40 BB pot, 2nd nut, go for overcalls or reraise??

[RiverTheNuts]

I figure if I raise here, Im probably driving out at least one of the overcallers, and if I get popped again then my flush is probably not good, so hows the overcall approach here?

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif. CO posts a blind of $0.75. UTG+2 posts a blind of $0.5.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO (poster) checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(8 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB folds, Hero calls, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, CO folds.

Turn: (14.25 BB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 caps</font>, Button calls, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

River: (34.25 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, Button folds, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Final Pot: 42.25 BB

[squeek12]

i think i just call

[Marquis]

Bet/raise/cap the flop.

[RiverTheNuts]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet/raise/cap the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont get the flop cap, itll narrow the field to one or two people, and they will only call one or two bets after I hit... leading the flop so it isnt 2 cold back to the EP'ers I get... but explain the flop cap logic to me

[aces_dad]

Seeing how UTG+1 and UTG+2 have cc'd 3 on the turn and one already on the river, I think at least one of them will call down when you three bet and again when MP2 caps it.

Heads up I just call it fearing MP2's A high flush but given your equity and the likelyhood of the overcalls even with your raise, I do think raising is the right play. I see you winning this way more than 1 out of 3 and don't see how you lose both overcallers to a 3-bet given the earlier action.

[RiverTheNuts]

[ QUOTE ]
Seeing how UTG+1 and UTG+2 have cc'd 3 on the turn and one already on the river, I think at least one of them will call down when you three bet and again when MP2 caps it.

Heads up I just call it fearing MP2's A high flush but given your equity and the likelyhood of the overcalls even with your raise, I do think raising is the right play. I see you winning this way more than 1 out of 3 and don't see how you lose both overcallers to a 3-bet given the earlier action.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a great point, but with so much going on in the hand this point didnt really stick out that they both CC'ed 3 on the turn, the hand was whacky and I was too busy dancing in my chair after I hit on the turn, if I had this in front of me, I would have def. 3-bet here

[chaz64]

[ QUOTE ]
explain the flop cap logic to me

[/ QUOTE ]

You bet hoping for at least two callers, the button raises and you pop it again, cause you are only a 2:1 dog to make your flush. Your equity makes it a profitable move.

[sean c]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bet/raise/cap the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont get the flop cap, itll narrow the field to one or two people, and they will only call one or two bets after I hit... leading the flop so it isnt 2 cold back to the EP'ers I get... but explain the flop cap logic to me

[/ QUOTE ]

You bet this flop because of your relative position to the PFR wanting to trap players between the two of you for multiple bets. The pot is already a monster and they will be happy to call 2 cold after you 3 bet. You only need two of the EP's to hang around to have an equity edge anyway.

[adamstewart]

Lead the flop:


You should have led the flop right away. This is a very standard play for these situations.

The reason is that you are hoping for many players to call your one bet... then have the Button raise it up for you. Remember, the button was the preflop raiser, so it's very likely he'll do exactly as you like. By leading out on the flop, you can trap as many as 5 other players when Button raises!!

Let's look at some other alternatives to what could have happened:

(i) You check, as you did. It's checked around to Button, who bets. Now what? Raising it now is exactly the opposite of what you want to happen! So, you call, and hope to get more callers behind you. This is bad. You're missing tonnes of bets here from the other callers.

(ii) You check. It's gets checked through to the Button - who also checks it through!!. D'OH!! Horrible, you just missed out on tonnes of bets.


(iii) The fact that, in this instance, UTG decided to lead out here could not have been forseen. It's unknown whether or not he (or anyone else before the button) would have simply called your lead (assuming you did that), or whether they would have raised it still. Quite frankly, it doesn't matter much. This pot is large, and you're going to get a lot of cold-callers anyway. Plus, you can raise it up again when the action comes back to you.

Remember, this is a large pot. Moreso than usual, people are going to be calling down with their gutshots, paired 4's, backdoor draws, ... or even worse. Lots of them may even have correct odds to do so. Calling two bets cold will not deter as many of these players as you might think.

The point here, though, is that you have a very powerful draw that's going to come in 1 in 3 times, and will very, very often hold up to be the best hand. Thus, you have a huge equity edge, so you want as many bets in this pot as you can get.


Re/raise cap the flop:


As describe above, you want as many bets as you can in this pot. And people *will* call two bets at a time, especially once they figure they're already "commited" to this street.

After you lead the flop, re-reaise whoever, and hope to get this flop capped.



Regarding the turn:


This would depend on how the action when on the flop. If the main aggressors were from late positions, you want to lead out again on this flop, and perhaps hope from a raise behind you (this line may be opponent-specific, though). Regardless, you don't want this checked through so lead out!!

Also notice here, how your aggression on the flop (had you done so) may disguise your made flush now. They may put you more on two pair, etc on the flop instead of a flush draw. Conversely, notice how if you were simply a passive caller on the flop, but then lead out on the turn when the 3rd spade falls,... you're being pretty transparent, and will be less likely re-raised (or even called).



River

Good lead out.

When the action comes back to you... RE-RAISE. You have the 2nd nut flush damn it, with no pairs on board!! You are raising for value here.

Couple points here regarding this matter:

(i) UTG+1 and UTG+2 have already called your initial bet. Further, they've stuck around this far to see a showdown, even with all the raising thus far. Hence, they will very likely call two more bets if you raise. Note: all it takes is ONE of them to call two more in order to make up for the potential 1-bet overcalls by both of them if you hadn't raised.

(ii) For the number of times that MP2 has the Ace-high nut flush, you are buffered by the additional bets that UTG+1 and UTG+2 put in.

(iii) Another way to think of point (ii) is in terms of equity. You have potentially 3-4 players that are going to see this showdown. Your second-nut flush is sure to win this pot more than 25%-30% of the time. (I'd estimate you will win this pot more than 50% of the time). Therefore, you have a large equity edge. Therefore, RAISE.




Adam

[hizo1]

nh stewie, you may yet make a decent player out of me someday

[TomBrooks]

RIVER: I'd Raise it. I'm not so sure MP2 has the A /images/graemlins/spade.gif X /images/graemlins/spade.gif. He didn't raise at any time on the flop with TP and a Nut Flush Draw if he does and he had an ideal opportunity to trap almost the whole field there. Of course he could be a less aggressive player.

As far as overcalls, I think you'll get them anyway as they would still be getting 20:1 to call with their Top Pair or Two Pair or Sets or Straights. Even if you lost those two which I doubt, you'd make up at least one from MP2.

You could be beat here, but I think your upside potential is greater than the downside. If you lose, eh? Go out in a blaze of glory - it's only one or two more bets. RAISE IT!

[2+2 wannabe]

not raising this river is pretty bad

there are two others gleefully calling along - UTG+1 and UTG+2 with nothing really - this dead money makes river raising easy

[TomBrooks]

[ QUOTE ]
Lead the flop: The reason is that you are hoping for many players to call your one bet... then have the Button raise it up for you. Let's look at some alternatives:
i) You check...Button bets. Raising it now is exactly the opposite of what you want to happen!
ii) You check...the Button checks it through!! D'OH!! Horrible.

[/ QUOTE ]
What he said. Well said.