inducing bluffs

[wrto4556]

not sure how right this is...

BB is horrible and will bluff the river 100% of the time if I check behind on the turn.

10/20 (4 handed)

I get K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif,Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif in the CO.
UTG folds, I raise, Button folds, BB calls.

flop is T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif,5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif,2 /images/graemlins/club.gif
BB checks, I bet, BB calls.

turn is the Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif
BB checks, I check.

river is the T /images/graemlins/heart.gif
BB bets, I call.

He shows K /images/graemlins/club.gif,8 /images/graemlins/club.gif and I drag the pot.

look ok?

[pheasant tail (no 18)]

I think in this case, where you have position, you should bet that turn. If he's so horrible there's a fair chance that you can get him to call 2 bets.

For your play to be right, not only must it be true that he'll bet the river a high % of the time when you check, but it must also be true that he'll fold to a turn bet a high %.

I think it can be right to check turn in this case if you really know player, as it sounds like you do, but I don't know anyone on-line well enough to check this.

Why did you think that he'd fold to a turn bet?

In shorthanded situations plays like yours come up more often, especially 3 handed and less but 4 handed also depending on the table makeup.

As a default, I think this should be a turn bet unless you are sure of the reasons to check.

[jquattro]

But you get the same amount of BBs if you bet out turn and river. Furthermore, if your so convinced hed bluff, then why do you assume he has a ten?

[sy_or_bust]

Definitely check, unless he's bad enough to bluff raise you or make a K-high call.

[MrTeddyKGB]

I think this is not a good hand to induce a bluff with vs a bad player. This would be better if you had more doubt about your hand i.e. 66. Even though more free cards can hurt you there is a bigger chance you are behind already so it is probably worth it to take that chance if you are sure you can pick up a bet on the river. In this hand there is too good a chance you can get 2 bets instead of one but betting all the way. Sorry if the writing is jumbled I just woke up but I think the idea is right.

[DMBFan23]

[ QUOTE ]
But you get the same amount of BBs if you bet out turn and river.

[/ QUOTE ]

not if he folds the turn (not saying I check here. I'm much more likely to check if I make something like a pair of aces or even kings here)

[wrto4556]

I know him well enough that im 95% sure he's betting this river with any two cards.

[ QUOTE ]
I think in this case, where you have position, you should bet that turn. If he's so horrible there's a fair chance that you can get him to call 2 bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

how often will he call the turn bet? I would say he has to have a pair or a draw (pair outs dont count as draws, imo).

he bets the river close to 100% of the time...

how often does he draw out? overcards and flushes wont bother me. Just straight draws and two pair.

[wrto4556]

[ QUOTE ]

not if he folds the turn (not saying I check here. I'm much more likely to check if I make something like a pair of aces or even kings here)

[/ QUOTE ]

because my kicker is an overcard, isn't it the same thing?

[MrTeddyKGB]

[ QUOTE ]
river is the T
BB bets, I call.


[/ QUOTE ]

The way you played it I would raise the river. This is not way ahead way behiend situation, its a way ahead way ahead.

[DMBFan23]

yeah for the purposes of losing the pot I think so, I just find people like to bluff at aces (in my limited experience)

[wrto4556]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
river is the T
BB bets, I call.


[/ QUOTE ]

The way you played it I would raise the river. This is not way ahead way behiend situation, its a way ahead way ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

that's interesting. Even though he's most likely bluffing, I bet there are hands he pays off with that I beat. I doubt he would play a T like this, fwiw.

[wrto4556]

[ QUOTE ]
yeah for the purposes of losing the pot I think so, I just find people like to bluff at aces (in my limited experience)

[/ QUOTE ]

oh ok. i get a special case because I work with uber donks. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[danzasmack]

I definitely raise the river.

[freehat]

Bet the damn turn, you're missing sooooooooo much value.
Given that you checked the turn raise the river.

Leave the turn check when you have something like a-high or a pair of 5's and want to see a showdown versus this type of opponent. Not when you have top pair on this board and will get called on both streets by all kinds of junk.

[wrto4556]

ill only defend myself a little bit for discussion sake.

Villian would probably bet into me with middle/top pair on the board.

I don't see much he calls the turn with...I see tons he bets the river with.

I dont see all the value im missing by checking the turn...

[Nietzsche]

I think to really profit on this type of play against this type of player you need to raise the river. In my experience they will often call with very little fearing you are pulling a stunt.

[PokerBob]

I have no idea why you don't bet this turn. I save bluff induction for when I have a hand like QT on a T72 board and the turn brings a K.

[wrto4556]

[ QUOTE ]
I have no idea why you don't bet this turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
BB is horrible and will bluff the river 100% of the time if I check behind on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I save bluff induction for when I have a hand like QT on a T72 board and the turn brings a K.

[/ QUOTE ]

explain to me why checking the turn is wrong. Just telling me it's wrong doesn't really convince me.

If I had raised the river, it would have been a much stronger play. I catch up with all the bets I missed from value betting the turn, but I also pick off tons of bluffs that would not have called a bet on the turn.

I don't feel like my hand is too vulnerable to give a free card knowing he's betting no matter what comes.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I have no idea why you don't bet this turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
BB is horrible and will bluff the river 100% of the time if I check behind on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I save bluff induction for when I have a hand like QT on a T72 board and the turn brings a K.

[/ QUOTE ]

explain to me why checking the turn is wrong. Just telling me it's wrong doesn't really convince me.

If I had raised the river, it would have been a much stronger play. I catch up with all the bets I missed from value betting the turn, but I also pick off tons of bluffs that would not have called a bet on the turn.

I don't feel like my hand is too vulnerable to give a free card knowing he's betting no matter what comes.

[/ QUOTE ]

He could have a T. He could have 99. He could have an OESD. He could have all kinds of hands that will call the turn AND river. If he has one of these hands, he likely calls the turn and river. If he doesn't and he totally missed, he likely folds the flop. If he has junk and you raise the river, he mucks anyway, but you gave him a chance to catch a card that may beat you. I bet this turn. Maybe I'm wrong, but I do it.

[wrto4556]

[ QUOTE ]
I save bluff induction for when I have a hand like QT on a T72 board and the turn brings a K.

[/ QUOTE ]

also, I would be more inclined to bet in this situation. There are more draws and we are more vulnerable to overcards.

[JrJordan]

You mention that if you check the turn he'll always bet the river, but what if you fire another barrel on the turn? Will he always fold if he's got rags or does he get tricky with a c/r, or just call down. Your two choices here are to fire again on the turn if he'll peel with rags, or c/r the river when he bluffs and hope he has a low pair that can call.

IMO betting the turn again is the best line in nearly all cases.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I save bluff induction for when I have a hand like QT on a T72 board and the turn brings a K.

[/ QUOTE ]

also, I would be more inclined to bet in this situation. There are more draws and we are more vulnerable to overcards.

[/ QUOTE ]

We are less vulnerable now, as one has already hit.

[wrto4556]

he peels the flop no matter what and is *more inclined* to fold nothing to a turn bet. im not saying he folds every time...but he bets the river everytime.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]

Villian would probably bet into me with middle/top pair on the board.

I don't see much he calls the turn with...I see tons he bets the river with.


[/ QUOTE ]

This info would have been useful in the OP.

[college_boy]

I think checking the turn is bad for the same reasons as PokerBob.

[wrto4556]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Villian would probably bet into me with middle/top pair on the board.

I don't see much he calls the turn with...I see tons he bets the river with.


[/ QUOTE ]

This info would have been useful in the OP.

[/ QUOTE ]

I said something along those lines, but should have probably made it clearer.

for some reason (i think because most people use PT and I take "book") i don't mention all of the reads I have. I dont want people to feel like im making up reads to justify my bad play.

i need to get over it.

[wrto4556]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I save bluff induction for when I have a hand like QT on a T72 board and the turn brings a K.

[/ QUOTE ]

also, I would be more inclined to bet in this situation. There are more draws and we are more vulnerable to overcards.

[/ QUOTE ]

We are less vulnerable now, as one has already hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand what you're saying, just a bad example, maybe.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I save bluff induction for when I have a hand like QT on a T72 board and the turn brings a K.

[/ QUOTE ]

also, I would be more inclined to bet in this situation. There are more draws and we are more vulnerable to overcards.

[/ QUOTE ]

We are less vulnerable now, as one has already hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand what you're saying, just a bad example, maybe.

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually think my example is a good one. This (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=2764165&page=&view=&s b=5&o=&vc=1) one is even better.

[wrto4556]

thats a good post.

the difference im seeing is that Schneids is checking with outs because he fears a check/raise and it induces a river bluff. I agree with that.

in this hand, im checking because BB probably has nothing but will fire a barrell on the end.

it's two different situations, so I dont think they should be compared. Why do you think checking the turn is bad in the OP?

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Why do you think checking the turn is bad in the OP?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because I think I will get called a good % of the time.

[wrto4556]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why do you think checking the turn is bad in the OP?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because I think I will get called a good % of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

make up a number and I bet we can figure it out.

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
I have no idea why you don't bet this turn. I save bluff induction for when I have a hand like QT on a T72 board and the turn brings a K.

[/ QUOTE ]

These types of players abound at 10/20 - they are too loose, too aggressive preflop, and too aggressive postflop. However, they are NOT calling stations, and tighten up considerably on the turn if they don't have a reasonable hand or draw, while they'll often peel anything on the flop. OP is correct, this type of player will bet nearly every river, regardless of his holding, or what card falls.

Additionally, our hand is strong enough here to raise the river, which makes the line even better - we get 1 bet out of hands that would have folded the turn, and a full 2 bets out of hands that would have called the turn + river, because the river raise is so suspicious he'll call any 1 pair hands that would have gotten to showdown anyway.

Now I'm not saying to take this line every time, but it certainly is a worthy one against this type of player. This is a great deviation from ABC poker and good for mixing up one's game as well. Maybe next time when we check through the turn to try and hit a gutshot w/ A-high he'll think twice before autobetting the river - considering what has recently happened vs this opponent and how he'll react to this type of specific play are important aspects of winning the most from these LAGs.

Surf

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]

He could have a T. He could have 99. He could have an OESD. He could have all kinds of hands that will call the turn AND river. If he has one of these hands, he likely calls the turn and river. If he doesn't and he totally missed, he likely folds the flop. If he has junk and you raise the river, he mucks anyway, but you gave him a chance to catch a card that may beat you. I bet this turn. Maybe I'm wrong, but I do it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bob, I understand your reasoning - it's correct from your standpoint, but that is because you seem to be unfamiliar with this type of player - the OP may not have done him justice in describing him.

It's easy to pick up on who plays this way and who doesn't, but it requires actively getting real reads, not pokertracker ones, and some effort at checking HHs.

These players:
Peel the flop nearly always HU
Tighten up considerably on the turn
Bluff bet at any and all signs of weakness
call river raises with hands they intend to showdown
attack the flop with mediocre paired holdings

This type on information leads us to believe that on the turn, our opponent possibly has a T and is slowplaying, but this is not that likely since it is vulnerable to overs. Aside from that, a worse pair is very unlikely because these players bet+raise with mediocre hands, they aren't passive calling stations.

There are few draws, and he'll bet those missed draws on the river as a bluff anyway. He'll also bet garbage hands on the river that he'd never call with on the turn. Sometimes he'll have something like a weak pair that he played differently, but he'll often call our river raise with that.

This line has many things going for it. However, it's very player- and read- specific.

To the OP: nh. Thinking like this is what will help you succeed at 10/20.

Surf

[wrto4556]

you're the man, surf.

[ QUOTE ]
Additionally, our hand is strong enough here to raise the river, which makes the line even better - we get 1 bet out of hands that would have folded the turn, and a full 2 bets out of hands that would have called the turn + river, because the river raise is so suspicious he'll call any 1 pair hands that would have gotten to showdown anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

so are you folding to a 3-bet?

[Surfbullet]

Whether we fold to the 3bet isn't as important, because our hand is going to be best the vast majority of the time - he'll call with those afforementioned holdings (that PokerBob laid out) that would have called the turn.

I fold to the 3bet, however. Bluff-3bets are very, very rare regardless of the limit, especially on the river. If he 3bets we ran into a T or a whiffed c/r on the turn with a set or some-such.

Surf