AQs playalong

[xenthebrain]

Only read, BB is weak tight-agressive.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="blue">Hero ?</font>

We start on the flop.
I don't waited for everyone telling us to raise preflop /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Say what you would do and why

[2+2 wannabe]

easy check

there's a million people on the flop and you have ace-high

this is super standard

[@bsolute_luck]

closing action: fire a shot. pretty ragged unless someone has pocket 4s or 9s. checked through, anyone could fire at you on the turn and you could fold a live hand. only weak backdoor draws, you have overcards, and any fold improves your chances at this point.

[newfant]

I bet to try and find out where I stand. If there's a check-raise, I'll call one bet cold but may fold if it's two to me. The pot is big, you have position, and you may have the best hand = bet.

[Bodhi]

I check. I don't think anyone will believe me if I bet, I have no backdoor draws, we have 5 opponents, and I don't want to get check-raised. Meh - I give up, roll over and cry. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[2+2 wannabe]

[ QUOTE ]
i fire a shot

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I bet to try and find out where I stand.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think this is really poor with 4/5 others on the flop when you don't have the best hand 9.5/10 times

[Bodhi]

Yeah, I don't see what kind of reliable information we'll gain by betting. "Hmmmm. 3 of them called. That means they don't have a 9, or they do have a 9 and are slowplaying."

[madscratch]

I'd bet. There are 2 nines and it's a ragged board. Maybe a tricky player is sitting on a nine and maybe someone holding a 4 calls, but hopefully you'll clear out the field a bit and maybe get it checked around to you on the flop.

[VoraciousReader]

You know, we have tons of people in and a chance to see the turn for free. We can't fold out everyone AND they all have odds that would make a call correct.

I'm going to check, closing the action.

[deception5]

I bet because:

1.) There's a chance I have the best hand.
2.) There's a possibility of a check/raise from early position which will thin the field making it more likely that I could draw to the best hand.
3.) There is a chance that players will fold hands like 78/JT for one bet now while they may not fold later and I don't like giving them infinite odds to see the turn, picking up oesd/gutshot/pair/flush draw.

Edit: 4.) The pot is large. Even if 1 player folds I make it up in equity

[@bsolute_luck]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I don't see what kind of reliable information we'll gain by betting. "Hmmmm. 3 of them called. That means they don't have a 9, or they do have a 9 and are slowplaying."

[/ QUOTE ]

don't you face the same decision on the turn when someone bets? say a Q falls and it is bet and raised before it gets to you, now what?

i think you'll face the same decision whether you are check/raised here, check through and bet into on the turn, or check/everyone calls/turn is checked to you.

i wonder if there is a firm answer to this flop or if it just a matter of preference.

[2+2 wannabe]

[ QUOTE ]
You know, we have tons of people in and a chance to see the turn for free. We can't fold out everyone AND they all have odds that would make a call correct.

I'm going to check, closing the action.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is the only correct answer - anything else is wrong

[Bodhi]

Dude, the possibility of a check-raise is a reason not to bet. We have A-high and no backdoor draws. Paying 2 small bets to pay the turn is bad.

[benneh]

there are too many people in the pot to make betting an effective play here. check and hope to hit your ace or queen for free, then play from there.

i'm not really sure how to use pokerstove yet, but according to it, your equity against 5 random hands is only about 14% while the random hands hover around 17-18, if that's worth anything.

[newfant]

[ QUOTE ]
i think this is really poor with 4/5 others on the flop when you don't have the best hand 9.5/10 times

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would you play so passively when the pot is huge? What if you have the best hand? A check lets all the other donkeys see a free card with their crap hands.

I bet here because I want to get about two folds and increase my chances of winning this huge pot. Nobody has shown any aggression up to this point and we have a decent shot of having the best hand. I think you can afford to waste bets going after a huge pot like this.

[Bodhi]

If we had a backdoor flush here, I would bet. As it is, we have nothing and are behind all pocket pairs.

[@bsolute_luck]

[ QUOTE ]
this is the only correct answer - anything else is wrong

[/ QUOTE ]

i hate this answer and i think it is totally wrong.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
this is the only correct answer - anything else is wrong

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a pretty narrowminded way of looking at things. Just because everyone has odds to see the turn doesn't mean they know they have odds (or that they even know how to count odds). If they think they may be drawing close to dead (putting us on an overpair or a 9) or have a hand like J2s in the BB I guarantee they will fold to a flop bet. Thinning the field at all would make this a very good bet and a check/raise would not be terrible as it would have an even better chance of thinning the field.

[xxxx5847]

Post deleted by xxxx5847

[2+2 wannabe]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this is the only correct answer - anything else is wrong

[/ QUOTE ]

i hate this answer and i think it is totally wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

haha ok it was a little harsh

but you gain absolutely nothing by betting here - everyone will call and you'll be putting in money at an equity disadvantage (your hand isn't best with this many players)

you get to see a free turn card if you don't bet

free turn card on this board &gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; betting with nothing into a bunch of people

i really don't think this is close, but if someone has a reason why it is close say it and i'll listen

nothing that's been said yet makes betting desireable at all

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
Very good point. With your pfr, what are you representing? Quads? Are you hoping to clear the ones who forgot that you raised?

[/ QUOTE ]

Most likely an overpair...
A9s is also a possibility...

[Bodhi]

[ QUOTE ]
Why would you play so passively when the pot is huge?

[/ QUOTE ]

Checking is not passive. Aggression vs. passivity is a function of (%bet+%raise)/%call.

[ QUOTE ]
What if you have the best hand? A check lets all the other donkeys see a free card with their crap hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

We may have the best hand now, but not if someone has a pocket pair. As it is, our overcards are of the 'very weak' variety because we have no backdoor draws.

[ QUOTE ]
I think you can afford to waste bets going after a huge pot like this.

[/ QUOTE ]

You contradict yourself (waste bets?). I can see your desire to be aggressive and win large pots, that's good. But you need to learn where your overcards are strong and where they're not. Here they're not. Take the free card.

[@bsolute_luck]

[ QUOTE ]
If we had a backdoor flush here, I would bet. As it is, we have nothing and are behind all pocket pairs.

[/ QUOTE ]

we were behind them preflop too, but we raised anyways. what changed here?

whether you check it through or bet here, a lot of hands will call- especially overcards. why be concerned about odds at this point? checking gives any hand infinite odds, but we can't encourage missed hands to fold unless we bet in this big pot. IMO, it is easier to play the turn by betting instead of checking.

[xenthebrain]

Ok, this already got some discussion going.

I bet for the following reasons I thought of.

1) It's a ragged board and occasionally I will be ahead here even against 5 opponents. There are only 5 cards that connect with the board. And of course any PP:
There are no flush or straight draws so with what are they drawing if I bet and they want to call. Most likely to a pair, so anyone who folds helps me.

2) I might get a freecard on the turn.

So here is how it went on:

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 calls.

Turn: (8.75 BB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="blue">Hero ?</font>

[DeathDonkey]

Bet the best hand. Many in this thread have outlined good reasons to bet so I won't repeat them.

-DeathDonkey

[Bodhi]

It's really rare that my usual opponents put me on overpair's when I have them. I can't tell you how many times I raise with T's or something, flop rags and everyone calls, then an A falls on the turn and they all fold.

[DeathDonkey]

I really like betting the turn and folding to a checkraise.

-DeathDonkey

[2+2 wannabe]

[ QUOTE ]
2) I might get a freecard on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is the only good reason to bet this flop - i admit it

[Bodhi]

[ QUOTE ]
a check/raise would not be terrible as it would have an even better chance of thinning the field.

[/ QUOTE ]

Second time i've seen this opinion... A check-raise would be very bad. It thins the field, but at the cost of getting screwed on the flop. Do you really want to pay 2 small bets on this flop with Ace high????? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[madscratch]

At this point I check the turn. The flop bet only thinned the field by one and we didn't improve on the turn. Anyone's *something* beats our unimproved nothing...

[Bodhi]

Ok, now I really want you to take the free card. You still have 4 opponents, and you only have Ace high. take the free card.

[2+2 wannabe]

betting this flop is -ev, but there is a benefit to it at least (turn free card)

betting this turn is really, really foolish - the chance your hand is best is very low

[newfant]

[ QUOTE ]
Flop: (12.50 SB) 9, 4, 9 (6 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 calls.

Turn: (8.75 BB) 8 (5 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, MP3 checks, Hero ?

[/ QUOTE ]

... and that's why you bet that flop. You just got a ton of information there. Not only were you not checkraised on the flop noone bet the turn.

Bet again, the pot is huge. Call any checkraise and call any river bet. The pot is too big to fold now on the turn or the river unless you have to call two cold.

[Bodhi]

I know you are knowledgeable and I respect your opinions, but can you please explain? What sorts of hands are we ahead of here when we are called (on the turn)? I really can't fathom everyone folding to a turn bet, and betting the turn does not guarantee us a free showdown (wouldn't that be fun? Bet, Bet, someone bets into us - fold).

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, now I really want you to take the free card. You still have 4 opponents, and you only have Ace high. take the free card.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bet

[Bodhi]

[ QUOTE ]
You just got a ton of information there.

[/ QUOTE ] /images/graemlins/confused.gif

Like I said before, we bet the flop, they call, we can conclude: "they don't have a 9, or they're slowplaying a 9." Now didn't we learn a lot today children? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Bodhi]

Terrible. Absolutely terrible.

[@bsolute_luck]

i think the turn gets more debatable than the flop play, but personally, i'd probably fire again as many will call to see the turn but will fold overs when missed.

probably fold to a c/r.

[madscratch]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You just got a ton of information there.

[/ QUOTE ] /images/graemlins/confused.gif

Like I said before, we bet the flop, they call, we can conclude: "they don't have a 9, or they're slowplaying a 9." Now didn't we learn a lot today children? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

You'll even get BB calling one bet with his 4...

[imported_The Vibesman]

If the pot was smaller, I would check thru, fold the turn UI to the inevitable bet. But the pot is decent size, so I would bet.

If I check this flop, I'm basically telling everyone I have two overcards and giving up on the hand if I don't improve on the turn. The board is pretty ragged, no str8/flush draws, there are only 5 cards that hurt me out there, plus AK or a pocket pair, and I have a live draw against a lot of those hands (exc. AA,KK,QQ (only 3 outs),99,44 or any 9 - w/ no pf raise I can only think 44 or a 9) The continuation bet could represent a high pocket pair and fold better hands. Not likely, but it's a good size pot and I'd like to take every chance to win it.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
Like I said before, we bet the flop, they call, we can conclude: "they don't have a 9, or they're slowplaying a 9." Now didn't we learn a lot today children?

[/ QUOTE ]

So instead you'd advocate checking behind on the flop and folding to a turn bluff in a 12sb pot?

[2+2 wannabe]

[ QUOTE ]
... and that's why you bet that flop. You just got a ton of information there. Not only were you not checkraised on the flop noone bet the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

you gained no information at all

anyone that has a 9 is going to check-raise the turn, not the flop - a 4/8 is check-calling to the river

any 9, 8, 4, pocket pair, and ak (unlikely) beats you

chances are the op chose this hand because he/she managed to win it - selection bias

betting this turn is bad

[@bsolute_luck]

[ QUOTE ]
Terrible. Absolutely terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

explain. how does an 8 improve people here? no backdoor flush draws improved, we're already drawing dead to 9s. again, this probably comes to personal preference as, again, i think checking it through opens ourselves up to a more difficult river decision.

[2+2 wannabe]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Like I said before, we bet the flop, they call, we can conclude: "they don't have a 9, or they're slowplaying a 9." Now didn't we learn a lot today children?

[/ QUOTE ]

So instead you'd advocate checking behind on the flop and folding to a turn bluff in a 12sb pot?

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't think many people have the balls to bluff into 5 people

[DeathDonkey]

Ok I'll try. If someone has a 9, we are drawing dead, and we will surely hear from them on the turn, so its an easy fold if raised. If nobody has a 9, there just isn't that much to fear, sometimes they will have a pocket pair that they are weakly calling down with, and sometimes they have a weird hand with a 4 or now an 8 in it. But the cards we fear the most (non Ace or Queen facecards) are nowhere to be found, and everyone always chases on the flop with their overcards etc because that is an ugly flop and they don't think you have anything either.

Betting the turn allows us to: possibly (though usually not) get a better hand to fold, like a small pair that now gives up thinking you must have an overpair to keep betting, or maybe a 4 that just gets scared. It also allows us to get a free showdown if there is some chance our AQ high is best (if bet into on the river its an easy fold). Finally if we improve on the river we can keep betting like we have been naturally and gain extra bets.

Here is the important thing, if we DO by some chance have the best hand, we would love someone to fold any hand that has live outs against us. The pot is so big giving them a free card here and letting them catch a pair on the river would just be awful.

I'm telling you guys, start with the mentality that your opponents never have anything and then adjust as they present evidence that they do. Its much more fun, optimistic, confident, and profitable than assuming they always have you beat.

-DeathDonkey

[deception5]

Your opponents could easily be calling without a pair. Many small stakes players would call with hands like Q8 or K7. They hope pairing on the turn will be enough to win. Since this is a large pot, you should not give them a free card on fourth street.

[newfant]

[ QUOTE ]
Like I said before, we bet the flop, they call, we can conclude: "they don't have a 9, or they're slowplaying a 9." Now didn't we learn a lot today children?

[/ QUOTE ]

What about the check-through on the turn? That doesn't tell you anything? I can see a donk check-calling the flop bet with a 9 because there are no flush draws and no straight draws. However, I think a 9 is going to bet that turn because a straight draw is now out.

In any event, noone's shown any aggression, so I say we should bet the turn. If noone has a 9, the river will likely be check to us and we can check behind if we don't improve. I say you have to bet the turn here because we might be ahead, it might thin the field, and it might lead to a free river. If we check here, we're unlikely to see a free river which is bad if the river doesn't hit us.

[2+2 wannabe]

no one can seriously think we have the best hand here a sufficient percentage of the time to make a turn bet correct....

edited to add: there are no draws on this board at all

[@bsolute_luck]

[ QUOTE ]
anyone that has a 9 is going to check-raise the turn, not the flop - a 4/8 is check-calling to the river

any 9, 8, 4, pocket pair, and ak (unlikely) beats you

chances are the op chose this hand because he/she managed to win it - selection bias

betting this turn is bad

[/ QUOTE ]

bolded section is a pointless shot at the OP based on nothing and kindly ask you refrain from saying this.

and because people disagree with you means someone has something to learn from this whether you or someone else.

obviously a 9 could c/r the turn, so wouldn't it be an easy fold? you have 6 outs against any pocket pair or paired 4 or 8, seems like a fine place to bet again anyways plus you have position for the river. because you are passive and others are aggressive is no reason to post so harshly.

[DeathDonkey]

[ QUOTE ]
you gained no information at all

[/ QUOTE ]

Disagree. Nobody has shown any strength and its very pessimistic to assume we are beat just because a bunch of loose passive opponents checked and called. THAT'S WHAT THEY DO!

[ QUOTE ]
anyone that has a 9 is going to check-raise the turn, not the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

That makes a bet safer as we have an easy fold to a checkraise. If we needed to call a checkraise than we shouldn't bet. Get it?

[ QUOTE ]
a 4/8 is check-calling to the river

[/ QUOTE ]

Fine by me, if they showed us a 4 or 8 and bet we would have to call anyway so I don't see how this is a negative. Besides, they might fold, and we might hit a 6 outer.

[ QUOTE ]
any 9, 8, 4, pocket pair, and ak (unlikely) beats you

[/ QUOTE ]

Recognize how small a number of hands this accounts for. What about all those crappy overcard hands and weird straight draws and stuff they will call with as well that we beat?

[ QUOTE ]
chances are the op chose this hand because he/she managed to win it - selection bias

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is a great hand as it has obviously spurred alot of debate. And hopefully it will help cure the weak tightness that I'm seeing from many in this thread.

[ QUOTE ]
betting this turn is bad

[/ QUOTE ]

Totally disagree but I think that's obvious by now.

-DeathDonkey

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
obviously a 9 could c/r the turn, so wouldn't it be an easy fold? you have 6 outs against any pocket pair or paired 4 or 8, seems like a fine place to bet again anyways.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree.

Sometimes one of your opponents will have slowplayed trips and will check-raise you on fourth street. Agressive play causes many slowplay traps. Do not be embarrassed if you are fooled; continue to bet aggressively on future hands. When you fall for a slowplay, you lose an extra bet or two. When your opponents with weak hands all fold, you sometimes win a pot that you would have lost had you checked. In the long run it is much better to win more pots, even if it means being occasionally trapped for an extra bet.

By the way, this and my previous post were both excerpts from the free card section of ssh.

[MrWookie47]

[ QUOTE ]
I really like betting the turn and folding to a checkraise.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd probably fire on the flop (might have best hand, cull the herd), and I'd fire on the turn in a smaller field, but there are just too many people here. There's no way they're all going away. I think I take the free card.

[DeathDonkey]

[ QUOTE ]
no one can seriously think we have the best hand here a sufficient percentage of the time to make a turn bet correct....

[/ QUOTE ]

Humor me and tell me what percentage of the time we need to be best to make it correct?

[ QUOTE ]
edited to add: there are no draws on this board at all

[/ QUOTE ]

The turn puts some straight draws out there that bad players will often chase. JT especially.

-DeathDonkey

[2+2 wannabe]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
anyone that has a 9 is going to check-raise the turn, not the flop - a 4/8 is check-calling to the river

any 9, 8, 4, pocket pair, and ak (unlikely) beats you

chances are the op chose this hand because he/she managed to win it - selection bias

betting this turn is bad

[/ QUOTE ]

bolded section is a pointless shot at the OP based on nothing and kindly ask you refrain from saying this.

and because people disagree with you means someone has something to learn from this whether you or someone else.

obviously a 9 could c/r the turn, so wouldn't it be an easy fold? you have 6 outs against any pocket pair or paired 4 or 8, seems like a fine place to bet again anyways. because you are passive and others are aggressive is no reason to post so harshly.

[/ QUOTE ]

i definitely didn't intend to offend the op - i'm sure he/she realizes that (i mentioned it because if aq is good people will think it's good often - which it definitely isn't)

i don't feel like i'm being harsh (except for the one quote that i already apologized for)

this forum is for learning - that's why i post - i'm just trying to explain myself and people aren't understanding - it's frustrating sometimes

i seriously think that this turn bet is fundamentally wrong

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
There's no way they're all going away.

[/ QUOTE ]

They don't need to all go away. The pot is large and if the bet gets anyone to fold (which is much more likely with the turn bet) than it was EV neutral or +EV.

[VoraciousReader]

In my experience, we are going to have to spend at least 1 BB to see a showdown. If we check here, someone will probably bet that river. Either someone will decide to bluff at it or the guy holding A4o will wonder if maybe his bottom pair is good (or the guy holding trip 9s will realize maybe his slowplayed checkraise isn't going to work). If we check here, someone will probably bet at that river. (This is marginally less likely because you bet the flop...another possible argument for betting it...but I think I still check it through.)

So, do I want to put in my BB here or on the river? (Assuming I want to see a SD.) Here: I might fold someone who will be paired on the river. I might EVEN fold everyone, though that's stretching it. I won't fold someone I am already behind. (This is where the "nobody believes me" part comes in.) I also could get checkraised. I would like to see the river because my Q or A may still come, and thanks to the 9s on the board, I then beat any X4 or X8.

On the river, since I have the advantage of acting last, if it's checked to me I can bet if my Q or A falls. I can raise if I'm bet into, or if I still don't get my card, I can call if there are no overcalls.

I check the turn.

[DeathDonkey]

I really like you more and more despite your silly 1/2 6m stats /images/graemlins/smile.gif

-DeathDonkey

[McGahee]

[ QUOTE ]

That makes a bet safer as we have an easy fold to a checkraise. If we needed to call a checkraise than we shouldn't bet. Get it?


[/ QUOTE ]

I see other words in this cluttered thread, but this is really all that matters.

[newfant]

This hand epitomizes what I don't like about this board. Here we have a huge pot, position, and noone showing any aggression and many of you guys want to turn into weak-tight vaginas.

These are the pots you want to go after aggressively -- the big ones. Hell, I think a river bluffraise could even be justified (if we are bet into on the river here) because the pot is so damn big.

You guys want to get aggressive as hell with your medium pockets when its heads up and there are overs on the board but you won't go aggressively after this huge pot because "there are too many people in the hand." Well, that's how pots get huge.

It's much better to try and steal a huge pot like this from a lot of people than bet aggressively heads up because the percentage of your chips that your are putting into this pot is small while aggression heads up means you are putting in half the chips. Get aggressive with big pots, not small ones.

[MrWookie47]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There's no way they're all going away.

[/ QUOTE ]

They don't need to all go away. The pot is large and if the bet gets anyone to fold (which is much more likely with the turn bet) than it was EV neutral or +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Could anyone who has access to the stove on their comp right now provide some numbers with how our equity changes against random hands if we get one or more folds? The pot is fairly large, so it's conceivable that our increase in equity is worth our 1 BB investment, but I want numbers before I believe it.

[imported_The Vibesman]

Looks like just me and about one other person wanted to bet the flop, so y'all probably hate this one:
I'd bet the turn. This may be a big leak of mine.

I've seen many opponents call the flop w/overcards but fold the turn. Someone may have had two suited cards and had been hoping to pick up a flush draw. Every opponent that folds here is a victory. Someone may even fold the best hand. I've done it. And again, I don't see any reasonable hand other than 44 or a 9 (or 88 now)that you are dead against. I don't see how this turn could have improved many hands. You can easily fold to a raise.

[McGahee]

[ QUOTE ]
This hand epitomizes what I don't like about this board. Here we have a huge pot, position, and noone showing any aggression and many of you guys want to turn into weak-tight vaginas.

These are the pots you want to go after aggressively -- the big ones. Hell, I think a river bluffraise could even be justified (if we are bet into on the river here) because the pot is so damn big.

You guys want to get aggressive as hell with your medium pockets when its heads up and there are overs on the board but you won't go aggressively after this huge pot because "there are too many people in the hand." Well, that's how pots get huge.

It's much better to try and steal a huge pot like this from a lot of people than bet aggressively heads up because the percentage of your chips that your are putting into this pot is small while aggression heads up means you are putting in half the chips. Get aggressive with big pots, not small ones.

[/ QUOTE ]

I take back my previous post.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
Hell, I think a river bluffraise could even be justified (if we are bet into on the river here) because the pot is so damn big.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this would be wise /images/graemlins/smile.gif

You make some great points though in your post. People are saying that a 4 will be seeing the river, but how many here would call down with a 4 when the preflop raiser (a TAG no less) bet the flop and turn into 4-5 people? Granted these people are probably more passive, but we know at least one of them is weak/tight if not more.

[madscratch]

[ QUOTE ]
Looks like just me and about one other person wanted to bet the flop, so y'all probably hate this one:
I'd bet the turn. This may be a big leak of mine.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is a leak of mine which is why when I think about it I think the smart move is to check. I often tell myself that "well, no one's shown any strength, so maybe MHIG." But the fact remains we've got AQo against multiple players. Let's see if we improve for free.

[imported_The Vibesman]

[ QUOTE ]
People are saying that a 4 will be seeing the river, but how many here would call down with a 4 when the preflop raiser (a TAG no less) bet the flop and turn into 4-5 people? Granted these people are probably more passive, but we know at least one of them is weak/tight if not more.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. Anyone without a 9 is scared and looking for a reason to fold. And the point about it getting checked to you on the river is good.

[deception5]

1,179,198 games 10.375 secs 113,657 games/sec

Board: 9c 9d 8h 4s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 14.2209 % 13.09% 01.13% { AQs }
Hand 2: 21.4351 % 20.33% 01.10% { random }
Hand 3: 21.4583 % 20.34% 01.12% { random }
Hand 4: 21.4127 % 20.31% 01.10% { random }
Hand 5: 21.4731 % 20.36% 01.11% { random }


3,664,255 games 15.250 secs 240,279 games/sec

Board: 9c 9d 8h 4s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 21.1438 % 19.85% 01.30% { AQs }
Hand 2: 26.2867 % 25.13% 01.16% { random }
Hand 3: 26.2999 % 25.14% 01.16% { random }
Hand 4: 26.2697 % 25.11% 01.16% { random }

[SugarPush]

Someone should correct me if I am wrong here; however, I do not think that you need the best hand to have pot equity to raise. You just have to have better than 1/(people in pot) percent chance win. In other words if you think you will win the pot greater than 1/6th of the time and you think that you will get 5 callers then you have the pot equity to raise.

[newfant]

[ QUOTE ]
1,179,198 games 10.375 secs 113,657 games/sec

Board: 9c 9d 8h 4s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 14.2209 % 13.09% 01.13% { AQs }
Hand 2: 21.4351 % 20.33% 01.10% { random }
Hand 3: 21.4583 % 20.34% 01.12% { random }
Hand 4: 21.4127 % 20.31% 01.10% { random }
Hand 5: 21.4731 % 20.36% 01.11% { random }


3,664,255 games 15.250 secs 240,279 games/sec

Board: 9c 9d 8h 4s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 21.1438 % 19.85% 01.30% { AQs }
Hand 2: 26.2867 % 25.13% 01.16% { random }
Hand 3: 26.2999 % 25.14% 01.16% { random }
Hand 4: 26.2697 % 25.11% 01.16% { random }

[/ QUOTE ]

This doesn't seem right. How can every random hand be ahead of our AQ? Does every random hand have a 9 in it?

[newfant]

[ QUOTE ]
Someone should correct me if I am wrong here; however, I do not think that you need the best hand to have pot equity to raise. You just have to have better than 1/(people in pot) percent chance win. In other words if you think you will win the pot greater than 1/6th of the time and you think that you will get 5 callers then you have the pot equity to raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right on, brother. And don't forget folding equity. A bet on the turn here might fold AK if it's out there (which it probably isn't given the pre-flop action). Any hand that folds to our bet is +EV for us.

[@bsolute_luck]

[ QUOTE ]
This doesn't seem right. How can every random hand be ahead of our AQ? Does every random hand have a 9 in it?

[/ QUOTE ]

well you have to figure part of "random" are hands like AA and QQ.

[magates]

[ QUOTE ]
This doesn't seem right. How can every random hand be ahead of our AQ? Does every random hand have a 9 in it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Every random hand is equally likely to have a 9, or an 8, or a 4, or a pocket pair, or to pair up/hit a straight etc. on the river.

[xenthebrain]

First of I want to say that I'm not one of these guys who keeps betting the flop and turn with UI overs just because he raised preflop.
I try to always make adjustments to the cirumstances and not follow rules like "you gotta bet the flop when you raise preflop to not give away your hand"

I bet the turn because I thought of the following reasons:

1) I think we can be fairly sure that no one has a 9.
Why? I'll elaborate.

If someone flopped trip nines and decided to slowplay it (note, many people don't take the size of the pot into account when they decide to slowplay a hand) he would almost sure have acted differently.

If someone...

..in EP flopped trip 9s:
He would have hoped for someone directly on his left to bet, so he can trap the whole field for two bets on the flop or some idiot would even wait for the turn, that the guy on his left bets again and he can trap the field for big bets now.

Since no one on his immediate left bet, but the button he may not wanted to raise him, because he might thin the field with it and instead went for overcalls.
But in this scenario he almost sure would have bet the turn himself.
He would not risk getting it checked through, and if the same guy bets again he still would be inclined to just call on this board, so why not bet himself and hope for a raise from the button?

..in LP flopped trip 9s: It's unlikely that they wouldn't bet themselves on the flop or turn, since only one or two more would act behind them and they couln't be sure that they will bet. Also, if they went for this strategy they would almost certainly c/r the flop.

Still. I would have folded to a c/r on the turn though.

2) You will notice that my thinking on the flop was, that I might get a freecard on the turn and maybe eliminate some opponents. But my mind changed on the turn.

First off, the pot is huge. Saving bets is for small pots only, if I can increase my chances of winning in a big pot I should bet.

If I bet here it is not uncommon that I get better hand to fold, like pocket pairs lower than 99, a pair of fours and a pair of eights.

Some people might give me credit for having an overpair, some may not. But even if they don't believe me, they are loose-passives and often weak. They might fear a nine and thinking with their 4 or 8 that they are drawing to the lower full house and are drawing dead.

3) I am confident that I have 6 full outs and a (I admit) very small chance to still be ahead.
The 8 is a great card for me since it is lower than the 9s.
No one with A8, Q4 or whatever has me reverse dominated, since pairing up their top card counterfeits their 2nd pairs.

I hope I didn't forget anything I wanted to say...

So here's what happened.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 calls.

Turn: (8.75 BB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG folds, MP1 folds, MP3 folds.

River: (10.75 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="blue">Hero? </font>

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
I really like betting the turn and folding to a checkraise.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

me too

[davelin]

Check behind on the river. A better hand isn't folding.

[deception5]

Checks. Take the free showdown. Anyone beating you here isn't folding if they made it this far.

[MrWookie47]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I really like betting the turn and folding to a checkraise.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

me too

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, you guys have me convinced. Had I been playing, I probably would have bet. However, I autobet too much, and I was fighting my impulse along those lines. I'm looking for more places where my autobets are wrong, and I guess I was looking a little too hard this time.

Anyway, the river is an easy check. Hope BB is just a bad player.

[@bsolute_luck]

and here we sit on the river UI and one person left. is BB capable of folding his lower pocket pair or 4? what is he calling down with? i'd hate to forfeit a chance to fold him by not betting 1 more time.

this is tough. w/o knowing BB, i'd probably just check figuring i can't fold whatever it is he's been calling down with and i can only beat a missed draw of some kind.

[newfant]

Easy check. Well played. You did all you could do to win this big pot.

[J_B]

You seem to have enough comments on the rest of the hand. DO NOT raise this preflop! This was a poor move on your part. You do not have an equity edge with that many people in! We need to keep the pot small so we can control the hand on the flop and cause our opponents to make errors.

Read HEPFAP starting at page 159.

[newfant]

[ QUOTE ]
and here we sit on the river UI and one person left. is BB capable of folding his lower pocket pair or 4? what is he calling down with? i'd hate to forfeit a chance to fold him by not betting 1 more time.

this is tough. w/o knowing BB, i'd probably just check figuring i can't fold whatever it is he's been calling down with and i can only beat a missed draw of some kind.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you could find a bet here if the river card was scarier (say a king or jack), but that five isn't going to scare anybody that stayed in this long. It doesn't complete anything except an improbable gut shot. A four or a lower pocket pair isn't folding here.

Even if a king or jack came out, I prolly still wouldn't bet because river folds in big pots like this when it's heads up by a hand that we don't beat is rare.

AJ or KQ might call a bet here, but you'll usually be called by something that beats you.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
You seem to have enough comments on the rest of the hand. DO NOT raise this preflop! This was a poor move on your part. You do not have an equity edge with that many people in! We need to keep the pot small so we can control the hand on the flop and cause our opponents to make errors.

Read HEPFAP starting at page 159.

[/ QUOTE ]

At this limit it's an easy raise preflop. HEPFAP is more suited to higher limits where you can assume the other players are starting with decent cards and play well after the flop.

[xenthebrain]

[ QUOTE ]
You seem to have enough comments on the rest of the hand. DO NOT raise this preflop! This was a poor move on your part. You do not have an equity edge with that many people in! We need to keep the pot small so we can control the hand on the flop and cause our opponents to make errors.

Read HEPFAP starting at page 159.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is low limit here.
We almost certainly have an equity edge here preflop against these poor opponents who play too lose.
We must push it here.

In the April issue of the 2+2 magazine there was a nice articel about why it isn't in contradiction to the advice in HEPFAP.

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
You seem to have enough comments on the rest of the hand. DO NOT raise this preflop! This was a poor move on your part. You do not have an equity edge with that many people in! We need to keep the pot small so we can control the hand on the flop and cause our opponents to make errors.

Read HEPFAP starting at page 159.

[/ QUOTE ]

Read SSH

[gopnik]

easy check behind.

[McGahee]

[ QUOTE ]
1) I think we can be fairly sure that no one has a 9.
Why? I'll elaborate.

If someone flopped trip nines and decided to slowplay it (note, many people don't take the size of the pot into account when they decide to slowplay a hand) he would almost sure have acted differently.

If someone...

..in EP flopped trip 9s:
He would have hoped for someone directly on his left to bet, so he can trap the whole field for two bets on the flop or some idiot would even wait for the turn, that the guy on his left bets again and he can trap the field for big bets now.

Since no one on his immediate left bet, but the button he may not wanted to raise him, because he might thin the field with it and instead went for overcalls.
But in this scenario he almost sure would have bet the turn himself.
He would not risk getting it checked through, and if the same guy bets again he still would be inclined to just call on this board, so why not bet himself and hope for a raise from the button?

..in LP flopped trip 9s: It's unlikely that they wouldn't bet themselves on the flop or turn, since only one or two more would act behind them and they couln't be sure that they will bet. Also, if they went for this strategy they would almost certainly c/r the flop.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm usually not a big "all of your opponents are retards" guy, but you're giving them way too much credit here for being critical thinkers. They don't think twice about their relative position. They just check/call, C/R their monsters religiously regardless.

[ QUOTE ]

The 8 is a great card for me since it is lower than the 9s.
No one with A8, Q4 or whatever has me reverse dominated, since pairing up their top card counterfeits their 2nd pairs.


[/ QUOTE ]

That's an excellent point. Reverse domination sucks.

[gopnik]

BB is not calling your bet with anything you beat and not folding anything you beat. Check behind.

[J_B]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You seem to have enough comments on the rest of the hand. DO NOT raise this preflop! This was a poor move on your part. You do not have an equity edge with that many people in! We need to keep the pot small so we can control the hand on the flop and cause our opponents to make errors.

Read HEPFAP starting at page 159.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is low limit here.
We almost certainly have an equity edge here preflop against these poor opponents who play too lose.
We must push it here.

In the April issue of the 2+2 magazine there was a nice articel about why it isn't in contradiction to the advice in HEPFAP.

[/ QUOTE ]

I will read that article. TY.

But, I still disagree. I have many reasons for not wanting to raise this preflop - all of which I can backup by the math. I can not see WHY we raise this preflop. The only thing I ever hear is "We have an equity edge - we need to push it." We simply do not have an edge and quite often are dominated postflop with this hand. These times are the times where our postflop (TOP) skills should come into play so we can bully our oppenents out of the pot or have them make mistakes. Giving our fish odds to call with his rediculous holdings is not what I want to do.

Now of course if there were only 2 callers prior to us, of course, raise it.

[@bsolute_luck]

i'd love to see the math.

AQs is great shorthanded and multiway. Straight, flush, overcards- you name it. personally i'd rather raise this than AA in a large field for those simple facts. AA can fall behind a lot quicker and have less chances of improving.

what WOULD you like to raise with here?

[xenthebrain]

I'd thought we had this debate over already. It has been discussed many many times before here.
Sadly the article is no longer available...

[@bsolute_luck]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd thought we had this debate over already. It has been discussed many many times before here.
Sadly the article is no longer available...

[/ QUOTE ]

Xen: you gonna finish this fairytale story hand of yours or what? what happened? i predict....you bet and he folded /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
But, I still disagree. I have many reasons for not wanting to raise this preflop - all of which I can backup by the math. I can not see WHY we raise this preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a lot of data and charts (Pokerroom anyone?) will show that AQs will win more than it's fair share here. With 5 others limping into the pot, do they all have AA-QQ, AK here?

[deception5]

In regards to raising AQs preflop, check out SSH. It will explain this and is FAR more valuable in these games than HPFAP or TOP. Your statements about being dominated here are incorrect because your opponents are rarely limping with stronger hands than yours, but rather hands like Q7/A2/63. You are likely a huge favorite here and should exploit this.

[davelin]

http://www.gocee.com/poker/HE_Val_Sort.htm

AQs wins 29-30% of pots with 5 opponents.

[DeathDonkey]

I totally agree. You rock this thread. I expect to see JTo or the like and AQ high good.

-DeathDonkey

[Redd]

This is a good thread.

On a completely unrelated note, I'd like to remind everyone to vote in this poll (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Board=micro&amp;Number=2611551&amp;Forum =f21&amp;Words=%2Bbigger%20%2Blag%20-re&amp;Searchpage=0&amp;Limit=25&amp;Main=2611551&amp;Search=true&amp; where=sub&amp;Name=&amp;daterange=1&amp;newerval=3&amp;newertype=m &amp;olderval=&amp;oldertype=&amp;bodyprev=#Post2611551).

[MrWookie47]

The poll is good, but it definitely needed a box that read, "I don't know about this DeathDonkey fellow, but Entity is a pretty big LAG."

[newfant]

[ QUOTE ]
I totally agree. You rock this thread. I expect to see JTo or the like and AQ high good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, bro. It's been fun discussing hands with you guys today. I think I'm addicted.

[AngelicPenguin]

Late to the party, but I'll throw in my two cents. I bet the flop b/c I can get a free card w/ position. This is reason enough alone in this large pot. I check the turn mainly b/c I sincerely doubt I can win the hand right here and I bet the flop to get that free card. "You should bet the turn if there is a substantial chance to win immediately. Otherwise you should usually check. On the flop you should sometimes bet even if you think there is little chance to win immediately. You are looking for a few people to fold to improve your winning chances. On the turn that idea is less useful, since the bet will cost you twice as much and there is only one card to come." SSH, Playing the Turn in the Overcards chapter. I think the OP was fortunate to only get one caller in this instance on his turn bet, so I generally check.

[J_B]

[ QUOTE ]
In regards to raising AQs preflop, check out SSH. It will explain this and is FAR more valuable in these games than HPFAP or TOP. Your statements about being dominated here are incorrect because your opponents are rarely limping with stronger hands than yours, but rather hands like Q7/A2/63. You are likely a huge favorite here and should exploit this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have read SSH and frequently side more with TOP and HEPFAP than SSH. I have never read WLLH though - maybe I should.. I can't recall where SSH specificly talks about AQ, AJ with a few callers in. As far as that goes, where's my SSH atm, anyhow.

HEPFAP also talks about this in the QA section. The gist of the math is that by keeping the pot small we can induce our opponents to make errors post flop. By raising we give our opponents odds to call catching more and more rediculous draws. By raising we have now doubled the size of the pot. With only 5 players in (if both blinds called) we'd have now a 10SB pot instead of 5 SB. Congrats, you just gave fish his odds to call his 75 when the flop comes 439. The only thing we can now do to get the odds in our favor is wait for the turn and bet because now it's only 5BB.

Of course any time our opponent has a pocket pair we are already dominated. AQs is a good hand in a multiway pot. But I don't raise this against 4 fishies. I want to keep the pot small and keep the odds in my favor. I also conceal the strength of my hand here. I can get away from this post flop easier too.

In this position if the 4 are fish, I raise TT(probably), JJ, QQ, KK, AK, AKs, AA. I want to see the flop and see how my hand is before I go into ram and jam mode.

I did attempt to find the article. Taken down /images/graemlins/frown.gif. I truely do want to understand WHY raiseing this is automaticly the correct move. I really do, I just am having a very very difficult time understanding this.

We have an equity edge preflop? According to pokerstove (just a very quick 1% calc was all I could do quickly) against someone who would play 43% of card (44+,A2s+,K2s+,Q4s+,J6s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,A2o+,K6o+,Q 8o+,J8o+,T8o+) we have a small edge preflop. On this flop being discussed it was saying we were dominated. Preflop so far, we have a 10% edge vs. 4 people of 43%. I still feel thatr not raising is correct for reasons further above. I will let this run and see.

Please someone convince me WHY my thoughts are wrong.

[newfant]

[ QUOTE ]
HEPFAP also talks about this in the QA section. The gist of the math is that by keeping the pot small we can induce our opponents to make errors post flop. By raising we give our opponents odds to call catching more and more rediculous draws. By raising we have now doubled the size of the pot. With only 5 players in (if both blinds called) we'd have now a 10SB pot instead of 5 SB. Congrats, you just gave fish his odds to call his 75 when the flop comes 439. The only thing we can now do to get the odds in our favor is wait for the turn and bet because now it's only 5BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's a couple of things I don't like about the above paragraph
1) There is no mention of giving hero odds to re-draw. Let's say one of the villians has a four so that he pairs his four on the flop. If he bets into a pot that wasn't raised preflop, our odds to re-draw now on the flop to an ace or queen are not as good. Furthermore, we gave up equity preflop when we had the best hand and are now giving more equity to villian on the flop because of our failure to raise preflop.

2)Who cares if they have better odds to draw on the flop after we raise preflop? They're not folding anyway. And, any bets we get in on the flop when villian is on a draw is still more equity for us because we still have the better hand and are more likely to win. Why save up equity for later when we might be ahead when we can get our chips in preflop when we are very likely ahead?

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
we have a 10% edge

[/ QUOTE ]
/images/graemlins/confused.gif

thats a huge edge

[cold_cash]

Dude, start raising.

I would raise pretty much any two suited broadways on the button after any amount of limpers; especially the ones that contain an Ace.

The money goes in before the flop when you DO have an edge. You can't pass up a value raise there because the flop might come down K67, all hearts. You should also consider the fact that many of your opponents will play way more than 40% of their hands.

[xenthebrain]

The mistake to pay 2 bets with weak hands is far bigger (and gives us immediate profit) than them drawing on the flop with correct odds.
This does not apply to games where the players have a good understanding of the game, since they don't play many weak hands and thus make a smaller mistake by paying two small bets to see the flop.

[Dave G.]

You wanted math, here's some math. Note that our equity here will actually be quite a bit higher since "random" includes hands such as AA and QQ that have us crushed. These are very unlikely without anyone raising. So our equity is several percentage points better than this simulation shows.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
2,947,757 games 57.328 secs 51,419 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 29.3469 % [ 00.28 00.01 ] { AQs }
Hand 2: 14.0993 % [ 00.13 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 3: 14.1151 % [ 00.13 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 4: 14.1285 % [ 00.13 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 5: 14.1820 % [ 00.13 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 6: 14.1281 % [ 00.13 00.01 ] { random }
</pre><hr />

HPFAP was written for an entirely different class of players; people who are solid and don't play crap. This is party .5/1. These people are not solid and they do play crap. Failing to raise preflop is an irrevocable error. Heck, AQo is an easy raise here. If you aren't rasing AQs here, you are giving up a ton of value that can never be recovered.

This has been a very interesting thread though. As I read the thread and saw the turn my initial thought was to check it through, but after reading some convincing arguments, I think betting the turn is the superior play. Thanks for a great discussion guys.

[@bsolute_luck]

i want the conclusion of the hand!!! we had a lot of discussion and debate on this hand and with no resolve. what happened on the river!!

[xenthebrain]

I cowardly bet, that I don't get shown a hand he that beats me but would not have called with and he folded.

But I think I was good even if I checked behind.

[DeathDonkey]

Betting the river is a mistake. He will never fold a better hand after calling the turn and the river blanking off. The turn bet is for a free showdown unimproved, you got it, take it.

-DeathDonkey

[btspider]

wow, such strong language for checking the flop and turn. you guys really need to be able to look at the other side of things more.

[madscratch]

Is there any consensus on this hand? I'm going with the PF raise, bet the flop, check the turn and check the river. I'm on the fence with the river check. I'm just not convinced we're typically narrowing the field as much as we did here to get it heads up.

Excellent thread!

[xenthebrain]

[ QUOTE ]
Betting the river is a mistake. He will never fold a better hand after calling the turn and the river blanking off. The turn bet is for a free showdown unimproved, you got it, take it.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I know. But it was a mistake which could only cost me one bet, not the whole pot.
I prefer making these mistakes sometimes, over the others.

But if I haven't been thinking so much the rest of the hand, the river would have been an auto-check ^^

[J_B]

[ QUOTE ]
I cowardly bet, that I don't get shown a hand he that beats me but would not have called with and he folded.

But I think I was good even if I checked behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually do usually bet this flop, probably the turn and sometimes the river. I actually like the bet if you've been ramming and jamming the whole way. It could make an opponent fold his under pair when he put you on a 9 - Of course this would go back to my just calling preflop.

I do understand 100% that YES we have an equity edge preflop almost every time. BUT postflop we do not have an edge unless we pair our A,Q, or flop the flush draw (using Pokerstove for this.) Perhaps I missed something here.

I was under the impression that HEPFAP was more written with Casino play in mind and for to make a good player a better player. Casino players from what I have seen a very poor. In fact, they seem to be worse than online players IMHO. This is a broad statement though and of course you will have games with good players, but generally at least in the Chicago area the players are poor.

[J_B]

There is one other thing which might have been obvious. if we have an edge only at most 1/3 of the time, we will lose 2/3 of the time. By raising this we just cost ourselves an extra SB every 3 times. That might not be much, but I believe that in itself would make this a -EV move???

[J_B]

I must apologize for my previous post, it made absolutely no sense. I was tired at the time and not thinking clearly.

[oreogod]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this is the only correct answer - anything else is wrong

[/ QUOTE ]

i hate this answer and i think it is totally wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

It is wrong. You probably have the best hand...by betting you give opponents the chance to make the mistake of folding when they should call, a lower pp may fold in EP not wanting to get CR (unlikely but still possible), by not betting u give your opponents "infinite odds" -- basically letting them draw out with their crap T7 on u. Sounds like a plan. Bravo.

Preflop raiser or not, they checked to you, the board is awesome for your hand. 949. You cant ask for a better flop if u miss. Not only that, u have a pot that was raised preflop, called by a ton of limpers. Make a stand, improve your winning chances and bet. If u are behind, u have outs.

To the man who said anything else is wrong...I suppose it is, especially for a weak tightie.

[oreogod]

I havent read all of this thread yet, but some of these replys make me want to kill my cat. Way to much weak tightness.

Personally, Id love to get CRed by an EP limper on this flop.

[oreogod]

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Ok I'll try. If someone has a 9, we are drawing dead, and we will surely hear from them on the turn, so its an easy fold if raised. If nobody has a 9, there just isn't that much to fear, sometimes they will have a pocket pair that they are weakly calling down with, and sometimes they have a weird hand with a 4 or now an 8 in it. But the cards we fear the most (non Ace or Queen facecards) are nowhere to be found, and everyone always chases on the flop with their overcards etc because that is an ugly flop and they don't think you have anything either.

Betting the turn allows us to: possibly (though usually not) get a better hand to fold, like a small pair that now gives up thinking you must have an overpair to keep betting, or maybe a 4 that just gets scared. It also allows us to get a free showdown if there is some chance our AQ high is best (if bet into on the river its an easy fold). Finally if we improve on the river we can keep betting like we have been naturally and gain extra bets.

Here is the important thing, if we DO by some chance have the best hand, we would love someone to fold any hand that has live outs against us. The pot is so big giving them a free card here and letting them catch a pair on the river would just be awful.

I'm telling you guys, start with the mentality that your opponents never have anything and then adjust as they present evidence that they do. Its much more fun, optimistic, confident, and profitable than assuming they always have you beat.

-DeathDonkey

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Also, use numbers. Count the combinations of hands. Makes things much brighter.

Bet the flop, Bet the turn, Check the river. Simple.

And seriously, raise preflop. You equity is huge, punish limpers for the mistake of limping with trash...your preflop expectation outweighs your postflop expectation here. IT IS A HUGE HUGE MISTAKE TO LIMP HERE.