$109s - Play a Hand With Me

[Unarmed]

No real reads on these guys.
Both built their stacks on a PF raise and C-bet that took down the pot uncontested. Give me your plan for this hand from the flop on.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG+1 (t925)
MP1 (t1785)
MP2 (t1100)
MP3 (t1015)
CO (t1210)
Button (t1175)
SB (t780)
Hero (t960)
UTG (t1050)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls t50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls t50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: (t175) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero ?

[zambonidrivr]

check

[citanul]

Eh, my usual plan would go like this:

Check with the intention of:

1) calling if it's a small bet and a call to me
2) calling if it's a check and a small bet to me
3) folding if it's a mid sized bet and a fold to me
4) folding if it's a check and a mid sized bet to me
5) usually checkraising all-in if it's a mid sized bet and a call to me
6) folding if it's a largish bet and a call to me
7) folding if it's a largish bet and a fold to me
8) folding if it's a check and a largish bet to me
9) calling if it's 2 all ins to me

the lines of small/mid-sized/large are too ethereal to put into words right now (aka, i so sleepy). also, i'm not in love with several of those 9 lines, though most of them aren't that bad i think /images/graemlins/smile.gif

citanul

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
check

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't really spouted off on anyone lately, but sir:

You post some of the least infomative, least explanatory, often incorrect, valueless, drivel this forum sees. It is posters like you that I dislike the most, those who say things with so little explanation that the common reader can't even tell that you're a moron, and has to consider you might be right. If only you'd take the time to write a sentence or two to go along with your "pithy" responses, people would know to just ignore what you say immediately, instead of having to wait around for someone else to clear it up.

What do you say? Take an extra 10 seconds for each post and put a disclaimer on the end at least that says "warning, poster may, in fact, be an idiot"?

citanul

[zambonidrivr]

okay thanks. i will do better

[zambonidrivr]

is approach #9 due to your opportunity to trip up and put yourself in position for the win? just would like to know how your thinking is around folding to a mid-large bet from one, but pushing to 2 all-in's.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
is approach #9 due to your opportunity to trip up and put yourself in position for the win? just would like to know how your thinking is around folding to a mid-large bet from one, but pushing to 2 all-in's.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, folding to a mid/large bet from one is because I'm looking to get good odds on my draw, not not get good odds. The calling 2 all-ins is probably not a great idea, but you're getting a small overlay if you think you're about 1/3 likely to win the pot (say, up against AK and A4). But if you're up against a set, say against AK and 44, you're only about 27.6% to win the hand, which I'm too lazy to check and see if you've got enough of an overlay to chase. I'm more inspired to get very involved with my draws if i have say, a pair or something to go along with it, or a gutshot even, or more than 2 opponents in the hand. i find the 2 opponent spots to be the oddest for me.

but yes, the reasoning was based on "[censored], tripling up is good." while folding to the mid/large bet is in large part due to the idea that against one opponent, you're likely going to have a hard time getting all your money in when you do hit your draw (your expected payout is not so great).

citanul

[vinyard]

I hesitate to chime in here but I yeah you are taking a slightly worse than 2:1 shot to triple up. You have the nut flush which will likely (90%?) win the hand giving you a chance to triple up and you have about a 50% chance to hit it.

All-nighting makes one type silly things. I got it right the first time: you are slightly worse than 2:1 to hit it (2.18:1 to be exact.) 2:1 does not equal 50%.

[zambonidrivr]

50%? I think it's 32%? Sorry to not provide any other reasoning beyond this

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]
I hesitate to chime in here but I yeah you are taking a slightly worse than 2:1 shot to triple up. You have the nut flush which will likely (90%?) win the hand giving you a chance to triple up and you have about a 50% chance to hit it.

[/ QUOTE ]

www.twodimes.net/poker/ (http://www.twodimes.net.)
Have fun!

Oh and yes I know I'm biting adanthar's style with this post. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Unarmed]

Ok, well I don't find the flop all that interesting either.
Leading is bad because there's two potential aces out there, and trying to move our average oppponent off an ace through any sort of line is generally a bad idea.

As citanul posted, I would either check/fold, check/call, or check/raise according to the action. Anyway, the hand gets checked around.

Turn: (175) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Your move and rationale.

[vinyard]

It would help if you told us what the play was on the flop. Checked around?

[wulfheir]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, the hand gets checked around.


[/ QUOTE ]

[mosdef]

he said it checked around

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
Turn: (175) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Your move and rationale.

[/ QUOTE ]

C/F to any ~half pot or greater bet. I've got twelve outs that I think are good, and four of them are enough of a scare card that I'm not likely to stack anyone, and for three of those four may be playing for a split pot.

Betting out is no good because I can't stand a reraise.

C/Ring is no good because I've shown no strength, and I'm not likely to get any aces to go away, or any QJs or the like.

I'll check/call any bet up to about 100 here I think, check/fold anything else.

[The Yugoslavian]

Is this the hand you pmed me about?! You have a nut flush draw? Okay I completely misread it in the pm...probably because..well, i'm an idiot.

Yes, I'd check the flop.....planning to get all my chips in there if I can get more dead $$ in the pot or call smallish bets or raise smallish bets if they seem weak....or something.

So when the Q comes on the turn I do like betting....not sure what I was smokin' in my pm. How about a t125 bet or so? I can also see a t60 bet being used instead....b/c you then have more room to take the pot on the river.

Yugoslav
PS Outside of citanul this thread has been a huge trainwreck..../images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
check

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't really spouted off on anyone lately, but sir:

You post some of the least infomative, least explanatory, often incorrect, valueless, drivel this forum sees. It is posters like you that I dislike the most, those who say things with so little explanation that the common reader can't even tell that you're a moron, and has to consider you might be right. If only you'd take the time to write a sentence or two to go along with your "pithy" responses, people would know to just ignore what you say immediately, instead of having to wait around for someone else to clear it up.

What do you say? Take an extra 10 seconds for each post and put a disclaimer on the end at least that says "warning, poster may, in fact, be an idiot"?

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]


This is great. "Sir, you f$#%&amp;^*&amp;$#!!@#$#@ piece of crap."

The sir part is the best.

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
So when the Q comes on the turn I do like betting....not sure what I was smokin' in my pm. How about a t125 bet or so? I can also see a t60 bet being used instead....b/c you then have more room to take the pot on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's my problem with that. I really want to see a river here. But if you're betting out, I think you have to be in a bet/fold mindset with one card to come. I may, however, be able to call a small bet from someone trying to pick up the pot.

Say you bet out and are raised. What do you put your opponent(s) on and what is your action? Most raises at this point would pot commit you.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Betting out is no good because I can't stand a reraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an interesting point. I know I often FEEL this way, but betting out gives you the added benefit of potentially taking the pot right now. Furthermore, a c/r generally will create the intended odds you need to make a turn call.

I don't know if what I'm saying is correct, but it's just something I think about.

[citanul]

for me, the wrong side of the bed is any side before noon, apparently.

citanul

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So when the Q comes on the turn I do like betting....not sure what I was smokin' in my pm. How about a t125 bet or so? I can also see a t60 bet being used instead....b/c you then have more room to take the pot on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's my problem with that. I really want to see a river here. But if you're betting out, I think you have to be in a bet/fold mindset with one card to come. I may, however, be able to call a small bet from someone trying to pick up the pot.

Say you bet out and are raised. What do you put your opponent(s) on and what is your action? Most raises at this point would pot commit you.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'd have two options here on the turn:

i'd either bet ~100 or 125 or so or i'd check.

the point of betting out, mlagoo, is that a) it's likely that they will both fold, as they didn't bet at the flop b) it's possible you have the best hand, as they didn't bet the flop and you have the nut no pair high card /images/graemlins/smile.gif c) if called, you can improve to the winner with your decent draw on the river.

this is commonly called the semi-bluff, i believe.

the plan of bet the turn includes "if you are raised, fold" pretty clearly. i mean, if the next guy miniraises you and the next guy calls and you can close the action getting like 7-1 or whatever, you call, but any real raise, you just fold.

citanul

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
betting out gives you the added benefit of potentially taking the pot right now.

I don't know if what I'm saying is correct, but it's just something I think about.

[/ QUOTE ]

yep.

citanul

ps: for more clarification i guess, amongst other things, your opponents could easilly put you on an ace, possibly a weak one, since many players will checkraise any ace there. the q isn't the greatest card in the world, since i mean, theres AQJ up on the board now, and it's pretty likely somoene has some of that, but it's often worthwhile to take stabs at pots like these.

[mlagoo]

I understand your reasoning, and think you might be right.

Here's my thinking. I don't think they can put me on an ace, with the possible exception of Ax. Which means that, probably, the best they can put me on at this point is a Q. We've got two limpers here. I don't know that it's worth going through all the stats of their limping range, but isn't it likely that between the A, Q, and J, this has connected with them somehow? KQ comes to mind, KT of course, QJ, QT. Axs in MP that didn't bet because he feared the CO, perhaps (unlikely).

I think what I'm saying is, intuitively, without checking the math, the range of limping hands this connects with is greater than the range it doesn't connect with.

So I guess, ultimately, I'm not sure I agree that it is all that likely we will pick up the pot uncontested.

edit:

[ QUOTE ]
the q isn't the greatest card in the world, since i mean, theres AQJ up on the board now, and it's pretty likely somoene has some of that

[/ QUOTE ]

thats pretty much what I was saying. I'm longwinded.

[The Yugoslavian]

No. You can bet/bet here. You don't have to bet the turn and then shut down....even if you don't hit your nut. It all depends on how weak you read your opponent as.

Yugoslav
PS Generally though I won't fire another big barrel on the river without hitting my hand here although I know players who are capable of it and have a great feel for when to do it after being called on the turn.

[kyro]

I check and hope they bet 100 or less.

[kyro]

I'm late to the party it looks like.

I liked mlagoo's analysis. Getting check-raised on this turn would make me ill. So I check like a little girl.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm late to the party it looks like.

I liked mlagoo's analysis. Getting check-raised on this turn would make me ill. So I check like a little girl.

[/ QUOTE ]

cough... you can't get check raised when you're first to act.

citanul

[microbet]

As it is, there are three good things that can happen. You can get a cheap or free draw on your flush. You can win the pot right here. You can get some more money in the pot and then semi-bluff.

I think with your stack size, it is best to go cheap. The overlay is pretty skinny if they both go all-in. That's a pretty rare occurance anyway.

I really only like checking with the intention of pushing two medium bets or calling small bets.

If my stack were deeper, I wouldn't mind betting out. They both limped and there is probably at least 50% chance that neither of them have an ace. You can then semi-bluff if you get a good chance and also, the bet out on the flop could buy you a free river card.

[microbet]

There are two choices.

A) Call them pussies and bet out.

B) Call yourself a pussy and check.

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]
There are two choices.

A) Call them pussies and bet out.

B) Call yourself a pussy and check.

[/ QUOTE ]

Heh, so I bet 125. I'd be a lot happier with this bet if the turn had bricked, but I picked up the nut GSSD with the queen so I think its fine. I get called by CO, boo. He has either a Q or a curious mid pair. Ace is unlikely since the flop was checked around multiway with a FD out there. Anyway, I really don't think I've shown enough strength to push someone off a Q with no read so I'm basically done with this hand unless I nut up. (if you think there's some merit to betting a bricked river, please comment)

Alright, Yugo already mentioned this. I think I need a read here to fire two barrels. Repping an ace here is tough because:

- I'm in the BB so my hand range is any two, making an ace statistically less likely then if I were in, say, the SB.
- A good percentage of players will raise an ace in the BB here with only two limpers.
- Nearly all opponents will bet an ace on that flop.

The fact that I would have played an ace exactly like I played my K5s is irrelevent. If Kyro is Villain I will push him off his KQ everytime on the river. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Anyway, back to the actual hand.

River: (425) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif

Oh REALLY! Your move.

[schwza]

i give up here, but maybe cause i'm a coward. i think there's too good a chance a mediocre A calls you, or that villain has Qx. i'd like a bet a lot better if you had a small flush draw. check and hope your nut no pair is good.

[microbet]

I guess I check/fold. I might bet 300 if I was pretty sure that would move him off an ace. Against a random opponent, I wouldn't assume it would do it.

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess I check/fold. I might bet 300 if I was pretty sure that would move him off an ace. Against a random opponent, I wouldn't assume it would do it.

[/ QUOTE ]

What % of the time do you think Villain is holding an ace after he checked the flop closing the action? I'll admit he could be one of those guys that thinks AJ is the immortal nuts, no matter what the turn card is.

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess I check/fold. I might bet 300 if I was pretty sure that would move him off an ace. Against a random opponent, I wouldn't assume it would do it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think we're worried about moving CO off an ace. If he has an ace last to act on the flop, he's betting it.

I think it's more about making a decision on whether CO was on a Q or a busted draw like us. And I don't think I've been given reason enough to believe he was on a draw that I'm willing to bet into this river.

C/F.

[microbet]

He could have a good kicker and be foolishly slowplaying or a bad kicker and be seeing monsters. Still, not a huge percentage. Maybe 10%, maybe less. But, if he'll fold an ace, he should fold a jack or a 4 or any pockets and if you add that all up, you might make a scary looking bet profitable.

[Unarmed]

Yeah, I think the real issue is whether he has a mid PP or a jack enough of the time to make a bet profitable. I don't think he'll lay down an ace if his master plan of slowplaying it *worked*, but I think that 99 or JT lays down to bet here the vast majority of the time.

[microbet]

Well, I don't get too specific in trying to read his hand. There are several possibilities for him to have very good hand, several for him to have something that beats you, and several for him to have a draw.

I think he's well under 50% to have a very good hand.

If you think betting 300 or so is VERY likely to make him fold any mediocre hand, then I think it is a good bet.

He's been passive so far, so if I knew he had only a monster or a draw (no mediocre hand), I would check and have a good chance of winning anyway if he was on a draw.

[arod15]

Bet the flop pot size. Or check raise all in thats your pot dont let anyone else take it.

[mlagoo]

I can see that.

What about an even thinner value bet? Something like 200. The sort of bet that screams "reraise me" so much that (hopefully) it will get the guy to fold.

Of course, while at the same time giving us a bit more breathing room if he does opt to reraise.

I can see that working. And we've still got something like T700 to work with if he calls/comes over the top.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet the flop pot size. Or check raise all in thats your pot dont let anyone else take it.

[/ QUOTE ]

egad

citanul

[arod15]

Check fold or check call a small raise. Think this pot was urs if you bet the flop....

[citanul]

when we talked about this earlier, my brain still hadn't gotten out of bed i think. i think that MOST of the time, i'm giving up on the river here. betting ~1/2 pot is still a very viable option, considering you can still get away from the hand if you are raised. but i'd like to have a feel for my opponent i think with a board this treacherous, out of position, before doing the river bet.

[microbet]

Basically, outside of a home game, a 2+2 game, or maybe final table of the WSOP ME, I put him on thinking that my invitation for a reraise meant strength. I would be more inclined to think I was inviting a reraise. It would be nice to keep the extra 100, but I think it would make your bet a lot more effective on average.

Still, I'm generally check/folding.

At a lower buyin ($22 and lower), I'm definitely check/folding.

[Unarmed]

I led for 300, he pushed, I folded.
BARF.
Good discussion guys, thanks.