Is THIS A Good GigaMove?

[Degen]

Other post on this jogged my memory on this hand. I talked this one over with some regular posters at Rio and they seemed to think this was a bad application. I sill like it...


$125 BI Winner Take All STT at Rio, couple days ago.

Blinds 25-50, Everybody starts with t1000

(stack sizes are approximated)
Eight players left, these are the people in the hand.

Seat 1 t2600
Seat 4 t775
Seat 5 t575
Seat 8 t750

Hero is SB and Seat 1 with 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

UTG+1 Raises to 400 (standard opening raise in this game), Seat 5 pushes for another 175, seat 8 pushes for ANOTHER 175, hero pushes.




My thought process:

If I win this pot, it is 5 handed and I have half the chips in play with 4 shorties. Gave over. Give me the $1120 first prize.

If I fold here, I have a good amount of chips but there will be another big stack at the table with me, and most likely 6-7 players left.

If I call and lose, I still have well over average at t1800.



Discuss.

[mistaken]

I think the difference may be the actual odds of winning this hand. You're gonna be at 1800 chips waaay more often than dominating the tourney 5-handed.

Gigabet's example was only a heads up one where he'd have at worst 30% odds of winning the hand.

Not sure if this is the right way of looking at it.

Mistaken

[Freudian]

I don't think so. You are up against two or even more likely three opponents. Without great luck your 32s will lose. If you are up against an overpair (which is pretty likely) you are drawing very slim.

As I see it, when you have gotten a good start to a tourney with this structure, it is silly to donk your edge away.

[maddog2030]

SNG Wiki (http://poker.wikicities.com/wiki/Sngs).

Luckily I have nothing better to do with my time at work so I can do this all day.

[Wes ManTooth]

It's not worth dumping almost a third of your stack on this hand, your way behind and losing this hand you will also give up the chip lead.

[2+2 wannabe]

i think this is a poor decision

[bkbluedevil]

Degen,

I love this spot for a Gigabet type move so I'm with you on that. However you should consider ranges before you just throw all in. Someone is pocketed. 23s sucks against higher pocket pairs. I think you're chances of winning this pot is in the neighborhood of 12-15%. If you had like 9Ts or there were less action if front it would be a lot more debatable.

[KingMedicine]

in general i love this sort of play, but the problem lies in your holdings. there is such a huge chance youre up against an overpair and even when youre not, with so many cards seeing the board, someone will hit a pair meaning youll need at least 2 pair to have a shot.
its likely that your 2 and 3 are live at least, and i like that theyre suited, but youre almost definitely gonna need 2 pair, trips or a flush here to take this, and without figuring out the math, im pretty sure its not worth it, even when you factor in the fact that winning the hand will allow you to dominate the rest of the show.

give you a 67s or a 78s and i love the move. 23s is just too hard to see taking the pot. and for the record, i wouldnt make this move with 22 or 33 either.

[Scuba Chuck]

Degen, whether you like this move or not, it's not the 'giga-move' you're trying to refer to. The average (not median) of the 4 remaining stacks not listed is t1175. You are likely the dominant stack in the game. You already have the ability to control/dominate the other players if you wish. Furthermore, I'd need to know the future blind structure changes to get a real feel for whether a giga-move would even matter here. IF the blinds do not rise fast enough, then this is a terrible play (despite the terrible cards).

That being said, if your hand was more attractive, like TJs, I could see your interest in being in a pot like this. Not my style, but I understand.

Scuba

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]

I think you're chances of winning this pot is in the neighborhood of 12-15%.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's probably being too generous.

[Degen]

haha alright, i'm a man, i can admit when i'm wrong...IT WORKED MR. DICKEN!! YOU HAVE SUCCESSFULLY CAUSED PEOPLE TO DUMP CHIPS IN GAMES WHERE THEY OTHERWISE WOULD NOT HAVE!!!

lol

[barycentric]

Are you talking about the hand when Gigabet holding no pair no draw bluffed out someone with trip aces? If so this hand is not quite the same in that you can't get the people all-in to fold.

[Degen]

no he had Q3 and repopped a shorty who pushed from the BB, though he didn't realized one of the 2 upfront limpers had KK, tho he flopped two and took down a monster pot

[The Yugoslavian]

Are you smoking something?

I don't like this move at all. If you're at the WSOP, you can probably even corner Giga and ask him yourself if you'd like. I'm almost positive he wouldn't like this move considering your hand.

Yugoslav

[gergery]

There are enormous differences between Gig’s hand and this one.

First, Gig had good fold equity, you don’t. He could expect the others to all fold a large percentage of the time since they limped and only put in a small fraction of their stack. Here 2 players are already all in, and the other one has put in over half his stack and is getting great odds to call.

Second, Gig had good showdown equity. He was likely ~ 35-40% underdog getting 1.5 to 1 on his money, meaning its relatively close to EV neutral and potentially EV+. Here, you are at the very best 25% equity to 2 different overcards, and much more likely ~14% equity making this a significantly negative EV play. So this is anywhere from slightly EV- to very EV-

Third, Gig could cross a threshold if he won but would not cross a threshold if he lost. Here, you cannot cross a threshold if you win, but do cross one if you lose – the exact opposite. If Gig won, then he becomes big stack at his table and can be doubled thru while still having above par stack – he will have much higher fold equity. If you win you are still a monster stack – no change in fold equity. If Gig lost then he goes from even with another big stack to close to par – he loses little fold equity. If you lose, then a player with position on you is just as big as you. You can be busted now.

This is actually the case study on how NOT to implement his ideas.

--Greg

[good2cu]

When I see 3 all-ins and look down at 32s it's an insta-call. Because it is sooted!!!

[Degen]

ya only saw him once and he looked really pissed and was walking 23 miles an hour, didn't want to get in his way /images/graemlins/smile.gif

ya i guess i was wrong: thats like 15 ppl so far who don't like it, o well...my wanna be giga-days are over i guess /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Degen]

great post and analysis, futher proof that i was a donkey for one hand hehe

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
ya only saw him once and he looked really pissed and was walking 23 miles an hour, didn't want to get in his way /images/graemlins/smile.gif


[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, they probably had run out of Red Bull. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Yugoslav

[shejk]

I just noticed this thread and I'm not so sure that calling is a bad move.

I ran some numbers in pokerstove and got these results:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 56.7161 % [ 00.56 00.01 ] { AA }
Hand 2: 14.1680 % [ 00.14 00.00 ] { AA-66, AKs-A9s, KQs, AKo-AJo }
Hand 3: 13.8116 % [ 00.13 00.01 ] { AA-TT, AKs-AQs, AKo-AQo }
Hand 4: 15.3043 % [ 00.15 00.00 ] { 32s }

(These are just approximations, and the reason one guy gets aa for sure is that it would take forever for my pokerstove to calculate 23s vs three ranges otherwise)

15.3%. That means that you lose like 750 * 2/5 = 300 chips in chip ev.

The question is, how easy is it to accumulate chips with a 5k stack compared to a 1800 and a 2600 one?

My guess is that there are circumstances where it's a good call. Note that 67s have 20.3% against the same matchup btw.

EDIT: Looking over my ranges I realise that I'm problably a bit on the tight side. Don't think it should matter that much though(?).

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
If I win this pot, it is 5 handed and I have half the chips in play with 4 shorties. Gave over. Give me the $1120 first prize.

[/ QUOTE ]

unless these guys are dumb, it's gonna play just like a cash game. there's no running over the table. there's no extra value to having a big stack.

i doubt that guys who open raise 8x know these things, but i still think there is no place for this kind of crap in a winner take all.

and i still wouldn't like it in a normal stt, so it's really bad here.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
The question is, how easy is it to accumulate chips with a 5k stack compared to a 1800 and a 2600 one?

[/ QUOTE ]

should be pretty much the same in winner take all.

[psyduck]

you do realize that you hand is 3 high right?

I don't understand this AT ALL

[shejk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The question is, how easy is it to accumulate chips with a 5k stack compared to a 1800 and a 2600 one?

[/ QUOTE ]

should be pretty much the same in winner take all.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right, damnit. I didn't think about that when considering.