Raise the river?

[pokerjunky]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls.

Flop: (7 SB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls.

River: (6.50 BB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 caps</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB

I figured villain was more likely to have aces, kings, or a set of tens or sixes than he was to have the flush. Anybody play it the same?

[jjacky]

no, i wouldn't 3-bet the river. if he had AA, KK or TT, you would probably have seen more action on the turn (maybe on the flop). the possibility that he has 66 is remote.

looks very much like a flush to me. and if he has the flush. you lose 2 more bets when he has the flush (if he caps it what is very likely), while you win only one if he has something else. call.

[Mallick]

Any read?

I think if he had a set or AA, as you mentioned, he'd be more likely to raise the turn and not wait for the river.

I'd probably just call the raise. But maybe that's too weak? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[mr pink]

the river should be posted as:

Hero bets, MP2 raises, Hero ???

you didn't know he was gonna cap the river, neither should we. it taints the responses.

personally, i just call here anyway though. if he's bluff raising the river, he's probably not gonna call a 3-bet and if he's got the goods, you're gonna be staring at a cap.

otoh, if you can 3-bet and fold to cap... maybe. but that's still pretty stupid because you're folding top set, and that sucks.

[private joker]

I'd just call the raise too. You're risking 2 bets (since you have to call a cap) to win 1, so I don't see a lot of value in the 3-bet.

[KDawgCometh]

i'm not raising that river. I think if he had AA or KK a raise would've happened much earlier. I can't really see him raising w/o a flush on this river. He could be raising with two pair here, but for all of the times that he is raising with two pair here, I think he is raising with a flush tons more. I don't think you you are good here 2/3 of the time here for a raise to be smart