a semi-theoretical question

[SossMan]

$2/$3 NL cash game at Commerce

Hero has about $275 and villian has $235.

Villian has been active but hasn't been caught being out of line. I suspect that is simply a coincidence, but can't be sure.

Hero has AKo in the BB. MP open limp, villian limps on the button, SB completes, Hero raises to $15, only SB folds.

Flop is
K /images/graemlins/diamond.gifT /images/graemlins/club.gif6 /images/graemlins/club.gif

Pot is $48.

Hero bets $40, MP folds, villian instantly pushes.

I don't really want to debate calling or folding, simply this:

Should having the Ace of clubs in the hero's hand make him more or less willing to call the all in?

[vulturesrow]

[ QUOTE ]
$2/$3 NL cash game at Commerce

Hero has about $275 and villian has $235.

Villian has been active but hasn't been caught being out of line. I suspect that is simply a coincidence, but can't be sure.

Hero has AKo in the BB. MP open limp, villian limps on the button, SB completes, Hero raises to $15, only SB folds.

Flop is
K /images/graemlins/diamond.gifT /images/graemlins/club.gif6 /images/graemlins/club.gif

Pot is $48.

Hero bets $40, MP folds, villian instantly pushes.

I don't really want to debate calling or folding, simply this:

Should having the Ace of clubs in the hero's hand make him more or less willing to call the all in?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok I'll bite. I say more willing. If hes the type to push with a flush draw, you have some insurance. If you are behind, to a set or 2-pair, you have more suckout potential.

[DrLAXLAX]

If y are raising with AK then what board do you waiting for? AAK? Clear call for me, no matter what kind of ace y have. I think other guy bets his AQ.

[xorbie]

[ QUOTE ]
If y are raising with AK then what board do you waiting for? AAK? Clear call for me, no matter what kind of ace y have. I think other guy bets his AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

What the [censored]? AQ? How about TT?

To the OP, I'm less likely to call because this guy can't even be pushing Ax/images/graemlins/club.gif if I have it (and I don't think he's pushing a non-nut flush draw without at least a pair to go with it).

If this guy isn't pushing with a draw here, then my A/images/graemlins/club.gif adds maybe 2% to my win advantage and that's not really enough to factor too heavily into my decision (i.e. I would have to be able to make a rediculously accurate calculation in my head based on very precise and detailed read to have that 2% push it into + or - EV.

[elus2]

[ QUOTE ]
If y are raising with AK then what board do you waiting for? AAK? Clear call for me, no matter what kind of ace y have. I think other guy bets his AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

KT or a hand like pair+flush draw or flush+straight draw is a more likely hand for villain to be pushing with here. I'm mucking even with Ac unless villain has shown a habit for pushing on the flop with weaker hands.

[boxedIn]

Alright, let's do it Ben Franklin style and make a list.

Pros
If he's semi-bluffing a non-nut flush draw, you take away one of his outs and give yourself a redraw if it hits on the turn.

If he has a better hand than you, you gain a bit of suckout potential.

You might be freerolling him if he also has AK.

Cons
This means he doesn't have the nut flush draw, which means he's more likely to have a stronger holding.

That's all I got -- are there more?


All in all, I'm straddling the line between "who cares?" to "I'd be more likely to call." There seems to be very little con to having the Ac, but also very little pro. The main advantage, as I see it, is the freeroll against another AK. That is a dream -- not a huge one, but a dream nonetheless.

Am I missing something from either the pro/con side?

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
If y are raising with AK then what board do you waiting for? AAK? Clear call for me, no matter what kind of ace y have. I think other guy bets his AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

please read:

I don't really want to debate calling or folding, simply this:

Should having the Ace of clubs in the hero's hand make him more or less willing to call the all in?

[DrLAXLAX]

Ok, but if opponent has KT, TT, why to push here? Miniraise. If opponent think that you are betting drawing hand like thet then push is ok. IMO if he has monster he wount want to push you out. But thats not the question.

[xorbie]

Let's look at it this way. Against the nut flush draw, you are about a 2:1 favorite, so you have 66% pot equity. If he only has a nut flush draw 10% of the time here, that's 6.6% pot equity against his range. So if you have the A/images/graemlins/club.gif, that means you lose 6.6% equity against his range in exchange for an extra 2% or so that the backdoor nut flush draw gives you.

So it looks like him having the nut flush draw as little has 3% of the time when he pulls this move, means I am less likely to call with the A/images/graemlins/club.gif in my hand.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Alright, let's do it Ben Franklin style and make a list.

Pros
If he's semi-bluffing a non-nut flush draw, you take away one of his outs and give yourself a redraw if it hits on the turn.

If he has a better hand than you, you gain a bit of suckout potential.

You might be freerolling him if he also has AK.

Cons
This means he doesn't have the nut flush draw, which means he's more likely to have a stronger holding.

That's all I got -- are there more?


All in all, I'm straddling the line between "who cares?" to "I'd be more likely to call." There seems to be very little con to having the Ac, but also very little pro. The main advantage, as I see it, is the freeroll against another AK. That is a dream -- not a huge one, but a dream nonetheless.

Am I missing something from either the pro/con side?

[/ QUOTE ]

no, you pretty much hit it.

anyway, i had the Ac and i called (after a pretty long think for this game) and he had Kc5c and whiffed

[elus2]

because he knows he'll be getting action from guys like you when you're holding AA/AK. even if he's holding a strong draw with equity of ~50% 2/3's of the time here but has you smashed the other 1/3 of the time you can muck top pair top kicker.

[vulturesrow]

In case anyone is interested, he is the equity breakdown from pokerstove:

Hand as posted:

990 games 0.005 secs 198,000 games/sec

Board: Kd Tc 6c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 61.6162 % 61.01% 00.61% { AcKh }
Hand 2: 38.3838 % 37.78% 00.61% { Kc5c }


---

When you dont have Ac:

990 games 0.005 secs 198,000 games/sec

Board: Kd Tc 6c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 55.4545 % 54.85% 00.61% { AsKh }
Hand 2: 44.5455 % 43.94% 00.61% { Kc5c }

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
In case anyone is interested, he is the equity breakdown from pokerstove:

Hand as posted:

990 games 0.005 secs 198,000 games/sec

Board: Kd Tc 6c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 61.6162 % 61.01% 00.61% { AcKh }
Hand 2: 38.3838 % 37.78% 00.61% { Kc5c }


---

When you dont have Ac:

990 games 0.005 secs 198,000 games/sec

Board: Kd Tc 6c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 55.4545 % 54.85% 00.61% { AsKh }
Hand 2: 44.5455 % 43.94% 00.61% { Kc5c }

[/ QUOTE ]



haha, that's not really the point though...of course i would like to have the Ac if i knew he had Kc5c. duh!! the point was that he is more likely to be semibluffing the nut flush draw if I don't have the Ac vs. if I do. If i have the Ac, now if i want to put him on a draw, i have to eliminate the most obvious one from my hand range (making sets/two pairs more prevelant).
My inquiry was the extent of the effect of those offsetting factors...

[vulturesrow]

[ QUOTE ]

haha, that's not really the point though...of course i would like to have the Ac if i knew he had Kc5c. duh!! the point was that he is more likely to be semibluffing the nut flush draw if I don't have the Ac vs. if I do. If i have the Ac, now if i want to put him on a draw, i have to eliminate the most obvious one from my hand range (making sets/two pairs more prevelant).
My inquiry was the extent of the effect of those offsetting factors...

[/ QUOTE ]
Yup I know. But since there were some questions about equity I figured Id run a couple. But it was getting late and I didnt feel like doing any of the other scenarios /images/graemlins/smile.gif Maybe later if anyone is interested.

[amoeba]

this is interesting topic.

I wonder if the answer is different based on whether it came down

Kc Tc 6d

vs

Kd Tc 6c

[TheWorstPlayer]

More. Even if you don't have it, he's not pushing here with just the NFD. It would be a pair+FD or OESD+FD. His pair+FD hands are basically only AK which you aren't beating anyways. His OESD is QJs. If you didn't have the A/images/graemlins/club.gif then he has 9 flush outs. When you have the A/images/graemlins/club.gif he only has 8 flush outs and you have the nuts backdoor draw, so he needs three exactly, not four on the board. So I think you should be more likely to call with the A/images/graemlins/club.gif since he is a)unlikely to call a raise with Axs and b)unlikely to push with just the NFD. And I don't think it's close. Not saying whether or not you should call, though, of course.

[xorbie]

Why isn't he pushing with the nut flush draw? Especially on this board where he could have a gutshot to go with it (AQ/AJ). Against JQ/images/graemlins/club.gif you already have one of his outs, it's not like the A/images/graemlins/club.gif double counts and, again, you only have 6 outs anyway if he does hit the flush on the turn, so again you really only gain 2-3% equity.

I think pair + flush draw is really the only case where having the A/images/graemlins/club.gif has, so I do think it's close.

[TheWorstPlayer]

I didn't remember that he was suspected of being LAG. He could have NFD.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
More. Even if you don't have it, he's not pushing here with just the NFD. It would be a pair+FD or OESD+FD. His pair+FD hands are basically only AK which you aren't beating anyways. His OESD is QJs. If you didn't have the A/images/graemlins/club.gif then he has 9 flush outs. When you have the A/images/graemlins/club.gif he only has 8 flush outs and you have the nuts backdoor draw, so he needs three exactly, not four on the board. So I think you should be more likely to call with the A/images/graemlins/club.gif since he is a)unlikely to call a raise with Axs and b)unlikely to push with just the NFD. And I don't think it's close. Not saying whether or not you should call, though, of course.

[/ QUOTE ]

this player would definitely call a raise preflop w/ Axs