 1/3, which is all I need for this to be EV neutral.

[Cased Heel]

OK.

[xorbie]

Well I'm pretty sure my move is slightly -EV, to the tune of $5 or $10, but it's at least a good image move.

Anyway this fish calls me with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifA/images/graemlins/club.gif and of course gets what's coming to him when the board comes Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif5/images/graemlins/spade.gif5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif10/images/graemlins/spade.gif.

I also now have $300 on my Stars account, which at least makes up for the past week.

Then within 5 minutes the table empties, which pretty much sucks because I gaurantee the next time I push with KK/AA someone calls me with nothing.

[xorbie]

Well I'm pretty sure my move is slightly -EV, to the tune of $5 or $10, but it's at least a good image move.

Anyway this fish calls me with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifA/images/graemlins/club.gif and of course gets what's coming to him when the board comes Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif5/images/graemlins/spade.gif5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif10/images/graemlins/spade.gif.

Then within 5 minutes the table empties, which pretty much sucks because I gaurantee the next time I push with KK/AA someone calls me with nothing.


I also now have $300 on my Stars account, which at least makes up for the past week.