PDA

View Full Version : Quack Quack Quandry - 11's


ClaytonN
07-06-2005, 07:31 PM
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">UTG (t403)</font>
UTG+1 (t1030)
MP1 (t1350)
MP2 (t727)
CO (t1710)
Button (t735)
<font color="#C00000">SB (t1370)</font>
Hero (t675)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG pushes for 403, 6 folds, Hero ????

pergesu
07-06-2005, 07:38 PM
I would fold here. He has a big range of hands, but you still don't want to be calling with just deuces. I fold and look for a better spot.

johnnybeef
07-06-2005, 07:46 PM
this is the only 22 thread that i will ever answer and it is only because i like you clayton.......this is the easiest fold in the world. you are risking over half of your stack on a hand that stands to be a coinlip AT BEST. Check out pokerstove, and see how 22, and 33 rank against such hands as 88, Q9, A7, etc. you will be quite surprised.

lastchance
07-06-2005, 08:01 PM
22 is a helluva lot better than Q9o, though a helluva lot worse than 88, and worse than A7o.

HonestIago15
07-06-2005, 08:03 PM
You'd be be better off folding here and pushing any two next hand than calling.

valenzuela
07-06-2005, 08:03 PM
Whats wrong with a coinflip getting 3 to 5 odds. I call here.

jedi
07-06-2005, 08:04 PM
[ QUOTE ]
22 is a helluva lot better than Q9o

[/ QUOTE ]

No, it's not.

kyro
07-06-2005, 08:07 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Whats wrong with a coinflip getting 3 to 5 odds. I call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're only a coinflip if you ignore pocket pairs...

johnnybeef
07-06-2005, 08:08 PM
[ QUOTE ]
22 is a helluva lot better than Q9o, though a helluva lot worse than 88, and worse than A7o.

[/ QUOTE ]

wrong answer


22 vs q9o = 51.1/48.9
22 v q9s = 48.1/51.9
22 vs random hand = 50.3%
q9o vs random hand = 55.4%
q9s vs random hand =55.4%

lastchance
07-06-2005, 08:08 PM
What kind of hand ranges are you using?

I mean, ok, Q9o isn't a helluva lot better, but it's pretty signifigant. 22 is a top 20-25% hand, and Q9 is a 35% hand, unless I'm completely wrong.

johnnybeef
07-06-2005, 08:11 PM
[ QUOTE ]
What kind of hand ranges are you using?

I mean, ok, Q9o isn't a helluva lot better, but it's pretty signifigant. 22 is a top 20-25% hand, and Q9 is a 35% hand, unless I'm completely wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

you are

edit: according to hpfap 22 is a group 7 hand, q9s is group 5, q9 off is group 8

gumpzilla
07-06-2005, 08:11 PM
The advice so far is pretty spot on, in my opinion. There aren't a whole lot of situations where I'm going to be excited about calling with 22, and this isn't one of them. While UTG is pushing with a wide range, this doesn't really help you, as the only hands you do genuinely well against contain another 2. The rest of the time, you're either very close to 50-50 on one side of the other or a heavy dog. Although you are getting 5-3, you're probably better off just making some steals with the 5.5 BB you'll have left following this.

valenzuela
07-06-2005, 08:15 PM
6-11 odds clearly compensate the fact that u will see PPs, Im calling here, Im not folding a potential coinflip.

johnnybeef
07-06-2005, 08:21 PM
anyone who says otherwise is a fish.

lastchance
07-06-2005, 08:31 PM
Ok, let's run through some ranges of my choosing:
99-AA, AK-AQ = 5%
22 = 34%
Q9 = 25%

66-AA, AK-AT = 10%
22 = 36%
Q9 = 32%

44+, A7+, KJ+ = 15%
22 = 40%
Q9 = 34%

22+, A2+, K9+, QJ+ = 30%
22 = 44%
Q9 = 36%

22+, A2+, K2+, Q7+, JT = 40%
22 = 47%
Q9 = 42%
22+, A2+, K2+, Q2+, J7+, T9 = 50%
22 = 47%
Q9 = 45%

22+, A2+, K2+, Q2+, J2+, T5+, 96+, 86+, T2s+, 94s+, 84s+, 74s+, 64s+, 53s+, 43s+ = 70%
22 = 49%
Q9 = 49%

You can see that 22 is a lot better unless your opponent is pushing an insanely wide range. Still, I'm folding. I figure I'm 45%, and pot odds aren't that great. (I'm also folding Q9, of course, and probably A7, 88 is a really easy call).

johnnybeef
07-06-2005, 08:50 PM
Great analysis.....thank you.

lastchance
07-06-2005, 08:55 PM
Well, thanks for pushing me to do some actual work on this.

ClaytonN
07-06-2005, 11:37 PM
K, well, I was planning on folding but SB called. QJ from original pusher, you guys were close.

It was one of those "in the moment" deals where I figured there is no way in hell I was calling. This was just to make sure my inclincations were somewhat correct.