3/5 AK hand with interesting river decision

[fimbulwinter]

just switched games, villain is about 35 and has a very nice watch on (audemars piguet) and hasn't played a hand in the 5 or so i've been there. Assume he's a good player (i didn't know tht at the time, but he was). FWIW the hand is tweaked slightly from how it really happened, I'll adress that in the results (the real hand wasn't interesting at all).

3/5

I (cover) get AK/images/graemlins/club.gif and open in MP to 20, BB (~450) calls.

A/images/graemlins/spade.gif9/images/graemlins/heart.gif5/images/graemlins/spade.gif (40)

check, I bet 40, BB calls

A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (120)

check, I bet 100, BB calls

4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (320)

BB shoves for ~290

fim

[soah]

Bob Ciaffone says to fold.

[xorbie]

I think he's hard pressed to push here with anything less than an A, because he can't honestly be expecting you to fold an A with his missed flush draw. I'm leaning towards a fold here, because I don't think he expects to have much FE here and his line looks fairly reasonable with a set or even a suited ace which boated up.

[fimbulwinter]

this is one of the reasons i posted this, but the fact that there is a missed draw out there and that i didn't amke trips until the turn make it a little less clear cut maybe?

fim

[xorbie]

I'd be more inclined to call if you had bet $50-$80 on the turn. With your $100 bet, you are either thinks you are bluffing him (in which case he is going to check call with almost any hand, or bet less if he himself is trying to bluff you off of a K high), or he is trying to push you off of an A, which seems like a pretty idiotic move with less than a potsize bet in his stack.

[soah]

I don't know. I'm not Bob Ciaffone. And I don't think Bob Ciaffone's advice generally takes into account the donk factor present in these games that you keep managing to locate.

That said though, I can't really put this guy on a bluff. He presumably doesn't yet know that you're [censored] insane, so he has to give you credit for having what you're representing there, but he probably doesn't give you credit for being Bob Ciaffone and being able to lay down AK to a river push. That's just not a spot that a thinking player is going to bluff very often. You need to win at least 1 time in 3 and I'm not sure you have enough donk equity to make the call. But you're probably in a better position to judge that than me.

[fimbulwinter]

[ QUOTE ]
donk equity

[/ QUOTE ]

ooooooo, i like that.

fim

[TheWorstPlayer]

If he's a good player, with a good hand, I don't see any reason why he wouldn't have bet/raised before the river. Are you slowplaying anything on that flop? I'm sure as hell not since there is an ace and a draw the preflop raiser probably hit the flop and he probably will put me on a draw and give me action.

Even though it is unlikely that the preflop raiser is on the flush draw since the ace is on the board, it is still possible that you are raising KQs or QJs or whatever so there is a hand protection issue, but more importantly, if a spade hits the turn his set or whatever will no longer get action because he played the flop exactly like he had a draw. So I really don't see how it can be a good hand. Also he might not put you on an ace because there are two on the board. It wouldn't be a bad time to bluff a missed spade draw.

[fimbulwinter]

in reality the 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif was a K and so i obviously did call. he did have a set and i wasn't sure how i would have played the hand had i not filled. i agree with everyone now that there certainly isnt enough donk equity in most players to justify a call there.


thanks all
fim