Aggression

[soah]

2/4 game. Lobby stats tell me it is very loose and wild. The game isn't quite full. I just logged on and I don't know if those stats were partially derived from some shorthanded play at the table. But anyway.

I spot an eight-handed game, I join, someone else leaves. Still eight-handed. I happen to be the BB just as I sit down. Actually, a player just busted out on the last hand, so I guess that makes us seven-handed. Three people limp and the sb calls. I check in the BB with Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

Flop: Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif (five players - $20)

Four of us check, and the button bets $10, SB calls, I raise to $40.

I've played with the button before. My notes on him simply contain the word "aggressive". If I'd seen him do stupid [censored] my notes would mention it so he's probably decent or good and possibly TAG or whatever. If he remembers me he should view me as solid, TAG, and sometimes tricky. SB is unknown.

[jkkkk]

I usually like it, with SB still in the hand though, I'm not sure.

Your knocking out draws (maybe) and TPWK. This play has to really make them fold more than 57% of the time ($40 into a $30 pot) otherwise getting called or raised doesn't leave you much room for playing further strong post-flop.

I don't think I like it.

[soah]

Your calculations assume that I'm bluffing. What do you think my opponents have?

[jkkkk]

AQ or KQ is a strong possibility here and I'm not assuming that you are bluffing, I'm assuming that if you get called, I really don't see how you can play the hand much further.

Sure, if one person calls, if you can tag him for a draw and set a price, I don't think you can tolerate any raises throughout for the rest of the hand though.

The possibilities:

You get re-raised on the flop, you fold.

You get two or more callers, best line is probably to check-fold, maybe lead turn for pot should the flush miss and find out where they are at.

You get one caller, you set a price on the turn, they either call, raise, or fold and I don't like the formers.

Oh yeah and maybe they fold, which is what I hope you wanted to achieve with the raise.

[xorbie]

I honestly prefer any two hearts here, except if SB calls in which case I'll take my Q6 (or if you plan on going to showdown if he calls, which I find somewhat unlikely). I like it, btw.

[TheWorstPlayer]

It's good. It's exactly analogous to the very very standard limit play of checking with TPWK to see the action behind you and folding to an EP bet while check/raising a LP bet. Very standard, IMO.

[soah]

Yeah, exactly. Usually I just check/fold these hands but I think this is a play I need to start making use of more often (hmm... part of the evolution from weak-tight to TAG?)

If I were on the button and it got checked to me I'd be betting just about any pair, on the assumption that someone would have bet if they had anything that could beat me. Given that I view the button in this hand as aggressive, I'd have to think that he would do the same. So even if he doesn't think that he is bluffing, there's still a good chance that I have him beaten. Also, the size of his bet shows weakness. If he were confident in his hand, I would expect him to charge more for people to draw against him. That's not a very friendly flop against four opponents. His bet also doesn't make sense if he has a draw; it seems more likely that he would either take a free card, or bet bigger to discourage calls from marginal hands.

The SB merely checked and called a small button bet. This isn't showing much strength either. My first thought is that he is drawing, but he also might have something like middle pair or a weak queen which he thinks may be good, but he's not sure enough to put in a raise. He's unknown of course, so I can't rule out a slowplay.

So my read for each opponent is that it's possible that they have me beaten, but their range of hands is more heavily weighted towards hands that I beat. Since I think I have the best hand, I don't want to fold. But I don't like calling here because I don't know what cards are safe to see on the turn, and between my two opponents I expect they have lots of outs. Either of them might have middle pair, the SB could have a flush draw or a straight draw, and I don't know if a king or ace will pair them either. This looks like it might be one of those situations where raising is best, folding is second best, and calling is worst.

As an added benefit, my checkraise from the BB should get a fair amount of respect. There has been a bet and a call, and I have two people to act behind me, so this does not look like I can be stealing at all. I don't think the button will call me with a made hand worse than two pair, especially if he remembers me from previous sessions. I may not have a read yet on SB, but I figure there is at least a reasonable chance that he will folds QT/QJ/etc to me. If the button calls me I figure I'm way behind and I shut down... check the turn and block the river if we get two blanks. If the SB calls I put him on a draw, and I bet 1/2 pot on a safe turn card as a pre-emptive blocking bet.

All these thoughts were going through my head in just a couple seconds as the hand took place, and just before I raised I wondered if I could make this same move with no hand at all. It's just such a great spot to steal because it doesn't look like a steal to my opponents, yet from my perspective, I already know that no one has much of a hand. It's just so... beautiful.

[Stronghands]

At first, I didn't like your line, but your reasoning has convinced me. If you get called by an MP who checked, however, I think you need to check-fold any turn or river to said caller. Otherwise, I think you need to throw in a close to pot bet on the turn if you're just called by button - you've taken the lead and need to use it. If only SB calls, I think your plan of checking turn and value-betting river would be fine.

Also, I think a move like this would work only if it were done infrequently... Not sure, still processing the move /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[jhall23]

Nice post.

How would you feel if the SB had folded to the bet so it had gotten heads up. I find that in that situation I am often pulling a stop and go and then leading the turn for about 2/3 - 3/4 pot. I think it seems ok since SB would be more likely to be drawing then the LP better who should have a much wider range of hands. I'd say I'm probably doing something like stop and go more then 50% of the time and either folding or check/raising the rest.

What do you think?

Edit: Didn't notice an MP still to act so that changes my scenario a little bit.

[TheWorstPlayer]

I'd be more likely to check/raise if it is HU at this point. Looks more like a steal and therefore more likely to get called by a worse hand.

[xorbie]

How comfortable are going to showdown though with Q6o on this board, OOP?

[jhall23]

Yeah could be, but then we are facing a big pot OOP on the turn with a mediocre hand that we aren't sure is good. So a follow up bet on the turn is going to be about 60-80. Think that getting called by worse hands overcompenstates that negative aspect?

[soah]

I don't really want to get called though, regardless of what they have. Too much chance I make a big mistake later in the hand.

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't really want to get called though, regardless of what they have. Too much chance I make a big mistake later in the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree that you don't want to get called. But if I am heads up against a late position bettor, I'm pretty happy with top pair. So multi-way, you get a fold more often, but when you're called, you're pretty guaranteed to be behind. But HU, you get a fold less often, but when called you're quite likely to be ahead. I think both are profitable.

[soah]

I was already planning to checkraise before the SB called. I felt it was likely I had the button beaten but my hand is really vulnerable. It's not really that the button can have a lot of outs against me; it's just that I really have no freaking clue which cards might hit him, and he's probably shutting down if he doesn't hit something... so it's a very basic reverse implied odds situation. If he's only putting more money in the pot if he improves, then letting him see more cards is just giving away equity on a silver platter. I'm sick of playing the best hand weakly and getting rivered by trash, and I decided to do something about it, and then I decided to post it here to see if it's good.

Also, just calling lets the two players behind me get a chance to see the turn getting 4:1 immediate odds. I'd rather clear them out of the way or make them pay to chase. Most players in this game are very straightforward and their flop check means they can't beat top pair yet.

[jhall23]

[ QUOTE ]
I was already planning to checkraise before the SB called. I felt it was likely I had the button beaten but my hand is really vulnerable. It's not really that the button can have a lot of outs against me; it's just that I really have no freaking clue which cards might hit him, and he's probably shutting down if he doesn't hit something... so it's a very basic reverse implied odds situation. If he's only putting more money in the pot if he improves, then letting him see more cards is just giving away equity on a silver platter. I'm sick of playing the best hand weakly and getting rivered by trash, and I decided to do something about it, and then I decided to post it here to see if it's good.

Also, just calling lets the two players behind me get a chance to see the turn getting 4:1 immediate odds. I'd rather clear them out of the way or make them pay to chase. Most players in this game are very straightforward and their flop check means they can't beat top pair yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, when I was making the post I forgot there were other players left to act, definetly changes the situation. I pretty much only do the stop and go when HU. It's something I've been doing more of recently though I am not sure how I feel about it yet. With a flush draw on board probably not as good of a spot for it as a LP bettor will often bet their flush draws when checked to then won't make a mistake on the turn much (unless you bet when the flush hit's and he is worried about it when holding a better Q)