the value of semi-bluffing

[stripsqueez]

i think this is an auto example of when not to raise your draws but its come to my attention that the frank zappa principle may apply

10/20 6 max - i have 3 of these going with a NL multi table tourney - this table is running tight - i just got playerview which told me that only 31% of us were seeing a flop

i get 8h7h UTG+1 and open raise - next guy 3 bets and the rest fold as i call

flop is 3h 9c 6d - check/bet/call

turn is 6h - check/bet/call

river is 2h - bet/call

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[King Yao]

I think this is player dependent. But that's an easy answer to a tough question. Any tough question is player dependent if you know what the player will do with certain hands.

So, assuming its against an unknown (or a player who you don't know what he would do with AJ, AT if you raise), I think its a close call. With the low board, I would lean towards agreeing with you (check-calling on Flop, Turn), because he will call down with AK, AQ and probably AJ, AT too - and definitely any pair, even 22. If you had JT, and the Flop was Q9x, then I think its a different story - with that Flop you are more likely to be up against a pair, but you are also more likely to see your opponent fold, which is what matters.

So I do agree with your post-Flop play.

But: do you regularly open-raise with 87s UTG+1 in 6-handed? my opinion is that it is too aggro.

[cartman]

I think the prospects of making a preflop 3-bettor fold at any point in this hand are near zero. Your line is perfect. I think a more interesting situation would be if he had open-raised and you defended in the big blind. I don't know about 10/20, but the typical opponent will never ever ever ever ever fold overcards (usually even one overcard) on the turn. That means if you try to get cute and bet or raise this draw at some point you will (a)either get raised or 3-bet or (b) find yourself in a situation where you must fire again on the river with your busted draw in which case you will inevitably be called with Ace high (or sometimes even K high).

I reserve playing my draw aggressively in this spot for opponents who I have previously seen fold on the turn after I checkraise on a low board with a pair and bet the turn. I make a note and consider playing a draw in the same fashion in the future.

Any thoughts?


Cartman

[stripsqueez]

[ QUOTE ]
But: do you regularly open-raise with 87s UTG+1 in 6-handed? my opinion is that it is too aggro.

[/ QUOTE ]

i dont do it a lot

given the reasoning for not semi-bluffing shouldnt i go for the river check raise ?

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]
the frank zappa principle may apply

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't believe people are so restrained.

What's the Frank Zappa principle?

Guy.

P.S. good luck in the cricket tomorrow /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[King Yao]

[ QUOTE ]
given the reasoning for not semi-bluffing shouldnt i go for the river check raise ?

[/ QUOTE ]


Again, player dependent. Some will keep betting like a chicken with their head cut off. Others will check without a pair.

Against an unknown, I think its close. I wouldn't argue with either

[Derek in NYC]

One reason raising the draw doesnt work here is because you're OOP. In position, I think there's a good reason to raise on 4th street. I think you can only c/r these kind of draws OOP if your villain is the type of guy who will lie down on 4th street with UI overcards.

[stripsqueez]

[ QUOTE ]
What's the Frank Zappa principle?

[/ QUOTE ]

apparently frank zappa said if the rest of the world thinks your wrong then your probably wrong - or something like that

[ QUOTE ]
P.S. good luck in the cricket tomorrow /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks but its unlikely to be required

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[cartman]

[ QUOTE ]
In position, I think there's a good reason to raise on 4th street.

[/ QUOTE ]

What is the reason? Is it because you think he is more likely to fold his overcards here if you are in position? Or is it to set up a bet on the river with your busted draw at which point he may fold?

Thanks,
Cartman

[naphand]

No wonder I was confused, I was thinking "what has this got to do with eating yellow snow?"

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

thanks but its unlikely to be required


[/ QUOTE ]

Sure it is. There's a lot of rain over here right now.

Guy.