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View Full Version : VPIP and Post Flop Aggression Factor: negatively correlated?


King Yao
07-07-2005, 08:59 AM
If someone has already posted, thought or compiled stats regarding this, please let me know.

From seeing numbers from a few posters and emailers, I have anecdotally noticed that the VPIP and the Aggression Facotr seem to be negatively correlated. It seems the tighter the player (lower VPIP), the higher the post-Flop Aggression Factor. My guess is that the tight player is entering the hand with better cards in general, so he has more reason to play aggressively post-Flop. Meanwhile the looser player is entering more pots with marginal hands and has less reason to be aggressive.

If my reasoning is correct, then its not very useful to look at or compare the Aggression Factor without considering the VPIP at the same time. For example, say Player X has an AF of 3.0, while Player Y has an AF of 2.0. From these numbers alone, maybe one would conclude that Player X is more aggressive post-Flop, raises and semi-bluffs more. But if we add in that Player X has a VPIP of 25 and Player Y has a VPIP of 35, then maybe that tells us that they are equally as aggressive with the same hands, but Player Y just plays more of them, so the hands that he is playing that Player X isn't - those hands aren't as good (definitely not premium hands), so he has less reason to be aggressive with them.

Meanwhile if we see another pair of players, say Player A has a VPIP of 25 and a AF of 3.0, while Player B has a VPIP of 40 and a AF of 3.0 - then we can surely say Player B is much more aggressive post-Flop because he is as aggressive as Player A, but in general will be holding worse cards after the Flop since he is playing more hands.

My numbers from Poker Tracker (these may be skewed a bit since I probably played more heads-up and 3-handed than most people - I don't know how to limit hands to only 4-6 handed in the "Details")

VPIP: 41.4%
Pre-Flop Raise: 26.2%
Post-Flop Aggression Factor: 2.09

It would be interesting if others can post their numbers for VPIP, Pre-Flop Raise and Post-Flop Aggression Factor. The reason I put the Pre-Flop Raise in there too is to see if the PFR or the VPIP is more highly correlated to the post-Flop AF.

J.R.
07-07-2005, 09:11 AM
yes, it has been discussed extensively, here is one example, altough it doesn't really get into pfr HERE (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=1119044&page=&view=&s b=5&o=&vc=1)

King Yao
07-07-2005, 09:13 AM
Thanks, I'll check out that thread.

Derek in NYC
07-07-2005, 09:20 AM
Im not sure it is quite that simple. AF calculations omit the times that a person folds on that street. So a high VPIP could fit-or-fold on the flop, but play extremely aggressively when he did decide to play on. It probably is true to some extent, however, that lower VPIP have higher AFs, since they are opting to play on (aggressively) with their premium hands.

Wynton
07-07-2005, 09:31 AM
Some of us are still struggling with understanding the aggression numbers.

See link (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=2800268&page=4&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1)

Derek in NYC
07-07-2005, 09:33 AM
Think of AF as a ratio between aggressive action (bet or raise) taken vs. passive action (call) taken. If the AF is 2, that means the person is twice as likely to take an aggressive action instead of a passive action.