Fold QQ to this tightie?

[ryanghall]

Empire 200 NL full ring. I have $188, Villain (10/4/2.4) has me covered.

I get Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif Q /images/graemlins/club.gif UTG+1

1 fold, I raise to $8. Villain calls in MP. The rest fold.

Flop is J /images/graemlins/club.gif 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

I bet $18, he calls.

Turn is J /images/graemlins/spade.gif

I bet $35, he min-raises to $70, I fold.

The trouble here is that if he has a J, it's got to be JJ with his tight ways. 99 and 33 are both quite possible, it would seem. AA/KK are also quite possible. However, it's an ideal board to bluff at. The problem is that if I call that $35, I'm going to have to pay my whole stack to see if he's bluffing at it. Therefore, I think it's a fold.

Comments?

[anacrime]

If you had quad jacks, would you raise your opponent that bets into you? I wouldn't. If he's playing a missed AK or trying to represent the jack, I'm going to call on the turn and hope he fires again on it on the river. If he's bluffing, I'm not going to risk getting myself made and having him giving up. If he's got an over pair like AA, KK, or QQ, he might still think he's good after the river. By just calling with four jacks, I allow my opponent to get "lucky" on the river and complete his set, giving him the nut full house on board. Depends on how much credit you give your opponent.

He could also be representing the jack, since he's pretty sure you don't have it. I'm new to the game and I only play NL50, but I do this quite often in these types of situations.

If he does have quads in this hand, I think he misplayed it. With the minraise, he will have 99 or 33 most of the time.

BTW, you say he is a "tightie" in the title but you don't elaborate on this. I'm assuming you have a large sample size of hands playing with him to lable him this. If you've only been playing with him for a single seesion, he might have been getting cold cards and then he sees AJsuited, his eyes light up like Christmas as he shoves 8$ in to see a flop.

[ryanghall]

I give his stats at the top of my post. His VPIP is 10 over about 200 hands, which is usually enough to get an accurate reading on someone.

Ryan

[anacrime]

Oops, I missed the first line.

JJ seems a little more likely then. He is probably just a pretty terrible player.

[fuzzbox]

Good fold against tightie mc tigherson 99 is most likely.