Interesting $109 Bubble Situation

[UMTerp]

Stars $105+$9 Turbo. I'm posting this from memory, stacks are approximate, but close. It had been a prolonged bubble, and I had worked my way up from an anemic stack to put myself in pretty decent shape. Since then I'd more or less treaded water, being careful of the stacks that were likely to call, but trying to push every 4th or 5th hand to hold serve.

Blinds 300-600 w/50 ante

UTG - 3000
Button - 6500
SB - 800 (500 after posting)
BB (UMTerp) - 3200 (2600 after posting)

Button is a regular at this level, and a very good SNG player. He's well aware that even if the SB triples up this hand, he will probably win back everything he lost and then some in the next few hands by wielding his stack. He knows I'm a good player too. SB was unknown, but seemed solid enough.

UTG folds, Button pushes, SB calls, I have 88.

Call or Fold?

[kyro]

I call. It has to go in order of hand rank "SB/Button/You" for you to be busted out of the money. Button is probably pushing almost any two here. Easy call for me.

Now someone can come along and prove me wrong.

[FatalError]

call and hope you don't lose to both of them

[bkbluedevil]

Call. The only way that you get 4th here is if the three way race finishes SB>Button>You. The button could very well be pushing a random hand and the sb doesn't need much at all to call.

[11t]

I muck it like it was contaminated by radiation.

I would just be so upset if the button had q3 and the sb had kt and the flop came kq-x and I busted out in 4th.

Also did you move up limits recently? I've seen you at the 27's quite a bit.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]

I would just be so upset if the button had q3 and the sb had kt and the flop came kq-x and I busted out in 4th.


[/ QUOTE ]


Come on now. Stop.

[UMTerp]

[ QUOTE ]
Also did you move up limits recently? I've seen you at the 27's quite a bit.

[/ QUOTE ]

I play sets of twelve with four $27's, five $60's, and three $114's. Makes for a nice round number for the set ($750), the $27's are about the easiest thing in the world, and it helps grow the bankroll a little quicker with the bigger games in there. It also allows me to start all twelve within a shorter period of time, which I prefer. I may phase out the $27's in a week or two, but you'll still see me around on occasion. I played a few with you either last night or the night before.

[11t]

Granted the button is probably pushing with any 2 here and the SB is basically pot committed preflop but I just can't bring myself to make this call.

If the SB wasn't AI in front of you or at 1.5xBB I would call this instantly. Also if the blinds were at 400/800 instead of 300/600 or hero didnt have 4.25xBB after posting I would be more inclined to call.

Anybody wanna do an ICM calcultion on this mofo?

[UMTerp]

[ QUOTE ]
If the SB wasn't AI in front of you or at 1.5xBB I would call this instantly. Also if the blinds were at 400/800 instead of 300/600 or hero didnt have 4.25xBB after posting I would be more inclined to call.

Anybody wanna do an ICM calcultion on this mofo?

[/ QUOTE ]

3-way ICMs are a lot of work.

FWIW, I'm more likely to call if the SB is all-in than if he isn't. I'm almost positive ICM numbers would agree with that one.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I'm more likely to call if the SB is all-in than if he isn't.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is correct.

[zipppy]

I call this, and I think you have to look at the possible stack sizes next hand just as much as the stack sizes this hand. Whether or not the button is pushing any two, there's still a good chance he'll lose to the SB heads up.

Stack sizes supposing sb takes down the pot (and you fold pre):

~3000
~5700
~2400
~2600 (hero)

Since you're posting the sb next hand, you run the risk of being the short stack at the table by folding this hand. Also, your table image is hurt a bit with each fold in the BB.

I think the risk of sb tripling up is much worse than the risk of losing to BOTH the sb AND the button with the sb beating the button.

[11t]

Well I am glad to know I found another leak in my play /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[UMTerp]

Guess this one wasn't quite as interesting as I thought, though it's a call I'm not sure everyone would make. I'd imagine it's a bit counter-intuitive to some players with the SB all-in.

I took a second to think the situation through and called. Button had 94o, SB had KT and flopped two pair. I held my breath as no 9 hit the turn or the river, took the chip lead, and went on to win the thing as I got to play the role of aggressor after that hand due to the perfect stack sizes at the rest of the table.

BTW, the bold sentence is something multitablers don't do nearly often enough. Sometimes it's OK not to be on autopilot.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
Well I am glad to know I found another leak in my play /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Always a good thing /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Granted the button is probably pushing with any 2 here and the SB is basically pot committed preflop but I just can't bring myself to make this call.

If the SB wasn't AI in front of you or at 1.5xBB I would call this instantly. Also if the blinds were at 400/800 instead of 300/600 or hero didnt have 4.25xBB after posting I would be more inclined to call.

Anybody wanna do an ICM calcultion on this mofo?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm, I think you have this backwards.

[2callzU]

[ QUOTE ]
I muck it like it was contaminated by radiation.

I would just be so upset if the button had q3 and the sb had kt and the flop came kq-x and I busted out in 4th.


[/ QUOTE ]
I agree with 11t

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Granted the button is probably pushing with any 2 here and the SB is basically pot committed preflop but I just can't bring myself to make this call.

If the SB wasn't AI in front of you or at 1.5xBB I would call this instantly. Also if the blinds were at 400/800 instead of 300/600 or hero didnt have 4.25xBB after posting I would be more inclined to call.

Anybody wanna do an ICM calcultion on this mofo?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm, I think you have this backwards.

[/ QUOTE ]

He does

[zipppy]

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I muck it like it was contaminated by radiation.

I would just be so upset if the button had q3 and the sb had kt and the flop came kq-x and I busted out in 4th.


[/ QUOTE ]
I agree with 11t

[/ QUOTE ]

But it's wrong to make decisions based on, "what if this scenario plays out?".
Right?
I mean, this sounds like justifying limping with XXs, because "if I flop a flush it'll be great".

[Gramps]

I'm somewhat addicted to looking at these types of 3-way calling situations on the bubble - Gimme more drugs man...

Has the big stack been pushing every hand possible? Let's assume he's pushing close to any two (like top 3/4 or so - maybe he's pushing a wider range, maybe a narrower).

If SB "seems solid," he probably knows the big stack is pushing just about any two, and he's likely to call with even just a decent hand against the big stack pusher (esp. with the overlay present that will be lost after this hand). A lot of SB's will call with a wider range, but let's give him about top 1/4 of hands (any pair, any Ace, KQo-KTo, KQs-K9s, QJs-QTs, JTs, QJo).

88 = 42.0%
Button = 24.3%
SB = 33.7%

So...the only time you finish 4th is when SB wins, and the button also beats your 88 - that's going to be less than 1/2 of 33.7% (maybe 15% - Pokerstove won't figure that out for you exactly). So, taking that 15% assumption:

42%

Hero - 7,200
Button - 3,300
UTG - 3,000

(Note that here alone your expected prize pool equity will be close to 40%)

24.3%

Hero = 3rd place

18.7%

Hero - 4,800
SB - 2,400
Button - 3,300
UTG - 3,000

(ICM gives you about 30% of the prize pool here - though you may do better on average with your new found stealing edge on the bubble...)

15%

Hero = 4th

What's your expectation the times you fold? Given the hand ranges, SB will win about 60% of the time. So...

60%

Hero - 2,600
SB - 2,200
UTG - 3,000
Button - 5,700

(ICM says your expectation is about 20% of the prize pool given these stack sizes above - equivalent to finishing 3rd)

40%

Hero - 2,600
Button - 7,900
UTG - 3,000

(ICM says your expectation is about 28% of the prize pool)

So, by calling, 60% of the time you're the new chipleader (42% of the time by a large margin) in a big blind poker situation - definitely a big edge. For this edge, you give up (.15)(.232) = 3.5% of the prize pool right away (23.2% is your (ICM approx.) expected prize pool equity the times you fold your 88), plus when you call with 88 and are knocked out in 3rd place (Button wins the 3-way pot), you lose (.243)(.032) = .8% - Thus you're giving up about 4.3% of the prize pool in order to be chipleader 60.7% of the time (42% by large margin 3-way, 18.7% by smaller margin on bubble still). Of the times you're chipleader, if that ups your expected prize pool return by an average of greater than 7.1% ((.607)(.71) = 4.3% approx.), then it's probably the right play to call with 88. It's pretty clear that your prize pool expectation goes up way more than 7.1%, blah blah, yada-yada, blah blah...it's probably the right play to call with your 88 (given all the above assumptions, of course).

General Rule for 3-way calling of all chips on bubble with an all-in shorty already in the pot - When...

(a) The blinds are relatively big;
(b) The big stack is pushing just about any two;
(c) The short stack who calls in front of you is calling a non-tight range (doesn't mean a premium hand);
(d) You're hand is a good favorite against the big stack's likely range of hands, and probably at least on par with the short stack; then....

Folding is almost always incorrect in a 50/30/20 payout structure.

It does totally suck the few times you call and get knocked out, but if you're playing to make the best $EV plays, then calling is almost always correct in these spots.

[UMTerp]

[ QUOTE ]
Has the big stack been pushing every hand possible? Let's assume he's pushing close to any two (like top 3/4 or so - maybe he's pushing a wider range, maybe a narrower).

[/ QUOTE ]

I put the big stack on precisely any two cards. I think this was the fourth hand in a row or so he had pushed. He was doing was he should be doing - playing stacks and situations.

Thanks for the excellent analysis, Gramps... I'm about to look at it a little more closely.

[pooh74]

Nice job old man!

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
I put the big stack on precisely any two cards. I think this was the fourth hand in a row or so he had pushed. He was doing was he should be doing - playing stacks and situations.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then...that makes it even more of a call. And that 15% 4th place figure assumption is probably a little high as well (even without putting the button on any two), so that makes it even more of a call as well.

[Gramps]

Owwweee, my head hurts. I feel like Will Ferrell in Old School right after his debate with James Carville (though his answer was much, much better)...

...Though it is nice to have an opportunity to make enough assumptions to make an econ professor proud....

[DonButtons]

Gramps, nice post, and very well explained why this is a autocall, especially vs a good snger who pushs a lot.

[curtains]

I would call!!

[The Yugoslavian]

Am I missing something? I think this is a fairly standard (easy) call? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

I'd make it at any level and on any day of the week, /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

Yugoslav

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]

I would call!!

[/ QUOTE ]

I concur, I think what would be more interesting is "what is the weakest hand you'd call with here?"

[asherpuppy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I would call!!

[/ QUOTE ]

I concur, I think what would be more interesting is "what is the weakest hand you'd call with here?"

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a really great hand, because 88 or 99 would be my cutoff for calling (presuming the button is always pushing), I definitely wouldn't call with any non-pair hands. The biggest issue in figuring this out is the assumption about what your opponents are doing. Under very broad assumptions, we can assume the SB will call with any 2 cards. He would be crazy not to, the pot odds and his chip count are enough to call with anything. If that is the case, then we need to change Grampa's assumption to at least 50-50 that the SB will be gone. That makes a big difference in the calculations, and 88 becomes a questionable call. It's really, really close. If I thought it was at all possible that the button was only pushing his top 50%, I would fold for sure because my equity in the SB's potential demise becomes huge.

Just for kicks, if for some reason the SB doesn't call (maybe hoping against hope that you will), you can call with 99 or better if you assume the button is always pushing (which I think is a reasonable assumption). 88 is a mathematical toss-up. If you think it is possible that the button may actually only be pushing with top 25%, you only call with big pairs (QQ or better).