Is knowing the true odds that important

[Focused]

Hi all, I'm a profitable sng player (35% roi) but still have a poor knowledge of pot odds etc. How much of a hole is this in my game. Are there any pros who dont rely so much on mathematics. Lastly what's the best resource to learn pot odds etc..in the easeist way. thanks alot

[uuDevil]

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Hi all, I'm a profitable sng player (35% roi) but still have a poor knowledge of pot odds etc. How much of a hole is this in my game. Are there any pros who dont rely so much on mathematics. Lastly what's the best resource to learn pot odds etc..in the easeist way. thanks alot

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If you really are a winner, you must have a good intuitive feel for what is/is not a profitable draw.

Any decent basic book will have this information. I'm most familiar with books on limit Hold'em, so I recommend any of the following:

King Yao's Weighing the Odds in Hold'em Poker
Ed Miller's Small Stakes Hold'em or Getting Started in Hold'em Poker
Mathew Hilger's [i]Internet Texas Hold'em[i]

[Focused]

Thanks devil, I've played 600 sngs with 35% roi and 45% is 600 tournies enough to tell if your a winning player. Yeah I estimate the odds but don't know exactly

[LetYouDown]

600 is still reasonably low. You probably have a reasonable idea whether you're any good...but you're going to need a lot more tournaments to get the math to agree with you.

[uuDevil]

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Thanks devil, I've played 600 sngs with 35% roi and 45% is 600 tournies enough to tell if your a winning player.

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Even though I don't play many SnG's, based on the links in the SnG FAQ (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=singletable&Number=2540909 &Forum=All_Forums&Words=%2Bwinning%20%2Bsng%20%2Bc onfidence&Searchpage=0&Limit=25&Main=2540909&Searc h=true&where=bodysub&Name=&daterange=1&newerval=1& newertype=y&olderval=&oldertype=&bodyprev=#Post254 0909), I'm going to disagree w/ LetYouDown and say, yes, you are very likely a winner.

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Yeah I estimate the odds but don't know exactly

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You must be doing something right. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[LetYouDown]

I'm more of a ring game player but I've played a lot more than 600 SNGs. My numbers still fluctuate quite a bit. I'll definitely surrender the fact that you're much much more likely a winning player than not.

[Siegmund]

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Hi all, I'm a profitable sng player (35% roi) but still have a poor knowledge of pot odds etc. How much of a hole is this in my game.

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That depends on how far off your intuition is, but it's likely to not be THAT far off.

To take a simple example, you have a 4-flush and villain threatens to set you all-in on the flop with his TPTK or overpair. You are around 34% to win (34.97% for the flush to come in, but he might get a runner-runner full house). You break even, in terms of expected number of chips, if he sets you all-in with a (very slightly larger than) pot-sized bet. You make money if you pay less, you lose money if you pay more, but not much, if it is close: if it takes a 1½-pot-sized bet to set you all in, calling is a -9% proposition. (You pay 1.5 units and get back 34% of 4 units = 1.36 units) That's no way to make money in a ring game, but it's not the worst bet any of us has ever taken, and in a SnG, losing the money you've already committed might cripple your chances of making the money badly enough that you'll happily take a 34% chance of doubling up.

[TheHammer24]

The best book about pot odds, effective odds, and implied odds, IMO, is The Theory of Poker. I am really surprised no one else suggested this.

[Focused]

Thanks, for the book advice, all the best