River Decision

[adamstewart]

Unfortunately no reads or stats for this one..


Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds.

Turn: (3 BB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

River: (5 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="blue">HERO ...? </font>

Final Pot: 7 BB

[Haupt_234]

My standard play is to bet this river. I would feel 95% confident I am ahead against an unknown given his play. The flush and straight draw did miss, but I don't think checking the river to induce a bluff is better than just betting it.

There is just a better chance he is calling down with a smaller pocket pair, a weaker 9, or even a draw which hit the turn or river card. Add in the occassional donk who calls with A-high, and I think the action is pretty clear.

Haupt_234

[baronzeus]

You can check to try to induce a bluff. You don't want to be raised and be forced to fold

[marand]

I would probably check/call and hope he bluffs with a busted draw like QT. The "no read" part makes it a difficult though. If he was calling on the flop with a split pair you only beat a 9 with a worse kicker.

[mungpo]

I would bet the river.

[krishanleong]

check call

Krishan

[jfresh]

i usually check call here... i think the times where i pick off a bluff + the times where i pay off a raise covers any thin EV of valuebetting

[pshabi]

I've been check/calling here regularly as well. I've started to wonder if I do this too much though.

[GetThere1Time]

Is the check/call correct because players are more aggro and will bluff more rivers at 10/20? Because at 5/10 I'm betting this all day and twice on Fridays.

[Pat Southern]

I bet and call a raise.

[Pat Southern]

[ QUOTE ]
Is the check/call correct because players are more aggro and will bluff more rivers at 10/20? Because at 5/10 I'm betting this all day and twice on Fridays.

[/ QUOTE ]

word

[adamstewart]

I keep flip-flopping back and forth on the decision between:

(i) betting
(ii) check/calling


Betting has the advantage of betting for value when ahead, but also potentially wasting bet(s) when called or check-raised by a better hand.

Check/calling may induce a bluff from a worse hand (like a broken spade-flush draw). Further we will not be bluff-raised out of a pot with this line.


By the river, if I bet, the only worse hands that are going to call are paired 9's with worse kickers, or lower pocket pairs. A broken flush draw is a likely holding for villain, but again, he's not going to call a bet with that!

Given the board by the river, villain seems to have a good chance of having a Jack with weak kicker or just rivered trip sixes.



The fact that so many people are differing with their opinions here leads me to believe that this decision is very close, and likely won't make too much of a difference in terms of EV. Nevertheless, these concepts remain important to discuss.


Adam

[surfdoc]

[ QUOTE ]
I keep flip-flopping back and forth on the decision between:

(i) betting
(ii) check/calling


Betting has the advantage of betting for value when ahead, but also potentially wasting bet(s) when called or check-raised by a better hand.

Check/calling may induce a bluff from a worse hand (like a broken spade-flush draw). Further we will not be bluff-raised out of a pot with this line.


By the river, if I bet, the only worse hands that are going to call are paired 9's with worse kickers, or lower pocket pairs. A broken flush draw is a likely holding for villain, but again, he's not going to call a bet with that!

Given the board by the river, villain seems to have a good chance of having a Jack with weak kicker or just rivered trip sixes.



The fact that so many people are differing with their opinions here leads me to believe that this decision is very close, and likely won't make too much of a difference in terms of EV. Nevertheless, these concepts remain important to discuss.


Adam

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you have this one thought out correctly. My preference in this situation is to avoid doing anything that leads to me folding without a showdown. I think there are many players capable of a desperation river bluff raise with the missed draw and that combined with the J calling and the trip 6s raising really favors a river check.