9 9 flopping set. I suck at math.

[kongo_totte]

I know I should be able to figure this
out and I'm embarressed to say I need help with this. Question: How often must my opponent have an inferior hand to make this a call? I know that if he has the straight I'm 22% (1 to 4) to win and I have to call 32 to win 73 but I still can't figure how often I have to have him beat by the turn. Please help. BTW, no reads on main OPP.



Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG ($25.05)
UTG+1 ($39.95)
MP1 ($49)
MP2 ($58.35)
MP3 ($53.7)
CO ($49)
Button ($52.2)
SB ($49.65)
Hero ($50.75)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to $1</font>, CO calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB (poster) calls $0.75, Hero calls $0.50, UTG calls $0.50.

Flop: ($5) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4</font>, UTG folds, MP3 calls $4, CO calls $4, SB folds.

Turn: ($17) J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $12</font>, MP3 folds, CO calls $44 (All-In), Hero folds.

Final Pot: $73

[jkkkk]

You are 22% to spike a pair / hit quads and obviously don't have the odd's, good fold.

If you find yourself having trouble with odd's again, try this (http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_odds/texas_holdem.php#)

[kongo_totte]

Yes, but there is a possibility he does not have the made straight and my question is how high that possibility must be to make this a call.

[jkkkk]

..

[jkkkk]

I'm going to guess at roughly 10%, maybe more.

[meow_meow]

I hate this fold sooooo much.
How can you give villain credit for pulling an inside card here? 2 pair, JwGK, JwFD/SD are sooooo much more likely. I'd guess you are ahead on the turn at least 80% of the time.

[c_strong]

It is costing you $32 for a $73 pot, so your pot odds are 73:32 which is about 2.3:1. If you're winning one time in three here you have to call. (The situation is a bit more complicated because you have redraws if he's ahead and vice versa, but I wouldn't worry about this too much as the decision is whether to call his all-in bet or not.)

Personally there's no way I'm folding here. Is he really going to call with a gutshot and two overs on the flop (still less 87)? He's certainly not getting the pot odds for it, although admittedly he may be thinking of the implied odds which you will give him when he calls. JJ would have re-raised pre-flop. The only hand I'm worried about is the specific KsQs. I'd put him on something like JT, AsJs, KsJs or J9 - most likely JT.

[fimbulwinter]

kongo- please disregard the other responses. they are wrong.

we want to find the neutral EV point where calling = folding.

lets say you win 95% when they don't have the straight (JT, funky overpair etc.) and 22% when they do.

you are paying 32 to play a $105 pot. so you're getting about 2:1 on your money. really you're getting ~3.28:1 so you must have 30.5% pot equity to make the call neutral EV.

now it's just arithmetic:

.305 = x(.95) + (1-x)(.22)
.305 = .73x + .22
.085 = .73x

~11.6% of the time he must not have the straight. This obviously ignores set/set incidences etc. which make things more complicated, but suffice to say that i think you have enough "donk equity" here to make this call. you'll see spades, AT, T9 and JT more like 25% of the time i think, so you've found yourself a call.

fim

EDIT: the interesting thing to contemplate, which will really make you better, is the amount of equity you need when ahead given the fact that you feel you are ahead x% of the time. as the other players get better, your equity when ahead gets worse (as you're likely to see SF draws etc. making this play instead of donk'd twopair) however your % ahead actually goes up.

[kongo_totte]

[ QUOTE ]
I hate this fold sooooo much.
How can you give villain credit for pulling an inside card here? 2 pair, JwGK, JwFD/SD are sooooo much more likely. I'd guess you are ahead on the turn at least 80% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I find 8 7 more likely for the flopped OESD than a gut shot.

[kongo_totte]

[ QUOTE ]
kongo- please disregard the other responses. they are wrong.

we want to find the neutral EV point where calling = folding.

lets say you win 95% when they don't have the straight (JT, funky overpair etc.) and 22% when they do.

you are paying 32 to play a $105 pot. so you're getting about 2:1 on your money. really you're getting ~3.28:1 so you must have 30.5% pot equity to make the call neutral EV.

now it's just arithmetic:

.305 = x(.95) + (1-x)(.22)
.305 = .73x + .22
.085 = .73x

~11.6% of the time he must not have the straight. This obviously ignores set/set incidences etc. which make things more complicated, but suffice to say that i think you have enough "donk equity" here to make this call. you'll see spades, AT, T9 and JT more like 25% of the time i think, so you've found yourself a call.

fim

EDIT: the interesting thing to contemplate, which will really make you better, is the amount of equity you need when ahead given the fact that you feel you are ahead x% of the time. as the other players get better, your equity when ahead gets worse (as you're likely to see SF draws etc. making this play instead of donk'd twopair) however your % ahead actually goes up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank You

[raisethatmofo]

[wtfsvi]

I think to win 95% of the time when he doesn't have the straight sounds excessive. 95% of the time when you are ahead even sounds a bit much (that's disregarding TT and JJ). Villain will (as good as) always have 2 outs or more when behind. I'd go between 85% and 90%.

[raisethatmofo]

[jkkkk]

Some quick figures, we do this 10 times.

I assume he doesn't have a straight 10% of the time, because I think this is more or less the point of break even EV.

I will assume for the one time in ten that he doesn't have a straight, we do not hit our house / quads.

You must pay 30 for 70, you win the first one (He doesnt have the straight)

+70

You win the next 2.5 times

+175

You lose the next 6.5 times

-195

Totalled up this is +ev, but my math isn't correct

It doesn't counter for the sporadic events in which he will not have a straight, knock off about 30 from the 70 and we are still +EV at 10%.

I'm starting to think calling here might of been better /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[fimbulwinter]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
~3.28:1 so you must have 30.5% pot equity to make the call neutral EV.



[/ QUOTE ]

If you read my 2nd post, that is what I said moron.

[/ QUOTE ]

you still didn't get through any of the work required to get the answer. moreover you didn't contribute anything but hackneyed speculation and now a silly attempt to insult me without even having the intelligence to bypass the swear filter properly.

fim

[fimbulwinter]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey, fimbul,

F U C K Y O U

[/ QUOTE ]

The moderator has already been notified about this post.

Please use your back button to return to the previous page.




whoops, guess someone beat me to it

fim

[jkkkk]

[ QUOTE ]
11.6%

[/ QUOTE ]

Mwahaah through my twisted rushed logic, i was close. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[c_strong]

[ QUOTE ]
you are paying 32 to play a $105 pot. so you're getting about 2:1 on your money. really you're getting ~3.28:1 so you must have 30.5% pot equity to make the call neutral EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Once again, more slowly?

I agree with the 2:1, as I said in my post - actually about 2.3:1 which equates with your 30.5% pot equity.

Your 3.28:1 is 105:32, i.e. you're counting your "stake" as part of your "winnings". Have I missed something?

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you are paying 32 to play a $105 pot. so you're getting about 2:1 on your money. really you're getting ~3.28:1 so you must have 30.5% pot equity to make the call neutral EV.

[/ QUOTE ]


Once again, more slowly?

I agree with the 2:1, as I said in my post - actually about 2.3:1 which equates with your 30.5% pot equity.

Your 3.28:1 is 105:32, i.e. you're counting your "stake" as part of your "winnings". Have I missed something?

[/ QUOTE ]
I think it was a typo.

[raisethatmofo]

[kongo_totte]

[ QUOTE ]
You know what Fimbul. Your whole post was pointless. You made up the numbers in the very beginning so the rest of the math is useless.

[/ QUOTE ]

NO, it wasn't. His calculations was just what I wanted.

[amoeba]

people online don't fast play the nuts that much.

I think you have to call here.

I think you'll see JT much more often than 87.

[puzzlemoney]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you are paying 32 to play a $105 pot. so you're getting about 2:1 on your money. really you're getting ~3.28:1 so you must have 30.5% pot equity to make the call neutral EV.

[/ QUOTE ]


Once again, more slowly?

I agree with the 2:1, as I said in my post - actually about 2.3:1 which equates with your 30.5% pot equity.

Your 3.28:1 is 105:32, i.e. you're counting your "stake" as part of your "winnings". Have I missed something?

[/ QUOTE ]
I think it was a typo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't this because we're talking about pot equity at this point rather than pot odds?

In other words, the question is, "If I put in this $32 bet, what percentage of the pot do I 'own' afterwards, and is it enough to get my bet back?"

So your pot odds = $73:$22 = 2:28:1,
but your pot equity = $32/$105 = .305 = 30.5%

and it's more or less unrelated that $105:$32 = 3.28:1, because with pot equity we're worried about the percentage of the pot we're going to win.

Am I right here, fim?

[puzzlemoney]

[ QUOTE ]
EDIT: the interesting thing to contemplate, which will really make you better, is the amount of equity you need when ahead given the fact that you feel you are ahead x% of the time. as the other players get better, your equity when ahead gets worse (as you're likely to see SF draws etc. making this play instead of donk'd twopair) however your % ahead actually goes up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? Do you mean that for this situation, or generally?

I mean, I can see that here, vs. good opponents, you'd be up against only strong draws and your win percentage when ahead would drop.

But in general--when calculating this sort of thing for other types of hands you'd face--good players will have stronger hands as well, so that your 'x' above will be a smaller number, right? (You'd have to account for more sets of Jacks or Tens here, for example...)

[TheWorstPlayer]

Stronger players will play more aggressively with draws so you will be facing a made hand less frequently than against poor players. However, strong players will only play aggressively with big draws and not with marginal ones, so when you are ahead, you will be less ahead against strong players than against weak ones. Make sense?

[puzzlemoney]

[ QUOTE ]
Stronger players will play more aggressively with draws so you will be facing a made hand less frequently than against poor players. However, strong players will only play aggressively with big draws and not with marginal ones, so when you are ahead, you will be less ahead against strong players than against weak ones. Make sense?

[/ QUOTE ]

It does.

But when do we account for the strong players who have made hands? Are you saying that here they wouldn't push with top set, and thus this situation isn't valid if we're talking about strong players?

I'm just trying to find a context for fim's statement that we'll be ahead more often vs. strong players, and whether he means generally, or in draw-heavy situations like this, or when they push on the turn, or what...

Disregarding the pre-turn betting here, let's just say I'm on the turn with these cards vs. a strong player--my % to win when I'm ahead will be less because my opponent's draws will be stronger, but will I really be ahead more often? It seems like a strong player here will be betting with top set more than a poor one, and he'll be less likely to have two goofy pair. Thus, my chance to win when I'm ahead goes down, as does my chance to be ahead...

[TheWorstPlayer]

Good players will push here with strong made hands. But so will weak players. But good players will also push with big draws. Weak players won't. Think about it with some numbers. Let's say opponents hold strong made hands 50% of the time, strong draws 25% of the time and weak draws 25% of the time. Strong opponents will push with the made hands and the strong draws. So you are ahead 1/3 of the time, but you are never far ahead. Weak players will push with the made hands and let's say with 10% of the strong draws and 10% of the weak draws. So you are only ahead ~10% of the time (5%/55%) against weak players but half that time that you are ahead, you are WAY ahead. I think that is what Fim was saying.

[puzzlemoney]

Okay, so let's change the original calculations around. We'll assume a 20% chance for your opponent to draw out and win (say, top pair with a flush draw) :

.305 = x(.80) + (1-x)(.22)
.305 = .58x + .22
.085 = .58x

~14.6%

So now you have to believe that your opponent is either on that draw (or bluffing) only 85% of the time to make a call correct? That still seems like a no-brainer.

Even if we make the draw a monster (opp has Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif, for 14 outs and a 30% chance to win), we get:

.305 = x(.70) + (1-x)(.22)
.305 = .48x + .22
.085 = .48x

~17.7%

Again, you only have to keep the opponent off of a better set or the made straight 18% of the time to call?

What am I missing here? Or is this just an eaiser call than I think? Can I assume I'm ahead of a skilled opponent 82% of the time, or is the likelihood of JJ, TT, 78, KQ enough that I'd consider folding?

[wafl]

Nice post. I wonder if 95% is too high though. Agreed villain will sometimes be drawing dead but hands like AsJs (18% equity), JT (9%)and maybe KsJs(25%) are in there. I guess it depends on whether villian is donkish enough to play hands like AJo like this but against an unknown I wouldn't like to assume that.
Also, when considering cases where villian has a straight, we are putting him on hands that do not overlap with our boat/quad outs so the times he has straight we have 10 outs from 44 (rather than 46) so the straight is outdrawn 22.7 rather than 21.7% of the time. Admittedly this makes little difference.
FWIW I think this is a call, even if you include ALL the hands he can have that make a straight in his range:
- 48 straight hands (16 ways to have QK, 16 for 78, 16 for Q8).
-Then including just the hands I mentioned above (JT (9 ways),AsJs (1 way), KsJs (1 way)) and 44 (3 ways) and you are ahead 14/62~ 23%. (BTW pokerstove tells me the 99 holds up 90.5% against this range. I could add a few donk hands to get it to your 95%. This would increase the chances of being ahead and of winning when ahead and make a call even more clear).
Even if you stick the oversets in there I don't think it comes close to changing this from a call.