Hand that has been bugging me

[Olback]

$30 Eurobet hand

UTG had been limping alot. No reads on raiser.

Is this an automatic push or should i have folded? I figured that because UTG had been limping he was weak and i figurd i was a coinflip at best.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t725)
Button (t2155)
SB (t930)
BB (t1100)
UTG (t1685)
MP (t1405)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls t50, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to t200</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>,Hero raises all in, MP calls t525.

Flop: (t850) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Turn: (t850) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: (t850) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: t850

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
MP has Ks Kc (three of a kind, kings).
Hero has Qh Ac (one pair, queens).
Outcome: MP wins t850. </font>

[XxPenguinxX]

This is why you shouldn't play PP SNGs - there is no other play here than re-raise all in. There's nothing wrong with it.

On tourneys with higher numbers of chips, you could raise to 600 with the equivalent stack size, get out if the flop misses, and still have 18 or so BBs left.

[The once and future king]

Easy fold.

Is this a joke?

[kyro]

I'm shoving. Three hands scare you here, and MP is raising with more than those 6 hands. I'd fold AJ and KQ here though.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy fold.

Is this a joke?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why?

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
This is why you shouldn't play PP SNGs - there is no other play here than re-raise all in. There's nothing wrong with it.


[/ QUOTE ]

This has been discussed before. What are you interested in, money, or ROI?

[junkmail3]

I could be convinced to let it go. It's still early, you'll have a lot of time to get in a better situation.

I don't like shoving AQ (sometimes AK even) in level two against a raise.

[liucipher]

Isn't it 4 . . . /images/graemlins/confused.gif ?

AA KK QQ AK

[liucipher]

Out of curiosity, you're scared of 3 (or 4) hands, but what are you really beating? Granted it's a somewhat low buy-in, but AT AJ KQ KJ? I can't think of a lot of hands that raise in mid position that you're not racing most of the time.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't it 4 . . . /images/graemlins/confused.gif ?

AA KK QQ AK

[/ QUOTE ]

yep, that's what i said...4. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[vinyard]

Hmmm, only scared of AA, KK and QQ (and clearly AK) but I suspect AQ is a pretty significant dog to the hands he might be raising here. You are behind 99-JJ (and possibly 88) and the only hands I think you are ahead of are AJ and smaller and KQ.

I don't think you are despertate yet with 15BB. This is a pretty straight forward fold for me.

[The once and future king]

BB 50. I am also scared of a coinflip. Putting your whole tourney on the line at this point in the sng is totaly unnecesary. Pushing hoping that your opponent had KJ+ At-Aj is not just wrong it is horrid.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm shoving. Three hands scare you here, and MP is raising with more than those 6 hands. I'd fold AJ and KQ here though.

[/ QUOTE ]

My god, was I high when I made this post?

[The once and future king]

See Olback, only those on drugs think your play was good here.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
BB 50. I am also scared of a coinflip. Putting your whole tourney on the line at this point in the sng is totaly unnecesary. Pushing expecting that your opponent had KJ+ At-Aj is not wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP.

But seriously. It's 6-handed. Do you only raise QQ+/AK 6-handed? A couple bits of information that I think would be helpful (that NOBODY puts in their original post). How many hands until the blinds? If they go up next hand, I'm shoving this without any thought. If they JUST went up, it's closer to a fold.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
See Olback, only those on drugs think your play was good here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ha!

But no, I stand by my point until someone can show me that people at the $33s will raise only premium hands with 6 people left.

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
A couple bits of information that I think would be helpful (that NOBODY puts in their original post). How many hands until the blinds? If they go up next hand, I'm shoving this without any thought. If they JUST went up, it's closer to a fold.

[/ QUOTE ] This was more true (much more true) when the next level was 100/200. A little less true now that the next level is 75/150.

But I agree, it's still incredibly important.

[XxPenguinxX]

[ QUOTE ]
Out of curiosity, you're scared of 3 (or 4) hands, but what are you really beating? Granted it's a somewhat low buy-in, but AT AJ KQ KJ? I can't think of a lot of hands that raise in mid position that you're not racing most of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can think of quite a few hands that would raise in mid position but fold to a big re-raise. AJ, AT, KQ, 66-TT, maybe JJ if the player's tight. And he might be the sort to raise with any ace - there are tables where it can be right to do that.

You're pretty happy with a fold here.

[The once and future king]

The point is they will raise any pocket pairs and I do not want a coinflip.

I know I am going to get called thus there is no fold equity so there is no point making this move unless you are confident you are dominating the other hand. I repeat I do not want a coin flip with the BB at 50.

Yes players will raise with less than premium hands but not enough to make a push here EV. The most likely out come is that you are either dominated or in a coinflip as a slight dog. The times you are ahead will not compensate you enough for the times you are behind.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Out of curiosity, you're scared of 3 (or 4) hands, but what are you really beating? Granted it's a somewhat low buy-in, but AT AJ KQ KJ? I can't think of a lot of hands that raise in mid position that you're not racing most of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can think of quite a few hands that would raise in mid position but fold to a big re-raise. AJ, AT, KQ, 66-TT, maybe JJ if the player's tight. And he might be the sort to raise with any ace - there are tables where it can be right to do that.

You're pretty happy with a fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I thought villain was folding to a raise with AJ, AT or KQ, I'd muck this in a heartbeat. The fact that I think he's calling with these hands makes me want to push.

[Unarmed]

This is an easy fold for me.
If BB was 100 its an easy push.

[liucipher]

Agreed.

When you push over the top, it will be 525 to the original raiser with 1050 in the pot. I know there are a lot of monkeys, but that's fairly low fold equity I feel.

Could someone with Poker Stove run the win probability of AQo vs. 77+ KJ+ A9+

[kyro]

Let's play a game. Give me a range for MP.

[The once and future king]

[ QUOTE ]
If I thought villain was folding to a raise with AJ, AT or KQ, I'd muck this in a heartbeat. The fact that I think he's calling with these hands makes me want to push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you still high. I think this has to be one of the worst lines I have ever read. You fold even though a reraise takes down the pot with 325 chips in it? What are you smoking?

But this isnt the issue and I think you are trying to side track us as you have realised you are in the wrong.

The fact is that when you push he is allmost 100% to call with a hand that the majority of the time will either dominate you or be slightly ahead (PP). For any player who is ahead of the field in skill this is a -EV move no doubt about it.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
Agreed.

When you push over the top, it will be 525 to the original raiser with 1050 in the pot. I know there are a lot of monkeys, but that's fairly low fold equity I feel.

Could someone with Poker Stove run the win probability of AQo vs. 77+ KJ+ A9+

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, that's exactly what I have as a range for MP (although honestly it could be broader if you toss in dumb hands like JTs that some people get crazy about. But let's pretend he's not foolish).

Another thing we need to take into account (and it's something I didn't before. I think the converter messed up) Hero is not closing the action. There are still 4 people left to act. Obviously this would push it more in the fold direction...

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If I thought villain was folding to a raise with AJ, AT or KQ, I'd muck this in a heartbeat. The fact that I think he's calling with these hands makes me want to push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you still high. I think this has to be one of the worst lines I have ever read. You fold even though a reraise takes down the pot with 325 chips in it? What are you smoking?

But this isnt the issue and I think you are trying to side track us as you have realised you are in the wrong.

The fact is that when you push he is allmost 100% to call with a hand that the majority of the time will either dominate you or be slightly ahead (PP). For any player who is ahead of the field in skill this is a -EV move no doubt about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm talking about JUST those hands. I'm not including the pocket pairs here. If he folds AJ, AT, KQ, you win 325 chips 100% of the time. If he calls with those hands, you win 750 chips 70% of the time. This would increase your EV, no?

[The once and future king]

You said you would not reraise if you knew he would fold. That is infinte -ev. You are turning down free chips.

But we were not just discusing those hands. We are discusing the entire hand. Agianst the range of hands that he raises then calls with it is -EV to push here full stop.

[kyro]

The guy I was responding to wasn't. But you're right, including just those hands is useless and irrelevant when we're discussing a wide range. My apologies.

[fnord_too]

I think this is close but I usually push here. As others have noted, you probably don't have any FE here. However, what you do have is likely T125 in dead money in the pot and are aproaching a very short stack. (The poster who said how many hands until the next level is important is dead on, that matters a lot here.)

I really have no qualms about taking a coin flip here, and I really love it if villain has something like AJ.

Against AA-22, AKs-ATs, KQs-KJs, AKo-AJo, KQo you are 44% to win the hand, 4% to tie. So, assuming everyone else folds we have:
44% you end up with 1575 for EV $58.69
4% you tie and end up with 787 for $32.48
52% you go broke for EV 0.

That comes to a total EV of $27.12
Folding you have an EV of $30.19

Well, I stand corrected. Clear fold!

(Am I correct in assuming that with eastbays tool this sort of calculation will be greatly facilitated? This stuff is such a pain to do by hand!)

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
(The poster who said how many hands until the next level is important is dead on, that matters a lot here.)


[/ QUOTE ]

One of the few things I was right on it looks like.

[ QUOTE ]


Against AA-22, AKs-ATs, KQs-KJs, AKo-AJo, KQo you are 44% to win the hand, 4% to tie. So, assuming everyone else folds we have:


[/ QUOTE ]

I toss ATo and A9 in the mix. I don't think suits spur the decision in raising here. Even so, I really thought our equity would be higher than 44%. Toss in those two hands and it goes up to what, 48%? If this is the case, then I stand corrected. I'd fold. I really thought we had close to 55-60% here.

[fnord_too]

I was surprised by the math, too! If villain folds with any frequency, say 15% or more, I think it switches to a push since almost any hand he folds except MAYBE a weaker ace is an FTOP mistake in terms of chip EV. I am not sure how cashing EV affects that.

[Olback]

Thanks for the responses so far guys.

The blinds were going up next hand to 50/100.

My thought process for going all in was it is a big hand and i was playing tight all game. I thought if i was called i would be a 60/40 favourite or a coinflip which if i won i would have a comfortable chip stack for when the blinds go up.

Does that change anything? or is it still very marginally

[The once and future king]

Its a fold olbeck. You will be mr 40 or 45 more often than you are mr 60.

There are better spots and by going all in here you are passing them over.