K-high on the river; A rare bluff from me

[marand]

Villian is too loose preflop, but not terrible after the flop.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.75 BB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (6.75 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font> ...

I very very rarely bluff on the river, but decided to here.
I would have bet any blank card (thought he was very likely to be drawing to either a straight or a flush).
Is this standard?
If he folds, does that mean that I bluffed with the best hand?

Thoughts?

[sy_or_bust]

The flop play makes this a good try. A thinking player can put you on a pair here and sometimes lay down A-high. FWIW, this is a standard bluff for me against tight-ish opponents that make free card plays. It seems to succeed quite often, and certainly enough to be profitable.

Also, you will always fold KQ here, which is nice.

[jrobb83]

[ QUOTE ]

If he folds, does that mean that I bluffed with the best hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. He never folds an ace here and folds a pair even less.

[kurosh]

I think he folds an ace-high flush draw here.

[jrobb83]

He 3-bet an UTG raise preflop, if he has an ace high flush it is likely with a high enough kicker to call a bet with.

Checking behind the turn like that tends to induce so many bluffs that people will call with weak holdings.

[aflaba]

I don't think that he folds any hands that are better than yours.

I think the possibility is very slim that he would fold an A.

If you had 89h then I'd like the bluff.

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think that he folds any hands that are better than yours.

I think the possibility is very slim that he would fold an A.

If you had 89h then I'd like the bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does this mean that you'd check the river with our KQ-high, intending to call a bet and win at showdown? Or hoping for a check behind? I would tend to think we'll fold more better/chopping hands with a bet than we'll induce worse hands with a check, namely because I think there are few worse hands that he could have.

I think this is a good river bet, we certainly wont fold a pair, but since the only pair and flushdraw (Jacks, top pair) would not have checked the turn I think it is less likely that he has a pair. I think it's certainly possible that he'll fold an A-high flush draw as well.

Sometimes this is a cheap-showdown move by a bad player with something like 77 though.

Surf

[dave44]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think that he folds any hands that are better than yours.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you had 89h then I'd like the bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]
Giving hero a worse hand adds very close to nothing to this bluff.

[pyroponic]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

If he folds, does that mean that I bluffed with the best hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. He never folds an ace here and folds a pair even less.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree, the fact that Hero check-raised the flop indicates that A high will be beaten most of the time here.
If no raises were put in on the flop, that'd be a different story.

[aflaba]

I disagree strongly.

The board is extremly drawy. I can easily see Button play a draw like he has played in this hand.

In fact, he "must" be on either a draw (or possibly a dumb A-high). Really the way he has played it, 3-betting the flop for a free card. With all that cooordination on the board. It screams draw.

Since he 3-bet before the flop he is likly to have high draws: AK, AQ, KQ. But he will also have a bunch of other cards alot of the time. At least that is my experience.

On the river he won't fold A-high. Maybe not KQ either.

Hero needs to check-call to induce bluffs from all the crazy hands villain would play sometimes.

If he had 89 he should bet, hoping that KQ all the crazy hands villain will play sometimes fold.

That is what I think at least.

[aflaba]

Villain did 3-bet before the flop. I think that makes him most likly to have AK, AQ the way he has played it. KQ is very likly as well.


By betting often hero loses 1BB to AK &amp; AQ. (they would check behind)

By betting sometimes he wins half the pot, 3.5BB, when KQ folds to his bet.

Looking at this alone I think check-calling is better.


But it is very important that frequently villain will have a lower rank draw. A normal 3-bet does not mean great hand. He needs to check to induce bluffs from these hands.


I think you are right surfbullet that sometimes this is a bad play by villain with a pair. All the more reason to check and hope that he checks behind.


I check-call this.

[marand]

Villian folded and hero took the pot.

I still don't know if he folded a better hand than me though.
Could possibly be a split or maybe he folded an ace since he got convinced that I had a pair after the check/raise on the flop.

But I cannot think of one reasonable hand he could have that I beat on the river.
He did 3-bet me preflop so somehing like Q9 or 98 is hardly reasonable to assume.

The reason I posted this hand is that I almost never bluff on the river. I think this is like the 4th time in 20k hands at 10/20 so about once every 5000 hands!
I thought that this would be a good time to bluff, but a lot of you disagree.

When do you think it is profitable to bluff on the river in a 5/10 or 10/20 game?

[dave44]

[ QUOTE ]
But he will also have a bunch of other cards alot of the time. At least that is my experience.

[/ QUOTE ]
Name some hands that his opponent could've played this way that KQ is ahead of. I see none.

When all the hands are ahead of KQ and all the hands are ahead of 98, Hero's hand hardly matters and changing it adds no value to his river bluff.

[Mig]

[ QUOTE ]

Sometimes this is a cheap-showdown move by a bad player with something like 77 though.

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

If you have 77 here and you are the button, you fire on the turn and check behind on the river or you fold to the flop cheraise ?

I will most likely fire the turn here and prolly check behind on the river ? WHat would you do with 77 and having the button here?

[smacksoup]

check/calling even a tame board like this j-high is suicide with k-high, seeing as how he three-bet preflop. unless he's a maniac, you lose to EVERYTHING.

[smacksoup]

this looked like as good a spot as any.

[aflaba]

[ QUOTE ]
check/calling even a tame board like this j-high is suicide with k-high, seeing as how he three-bet preflop. unless he's a maniac, you lose to EVERYTHING.

[/ QUOTE ]

What hands that beat Hero could villain have? Villain is almost always on a draw here, right? The obvious draws are AK, AQ, KQ. The only one of these that might bet the river is KQ. Therefore Hero should call a bet. Folding is bad.

As I wrote my experience is that villain could easily have other draws as well, Q9s, 89s... whatever. A 3-bet does not mean a great hand from the majority of opponents 100% of the time, or even close. I believe that hero should check-call to catch bluffs from these. Definhetly not bluff the river.

Even if the opponent could only hold AK, AQ, KQ, check-calling would still be best ( here (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=2814079&amp;page=0&amp;view=c ollapsed&amp;sb=5&amp;o=14&amp;vc=1)).

I can't believe people don't agree with me here, crazy people /images/graemlins/smile.gif or maybe I am crazy, nah