Clear bubble fold?

[11t]

Just checking thru my HH and I found this one. My question isn't so much about this hand but the what to do during/after it.

SB was extremely weak-tight and was probably going to fold here unless he was dealt a very strong holding so my question is two part, what to do here AND if you fold here do you push whatever you are dealt UTG?

Lets mix it up even more, does it change anything if you knew the big stack was a calling station and you had a decent (lets ball park it at 35-45% chance) of being called with whatever two cards he is dealt if you push UTG next hand.

I really need to learn to do ICM in my head

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t1995)
SB (t1855)
BB (t1190)
UTG (t8460)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero...

[Nottom]

Fixed your title.

[bkbluedevil]

ICM likes a push here assuming the BB will call with a random hand and sb will call with TT+,AQs+,AKo. It is actually like a +1.6% push so it's quite clear.

If I'm utg I wouldn't need much of a hand to push here. Prob random or better like Q7o and up. I don't think the button or SB can call without a big hand and will be running all in against a random hand with a nice overlay from the SB. If the other stacks were slightly bigger I'd like a fold and hope to keep the bubble alive play.

[kasey2004]

[ QUOTE ]
Fixed your title.

[/ QUOTE ]

this looks pretty obvious even to my weak tight ass /images/graemlins/wink.gif

/images/graemlins/spade.gif Kasey /images/graemlins/spade.gif