33 ITM, call here?

[Matt R.]

Party $20+2. Do you call here? If not, what's your calling range?

Edited to add: The pusher seemed to play pretty standard on the bubble -- not overly aggressive. ITM play's only gone on a few hands, and I have no reads in particular.

#Game No : 2319948253
***** Hand History for Game 2319948253 *****
NL Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:13702129 Level:7 Blinds(150/300) - Wednesday, July 06, 16:47:54 EDT 2005
Table Table 14003 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 3
Seat 7: bigboatn ( $2690 )
Seat 5: MattR81 ( $2580 )
Seat 6: michael5537 ( $2730 )
Trny:13702129 Level:7
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to MattR81 [ 3d 3s ]
michael5537 folds.
bigboatn is all-In [2540]
MattR81 is all-In [2280]
>You have options at Table 13804 Table!.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 6h, 6d, Td ]
>You have options at Table 13850 Table!.
** Dealing Turn ** [ Ah ]
** Dealing River ** [ 2c ]
bigboatn shows [ 4d, 4s ] two pairs, sixes and fours.
MattR81 shows [ 3d, 3s ] two pairs, sixes and threes.
bigboatn wins 110 chips from side pot #1 with two pairs, sixes and fours.
bigboatn wins 5160 chips from the main pot with two pairs, sixes and fours.
MattR81 finished in third place and won $40.
gg
MattR81 has left the table.
Game #2319949867 starts.

[kyro]

The blinds are not high enough here for you to be praying for a coinflip.

[Matt R.]

I agree. But the other side of the argument, and what I was thinking at the time, is that I was willing to take a coinflip to be in a commanding position to go for first should I win. And it's essentially like a heads-up hand, and I don't fold too many pocket pairs with <9 BB's when it's HU. Maybe I like to call too much ITM though. What do you need here to call?

[kyro]

Look at the stacks. You're not in trouble. Plenty of time to push that same 33 from the button in 2 hands.

I'd call with 77+...maybe 66.

[gildwulf]

The problem with 22-33 is that you are only a slight favorite even to almost any steal. So even if he's stealing your blind you are only a slight favorite...

I would call this heads up but not three players with an OK stack.

[octaveshift]

[ QUOTE ]
But the other side of the argument, and what I was thinking at the time, is that I was willing to take a coinflip to be in a commanding position to go for first should I win. And it's essentially like a heads-up hand, and I don't fold too many pocket pairs with <9 BB's when it's HU. Maybe I like to call too much ITM though. What do you need here to call?

[/ QUOTE ]

But it's not a HU hand, it's 3 handed, and this guy voluntarily pushed.

With no read, I would call with TT+, AJ+.

[Matt R.]

Wow. I'm not saying you're wrong, but that seems really tight to me. I plugged in some random hands in poker stove that seem fairly reasonable -- AA-22, Axs, A6o+, K8s+, K9o+, QJ. My equity versus this range is 45.3%. Pot odds dictate I should call if this range is correct. Note that questionable hands that I left out (maybe he'll push Ax, or more suited kings), are hands that I'm ahead of.

I do think this could be a fold (and I thought so afterwards), but I think it's way closer than only calling TT+, AJ+ here.

[ravensfan]

I'm curious but wouldn't you be an underdog vs. mid SC, such as 78s? Also, if he's a standard player and if pushing this hard (he's at 8.5x bb and all in), he may have a decent hand. Or would he push all in any time he pushed? (Yes, i'm new to the STTs) I don't know when it's standard to push all in. I've heard 10x BB, but i'm curious if this is the norm, or if standard raises - 3x bb, apply down to say, 7-8x bb.

[octaveshift]

[ QUOTE ]
Wow. I'm not saying you're wrong, but that seems really tight to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Gap concept in action! (I am not calling a push with 33.)

I am not saying my path is the correct one, but it's been working out pretty well for me. I don't see a reason to risk my whole stack on a 50/50 shot here.

[raaustge]

I fold. Heres my reasoning. You arent in trouble and sure it could be a coinflip, but even then your only a slight favorite. Isnt it possible the villian is holding a bigger pocket pair in which case you are a huge dog? Come to think of it he was. Doesnt make sense to me to risk here. Now i dont mind pushing your 33 from the button because your the one pushing, and they dont know what there up against. But calling all your chips when you could be a huge dog/slight favorite with your decent chip size isnt the right play here. You can wait for a better spot. Just some deep thoughts from a crappy poker player.

[Matt R.]

You're right, I'd be a slight dog against a mid-suited connector, but it would be pretty atypical to find a player who pushes something like 8 high with a healthy stack into another healthy stack. That's why I didn't include it in the range. As for your other question, with 8.5x the BB, any raise should be all-in, unless you're doing some kind of trapping -- which would actually look fishy at this point anyway. Personally, I use the push or fold rule with anything 8x the BB or less, and that's pushing it, barring weird circumstances. Pushing with 10x or less is common for me, unless I'm holding something I want action with.

[runner4life7]

I fold and its not even close, maybe roulette is more of your style of game, but this is poker.

[gildwulf]

You are also a dog against 9Ts, TJs, and QJs.

[Matt R.]

Gee, thanks for the in depth reply. By the way, if it's a fold, and it's not even close, why are the pot odds in my favor for a call given the hand range I put villain on? Is my range that far off, and if so, what should the range be?

I'll bet no matter what you change in the hand range, it won't change my equity significantly if it's reasonable.

By the way, I'd play roulette all day if it were +EV.

[pergesu]

[ QUOTE ]
Gee, thanks for the in depth reply. By the way, if it's a fold, and it's not even close, why are the pot odds in my favor for a call given the hand range I put villain on? Is my range that far off, and if so, what should the range be?

I'll bet no matter what you change in the hand range, it won't change my equity significantly if it's reasonable.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm surprised nobody has done ICM on this yet.

With the range you gave (22+,A2s+,A6o+,K8s+,K9o+,QJs,QJo), it's a bad call, costing you $2.79. Call hands: 77+,AJo+,ATs+ (8%)

[valenzuela]

I fold for the reasons stated above, if second and third place payed the same I would call.

PD: I will explode next time someone says calling coin-flips is roullete. If pot odds dictate calling a coinflip is correct , u call. If pot odds dont u fold. In this case they dont.

[Matt R.]

I like that range a lot, although personally I'd find it hard to fold 66 here. I just noticed that I made an error when calculating the pot odds myself -- I was including the extra 110 chips in the pot that I couldn't win since I was covered. It's actually a very slightly -chipEV call, so I see why ICM said that.

pergesu, you seem to be well versed in ICM. Can you provide an intuitive explanation why, once you're ITM in a sit 'n go, your ChipEV and $EV differ in many situations? I don't know the math behind it, but I would think that since the payout is top heavy and there is not much difference in money between 2nd and 3rd, that ICM calcs should correspond very closely to pot odds when it's 3 way.

[donny5k]

That 25% of potential winnings in 2nd place changes things a lot over winner take all pot odds decisions. (When I say a lot it's relative of course)

[Matt R.]

Nevermind actually, I thought of a really clear example where the 3rd stack has 1 chip left and you're dead even with the other big stack. You obviously should fold slightly +chip EV situations here if it puts you all-in. Excuse my ignorance, as this may be exactly what ICM is -- but when it's 3 way, for instance, and stack sizes are dead even, are chipEV and $EV exactly equal? I would think this is true, so please correct me if I'm wrong.

Also, as it applies to this hand, I would think chipEV and $EV should be very close to equal (maybe exactly equal?) since I'm the short stack and no definite future situations will arise where that will change anytime soon (e.g. the other two will get all-in preflop against each other).

[pergesu]

[ QUOTE ]
Nevermind actually, I thought of a really clear example where the 3rd stack has 1 chip left and you're dead even with the other big stack. You obviously should fold slightly +chip EV situations here if it puts you all-in. Excuse my ignorance, as this may be exactly what ICM is -- but when it's 3 way, for instance, and stack sizes are dead even, are chipEV and $EV exactly equal? I would think this is true, so please correct me if I'm wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]
You should fold WAY more than marginally +cEV situations. I'm not gonna get into whether you should fold aces or not, but you really should let the 1 chip guy bust out.

If all three of you have the same stacks, +cEV is not equal to $EV, for the simple reason that winning 100% of the chips in play yields only 50% of the prizepool.

As someone said the other day, you make more money turning a 3rd into a 1st than you do a 10th into a 3rd.

[donny5k]

Wouldn't it be more like 75% of the remaining prize pool instead of 50%? The 20% of the prize pool is already taken for granted (sunk cost decision making). Your point is still valid.

[lastchance]

1st only pays 50% of the prize pool.

[Matt R.]

Right.. I just said slightly so there could be no argument and the example was clear-cut.

What seems odd to me, such as with your aces example (lol, I'm going to turn this thread into a fold aces preflop thread), is that say you're in BB with a hand "x". Let's pretend it's live play and the SB shows you his hand "y", then pushes all-in. How big of a favorite does "x" need to be over "y" to make this a call (assuming, as before, the 3rd stack has 1 chip, and SB has you covered by 1 chip). Since, as you pointed out, you can at MOST get 50% of the prize pool, I would think it would need to be a very very big favorite over hand "y" for you to call. However, if this is true, shouldn't the SB push any two no matter what? Here is what makes this odd to me --that pushing any two cards in this spot, even if BB KNOWS he's a very strong favorite, is unexploitable. I'm sure this is getting into the heart of the matter of why blind stealing is so important in tourneys. But, this specific situation where you KNOW you're a big favorite over SB's hand is strange to me because, if you win, you're pretty much guaranteed 1st. I think it's much more obvious when there's a larger disparity in stack sizes, but I don't really understand how SB pushing into a stack that can knock him down to one chip -- when he knows BB's hand is a favorite -- is the correct play. Maybe my logic is a bit off as I haven't really proofread what I'm saying, but essentially I'm going along with the folding aces idea. Can anyone expound on this?

And just another point that I'm trying to wrap my head around. You're ITM, all chip stacks are equal. You're in a +chip EV situation for all your chips. Since you can ONLY win 50% of the prize pool, you should not call if the +chipEV is slight. However, this means that the other player should put you all in, even if he KNOWS he is behind, because he knows you can't call (assuming he knows you use ICM perfectly). Wouldn't this make decisions based purely on ICM exploitable, since the other player can get you to fold even if he's behind?

I'd love to continue in this discussion, but I have to go. So, if my ideas are retarded, please don't be too mean as I can't defend myself until tomorrow.

[runner4life7]

Thats my point, this is a fold and thats why i made the roulette analogy. If the chips stacks were not all close its a different story. But calling with 3s here I just cannot fathom. Are you that scared to play? You have to be confident in your play so that you dont have to call with 3s there is no skill in that. I just think this is a terrible call and cant see how you could even think of arguing differently. And thanks for the ICM calculations to prove this.

[flyingmoose]

[ QUOTE ]
1st only pays 50% of the prize pool.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you should be concerned with money already won. Once ITM, first pays 75% of the remaining prize pool.

[pergesu]

[ QUOTE ]
However, if this is true, shouldn't the SB push any two no matter what? Here is what makes this odd to me --that pushing any two cards in this spot, even if BB KNOWS he's a very strong favorite, is unexploitable.

[/ QUOTE ]
Once you understand this, you can quit your job and PROFIT BITCH!!!

[valenzuela]

i kinda understand ure analogy now..anyway it was persegu who runned up the ICM numbers.

[pokerlaw]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1st only pays 50% of the prize pool.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you should be concerned with money already won. Once ITM, first pays 75% of the remaining prize pool.

[/ QUOTE ]

the whole prize pool is still "remaining" in the sense that no player out of the 3 remaining has claimed any of it. 1st is 5 units, 2nd is 3, and 3rd is 2.

Granted, once ITM, the dynamic bet'n cEv and $ev can change dramacitally. But I don't see how viewing 1st as 75% of the remaining pool is the best way to look at it.

[Freudian]

I would only make this call if I had good reason to believe the other players would outplay me.

And I have yet to have that feeling (of course there have been spots where I truly has been outplayed in the past, but knowing it before and after the fact are two completely different things).