folding AA on flop?

[rivered_again]

Do you guys see any reason to continue with this hand?

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 3-bets</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, SB calls, Hero folds, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.


Notice the SB cold calling a capped bet! I don't think I'd ever actually seen that before. And he folded on the turn to a single bet! /images/graemlins/confused.gif

The only reason I could think of at the time for continuing was for the backdoor flush draw, which would cost me 3 SB to see the turn. If /images/graemlins/club.gif on the turn keep going, if not bail. But I figured I was already up against a straight or a set, and the backdoor flush was unlikely.

[Brice]

So, uh, was this your first hand at Party Poker or something?

[rivered_again]

[ QUOTE ]
So, uh, was this your first hand at Party Poker or something?

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, not really. If you're implying that all the other players were overplaying weak hands because players on Party Poker generally suck, then I think you're wrong because even those bad players know that you cannot bluff in a 6-way pot. They either had a good hand or a good draw. With 5 other people capping the flop on a coordinated board, AA felt pretty weak.

I've never folded AA this early and I was wondering if I jumped the gun, that's all.

[detruncate]

You're getting about 11:1 on your call (33:3 if I'm counting correctly). 4 outs would be a clear call. 3 outs would be ok. 2.5 outs would be close.

Spiking a set may or may not be enough, but it will give us a redraw to a boat. Call it 1-1.5 outs. We have a BD nut flush draw, which is another 1-1.5 outs (I'm inclined to discount this due to the likelihood of other flush draws being out). We have a BD nut straight draw for .5-1 outs (also discounted a bit).

So... a conservative estimate will give us at least 2.5 outs. At 17.8:1, we'd have to make up ~4 BB. Seems like a reasonable possibility in a huge pot with multiple aggressors on the flop. And remember that we're working with our minimum estimate.

Finally, the pot is huge. This should make us more inclined toward loose calls.

I see the turn and go from there.

Edit: spelling

[NDHand]

If you didnt have the A of clubs this would be a clear fold. However in this insane big pot with AA(and A clubs) you really can't fold here. Your meager A/BD flush draws outs are enough to warrant a call here and there's always a slight possibility that you have the best hands. Data on villains would be helpful to determine the value of their raises.

[xenthebrain]

You have an overpair with a backdoorflushdraw to the nuts in a huge pot.

People go nuts here not because they hold a monster, but because the pot is so huge.

You would get this action from AQ, KK maybe even AJ or AK of clubs. And I believe their hands might even be worse. No one raised preflop.

Of course their is a straight possible and two pairs, in which cases you have outs.
I'd see at least the turn and it's action.

btw, I cannot remember that I ever folded aces on the flop in low limit.

[Black Aces 518]

Before I got into 2 + 2 and SSHE, I had a hand very similar to this in a live 3/6 game. I had A /images/graemlins/spade.gifA /images/graemlins/club.gif on the button. 6 limpers, I raise, all call. 9 to the flop. Flop is 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gifJ /images/graemlins/heart.gifQ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. There was a bet, call, call, raise, call, call before it got to me. I folded, figuring a straight likely to be out there, and I couldn't even count on the A /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Also, the raise was from a woman, who are GENERALLY a bit more passive about raising non big hands. This time she was raising Q3 though. 55 called 3 bets on the flop, 2 on the turn and rivered a 5 to win. When I saw the hands, I knew I had seriously overestimated the sense of my opponents. Reading SSHE and remembering the size of the pot, it made me sick to have mucked.

[DeathDonkey]

I'm surprised everyone hates this fold. The A /images/graemlins/club.gif makes it close, as you noted, but you could be drawing reeeeeeeaaaaaaaal thin.

-DeathDonkey

[gharp]

So you made your screen name "Black Aces", ensuring that you would never forget.... /images/graemlins/wink.gif

(And I wouldn't fold on that flop either, for the reasons that detruncate and others already mentioned).

[Entity]

Without reads this is pretty tough. It's close enough that I'd fold without the A/images/graemlins/club.gif and I don't think it's a bad fold with it, but you might be able to continue with the hand with marginal profitability.

Rob

[Black Aces 518]

Heh, yeah at least partially. It's also just my favorite hand to find, but it does remind me to keep important concepts in mind.

Obviously my hand would be closer to a fold than the OP, due to his BDNFD. But I didn't understand at the time how to account for backdoor draws or how little a chance to win I needed to continue in a pot like that or how little hand the other players needed to continue. That guy flipping 55 was an eyeopener for sure.

[newfant]

I don't fold this on the flop. There are too many draws (straight and flush) that could be pumping this pot.

Stay in on the flop and call down the turn and river unless the action gets too crazy. You're getting good odds on the flop (7:1) and you have the back door flush draw and the board could pair on the turn or river and put you ahead of a flopped 2-pair.

[Dave G.]

I've gotta see the turn with this hand. You have two backdoor draws that will give you the nuts which are worth about 2.5 outs. If you spike an A you will be in pretty good shape and the pot is huge. Getting 11:1 (33:3 assuming the 3 players behind you all call) you've almost got enough to just call for the backdoor draws alone. You will easily make up the difference in implied odds with this many people liking their hands.

I'd be more inclined to fold without the A/images/graemlins/club.gif though.