cowboys facing a big overbet

[sammy_g]

party 1/2 6 max. i have KK in the cutoff. two folds, and i make it $6. button folds, and SB moves in for over $300. BB folds. i have $283 left.

i've never folded KK preflop. sadly, i don't have much of a read on SB except that he is kinda weird/bad (as you can probably tell from this hand).

fold or call?

[djoyce003]

i hate folding here but I probably do...you have 6 bucks invested and you'd have to risk 300....if he's as bad as you say he is, this could be AA. Then again it could be 88.....I'd still fold unless i'd seen him pull this stunt a few times, then i'd instacall.

[sammy_g]

thanks, djoyce.

does anyone else call here, or am i a fish? cause i called...

[djoyce003]

[ QUOTE ]
thanks, djoyce.

does anyone else call here, or am i a fish? cause i called...

[/ QUOTE ]

Yikes...but I still think the general concensus will be no as it's a mammoth overbet and you don't have the nuts. If he had open pushed a few times, then i'd call, but if this is the first time he tried it, then I probably fold. Hope it worked out for you.

[Go_Blue88]

i'd call.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Very very easy call. Christ.

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
I still think the general concensus will be no as it's a mammoth overbet and you don't have the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, because no one on this board cares about EV, we only like to call bets with the nuts.

[xorbie]

Let's say he wins 20% of the time here, and let's say you (or the blinds) only call with AA when he moves in. He is risking $280 to win $9 and he wins $280 20% of the time. Let's say the blinds never call (so really his EV is even lower), so he ends the hand with:

(1-x) * (302) + x*.2*580 = 300 - 302x + 116x = 302 - 186x. And this is assuming he starts the hand with 290, so in order to break even he needs you to fold 94% of the time. This means that, surprisingly enough, his push is actually not so bad, especially if he has a hand like 67/images/graemlins/spade.gif which is actually about 30% to win against AA, in which case he maybe needs you to fold only 91% of the time.

Just an interesting aside.

[djoyce003]

i'm curious about results now.

[LBJ]

Alright, let's say 65% of the time you're facing AA. 10% of the time you're facing AK. The other 25% you're facing an underpair (QQ-1010). Those are by far reasonable estimates.

65% * .18 = 12
10% * .70 = 7
25% * .82 = 21

Looks like youll win about 40% of the time here. If these estimates on the hands are reasonable it looks like you should fold. After all that, I'd probably still end up calling. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

EDIT: I probably should have included some % of random hands. I'd say theres a 10% chance he's bluffing with a completely random hand. This is Party....so yet another reason I'd end up calling.

[IamLeach]

I'd call...what did Villian have?

[sammy_g]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd call...what did Villian have?

[/ QUOTE ]
come on, you guys know what villain had. /images/graemlins/wink.gif do i post the hand if he has 44? ok, well, maybe. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

he had AA, and i lost $300 fighting for $10.

so i'm wondering if my policy of never folding KK preflop is stubborn and dumb or if i make money on this call in the long run.

in my first 10k hands of no limit, i have picked off a few bluffs in this type of situation with KK, although never such a big bet. i have also run KK into AA all-in preflop one other time, but i think there i made the all-in move.

LBJ's hand range for villain seems pretty generous, and even there it is still a fold. (thanks LBJ for running the numbers.)

the money might be a little too deep for this call. for what it's worth, i think this is a silly way for villain to play AA. i probably save money in the long run because i am able to get away from hands like AK and JJ without losing my shirt.

[kongo_totte]

[ QUOTE ]

so i'm wondering if my policy of never folding KK preflop is stubborn and dumb

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course you could fold K K pre-flop sometimes. The situation described in OP is not one of those times though.

[Black Aces 518]

What an AWFUL play with the AA and how lucky for him that someone had KK and looked him up. That is simply the only hand that will call.

I think I would have mucked with no read, but it would have been harder looking at the KK right in front of me. I throw up if I muck and he shows JJ.

[PokeHer]

you gotta call. if you say he is weird/bad, he may be WAY overdefending his blind since you raised from the CO. i'd fear AA in the back of my mind but there is no way I'd fold

[djoyce003]

I just don't think its that easy of a call. If the villain has done this a couple of times, that's one thing, but if this is the first time you've seen him do it, I think it's AA waaaaaaaaaaay more than it's anything else. Someone that will do this with medium pocket pairs or AK would have already done it...that isn't what happened here. Remember, there is 6 bucks our hero has invested in that pot...he's essentially calling 300 to win 300 and if villain has AA we are in a lot of trouble. It seems like the general board here says to call, but I fold here and don't feel all that bad about it...if this behavior continues i'll pick him off eventually.