Scare card gets there - That's a good thing right?

[Lestat]

Party 30-60


1 early limper, I complete the sb with K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif, bb checks.

Flop is A /images/graemlins/spade.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif

I bet, bb raises, limper folds, I re-raise, bb calls.

Turn is 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

I bet, bb raises, I re-raise, he caps, I call.

River is T /images/graemlins/club.gif

I check, he bets, I raise.

Right or wrong?

[Xhiggy]

wow, you played that a lot more aggressively than I would have. any reads on bb?
I don't really like betting out there, especially with a limper, and much prefer check-raising if I do decide to play there. and with an earlier limper, I think I even fold this more often than not.

after the flop, I'd only play like this against a hyper-aggressive opponent. I don't see how this scare card helps you, as the hand I'd be most concerned about the villain having is a boat. any reasonable villain that has the trips with a weaker kicker I think just calls the turn 3bet and calls down.

I'm wondering if there's any value left at all..

[Lestat]

Thanks for your thoughts Xhiggy.

I'm curious why you feel I may not have flopped the best hand with 2nd pair/best kicker against 1 early limper and a random big blind?

[Xhiggy]

hello,

you're right, I've probably been undervalue-ing hands like this too soon, but once you do lead out, I feel that the BB's raise here is a lot more legitimate given the prescence of the limper, and the fact that this is not a flop to bluff-lead at.

my default line without a read on the BB would be to call the raise, and then re-evaluate on the turn. but then again, I've probably become too passive out of position lately with too much emphasis on getting to showdown..

[roy_miami]

Is completing with K5o standard? I only do it if the limper is horrible.

[Lestat]

Good point. He didn't strike me as good, which was why I played. That and the fact he was the only limper.

[pokerhooker]

On the turn, your re-raise represents at least trip 5's yet he still capped. What did you put him on? If it was a lesser 5, the T didn't help you and might have filled him up if he wasn't already. If he has a 5, I'll let him bet it.

I check-call, or bet and call a raise, although I believe some people will find that a weak line.

I assume you are trying to represent a flush when you mention "scare card" in the title, but for the same reason you didn't put him on a flush draw, he doesn't put you on one: there was too much action on the flop and turn to be drawing.

The worst-case scenario, of course, is that a flush is no good anyway, and that he filled up. Do you fold to a river 3-bet?

[flawless_victory]

it sure doesnt look like clubs are relevant to this hand, but i guess that river will prob save you from getting threebet on the end by 24.

[Lestat]

I actually liked my hand the whole way, although I did become a little nervous after he capped the turn. I thought the Tc was actually a good card for me. The way the hand played out, he is now very hard pressed to 3-bet anything less than a full house. I probably should've mentioned the bb was not a bad player, albeit maybe a little over aggressive at times.

[elindauer]

Hi Lestat,

I'm not a fan of your preflop call, in the worst position with an easily dominated hand. Your flop 3-bet is aggressive but I like it, the SB may well raise any pair there, and you beat most of those holdings.

Once you've 3-bet the flop, your hand looks like an ace, so if the BB has a dominated 5 he's loving the turn card and that explains his action on the turn. You are probably still ahead.

In light of that, I like your decision to put in one more raise on the river. It's only when he puts in one more raise that you will know that you are behind. Your odds of winning swing dramatically on whether or not he 3-bets.

Good luck.
Eric

[pokerhooker]

[ QUOTE ]
I actually liked my hand the whole way

[/ QUOTE ]

Heh, at some point you have to not like your hand:

1) on the flop, his raise is an ace, or at least can beat your 5
2) on the turn, your 5 just leapfrogged an ace, but why is he capping?
3) on the river, flush draw got there

All the betting just seems like a fast-played set, 33... but then it's sounding like your value river check-raise worked and your hand was good.

[Lestat]

Well as elindauer pointed out, my 3-bet on the flop might have got him to misread my hand for a pair of aces, A3, or maybe an ace with a club draw. Now if he has a 5, he's gotta love it. This could promote a little extra action on the turn.

I won't say if I won or lost yet. I'm not Mason.. I do post hands that I lose. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif In fact, I only post hands where I questioned my play. Usually they are losers, but not all of them.

[Lestat]

Wouldn't you sometimes play an ace with a club draw the same way (as I did)?

[BradL]

The river looks to be a situation where you can checkraise to save bets when you are behind, he certainly shouldnt have clubs in his hand very often given his prior action. Im oddly comfortable with every street.

-Brad

[Justin A]

Looks good to me. I think you'll see a worse 5 the majority of the time.

[Mempho]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Lestat,

I'm not a fan of your preflop call, in the worst position with an easily dominated hand. Your flop 3-bet is aggressive but I like it, the SB may well raise any pair there, and you beat most of those holdings.



[/ QUOTE ]

OK...let's back up here for a second. I realize this thread is more or less about how to play the river and I've read the whole thing and I've played the river in a similar situation both ways.

There's still something I don't get here. You have 3 small bets in the pot and bet with middle pair into the pot (which I like and endorse) but you get raised by the BB (who could have an ace, but he could also driving out the limper or forcing the limper to show his hand).

Now, when the BB raises, you decide to 3-bet. I would like to know why. If this is a value play, I would perceive it to be pretty slim.

Are you merely trying to get some information here? Because if it gets 4-bet here, you have 10 small bets in the pot, meaning that you have to call to try to catch trips/2 pair even if he turned an ace over. So you call, making the pot 11 small bets and 5.5 big bets. Now, the play is easy if you hit a K or a 5...but if you don't, you check and he bets...putting 6.5 BB in the pot.

Now, the pot is laying you 6.5 to 1. If you put him on an ace, you roughly 10 to 1, right? It seems to be an easy fold...but, what if he would do this with an Ace or better and a flush draw. Now, your odds are getting a lot closer and you don't really want to surrender your equity in the pot.

However, if you call the turn, you pretty much have to call the river for one more bet.

On the other hand...if he just calls your 3-bet and you lead out on the turn, there are 5.5 BB in the pot and then he raises, you are up to 7.5 BB.

OTOH, if you just call the flop raise, there are only 3.5BB in the pot. Maybe you could lead and fold to a raise getting only 4.5 to 1?


What exactly am I missing here about this play????? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Nightwish]

I really dislike the preflop call. The limper would have to be pretty bad to make it right.

The flop bet is fine, and the 3-bet is fine too....occasionally, and only if you think your opponent is capable of folding 77/66.

The turn sure looks like a great card for you, but I would be worried when he caps. You now need to seriously contemplate whether you're behind to a flopped straight or a turned full house. Of course, you have to call, but your hand is no longer as strong as you thought before.

Given all that, the river check-raise doesn't look +EV to me.

[DpR]

On the flop BB doesn't cap. There is good chance he wants to raise the turn already - that means pretty strong hand - A5, A3, 33, 24, 35, all possible. I do not think something like a10 is playing it this way, and when the turn comes I think we can eliminate most of those hands, unless he is laggy.

To me the turn raise and cap has to be trip 5's AT WORST. I do not think a Ax clubs is going crazy there at all, unless he is crazy. You certainly make it clear by your 3 bet that you can beat any Ace, and it seems you have a 5 - yet he caps anyway. If we go back the the flop range - A3 is counterfeited, so that is out, A5, 24, 33, 35 all possible. While other hands with 5's in them would rasie and cap, it is not obvious they would raise the flop AND there is reason to be nervous about a better 5 after your three bet. I certainly cannot discount a random 5 completely, but I think it is less likley then the above range. So ugh, you are behind all those hands. Yes, the river brings a scare card but that only scares 24, which to me is the least likley of the 4 hands. I think you lost to a boat here.

I would check call the river. I just do not think you are ahead here enough. Of course this all assumes this is not one of those players that gets a little crazy in shorthanded pots.

[Lestat]

<font color="red"> and it seems you have a 5 </font>

What about my flop play would make him put me on a 5? Especially if HE has one?

<font color="red">While other hands with 5's in them would rasie and cap, it is not obvious they would raise the flop... </font>

Don't forget an A53 flop is a pretty standard bluff bet for most small blinds in this situation, since a sb would have no reason to think anyone has an ace and might easily pick up the pot unconstested. Now an aggressive bb might try a re-steal with a wide variety of hands. This happens all the time.

<font color="red">...AND there is reason to be nervous about a better 5 after your three bet. </font>

There is no better 5 than K5, unless it's a full house.

[Lestat]

<font color="red"> I really dislike the preflop call. The limper would have to be pretty bad to make it right. </font>

K5 is certainly playable against a random big blind hand and what if the limper is very predictable?

[Lestat]

<font color="red">Now, when the BB raises, you decide to 3-bet. I would like to know why. If this is a value play, I would perceive it to be pretty slim. </font>

You're correct the reason for posting this hand was mainly because I was interested in comments about the river play, but I'll try to address your question about the flop:

An A53 flop would be a very standard steal play for a sb. Very often he will pick up a pot uncontested against a random big blind hand and an UTG limper. A good big blind (or limper), will realize this and might often try to re-steal. So if you're the sb, just calling a raise or folding to a raise is not automatic. Especially when you have 2nd pair/best kicker.

Another reason to 3 bet is that if you are against a pocket pair such as 77, etc., you are correct to call after he raises. Yet, if there is any chance a 3-bet from you might convince him to fold his pocket pair on the turn, it is certainly worth it to do so. Don't forget there are a lot of overcards which might come to his pair.

Lastly, you should sometimes 3-bet the flop for meta-game considerations. I don't necessarily want him folding next time when I really do have an ace or better. I also want to send a message that it can get expensive for him to try and outplay me if all he has is a small pair, etc.

So as you are correct that this play could easily be a -EV taken in an isolated incident. But if used rarely and with good judgement, I believe it can be +EV over the long run.

[fsuplayer]

im learning alot in this thread.

great stuff, thanks for the explanations lestat.

[Lestat]

Thanks for all the comments. I was a little dissappointed that the river didn't get discussed more. Here are the results and some thoughts on the river play.

He called my check/raise and my hand beat out 65.

About the river:

I thought there was a decent enough chance that we had both caught a 5 on the turn and that my hand was still good. But I'm not a total idiot. I realize there are quite a few hands that beat me as well...

If I bet the river, he will just call with some of the hands that beat mine (such as a straight, flush, or small full house), and will always just call when my hand is good. So in each case, I either win or lose 1 bet.

Yet, he will always raise with his stronger hands and I of course, will be obliged to payy him off. In these cases, I will lose 3 bets. However, if I check/raise...

He simply can't 3 bet me with a worse hand after the club hits. So I will lose 2 bets to some of the same hands he beats me with, but I will now also gain an extra bet (win 2 bets), when my hand is good. In the end, I thought I gained the most +EV by check/raising, instead of betting.

I know this is dicey and I'm not that good at math. Is my thinking flawed here?

[Your Mom]

very good post lestat.

[Your Mom]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for all the comments. I was a little dissappointed that the river didn't get discussed more. Here are the results and some thoughts on the river play.

He called my check/raise and my hand beat out 65.

About the river:

I thought there was a decent enough chance that we had both caught a 5 on the turn and that my hand was still good. But I'm not a total idiot. I realize there are quite a few hands that beat me as well...

If I bet the river, he will just call with some of the hands that beat mine (such as a straight, flush, or small full house), and will always just call when my hand is good. So in each case, I either win or lose 1 bet.

Yet, he will always raise with his stronger hands and I of course, will be obliged to payy him off. In these cases, I will lose 3 bets. However, if I check/raise...

He simply can't 3 bet me with a worse hand after the club hits. So I will lose 2 bets to some of the same hands he beats me with, but I will now also gain an extra bet (win 2 bets), when my hand is good. In the end, I thought I gained the most +EV by check/raising, instead of betting.

I know this is dicey and I'm not that good at math. Is my thinking flawed here?

[/ QUOTE ]

you're folding to a 3 bet on the riv, right?

[DpR]

[ QUOTE ]
<font color="red"> and it seems you have a 5 </font>

What about my flop play would make him put me on a 5? Especially if HE has one?

<font color="red">While other hands with 5's in them would rasie and cap, it is not obvious they would raise the flop... </font>

Don't forget an A53 flop is a pretty standard bluff bet for most small blinds in this situation, since a sb would have no reason to think anyone has an ace and might easily pick up the pot unconstested. Now an aggressive bb might try a re-steal with a wide variety of hands. This happens all the time.

<font color="red">...AND there is reason to be nervous about a better 5 after your three bet. </font>

There is no better 5 than K5, unless it's a full house.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm, Im not good with the colored text et al.
I guess my mesaage was not very clear.

1) Nothing about your flop play sugests you have a 5. Your turn 3 bet suggests it.
2) I agree a 5 is not impossible and I mentioned it, however I feel it is less likely than the other possibles. Even in the 30 about 50% of players are afraid to raise there is a 5.
3) I was referring to reason for your opponent to be nervous about a better 5, not you. Thus he has reason not to cap the turn with only a 5.

So I stand by what I intended with the original message. Now I'll check your results post.

[DpR]

hehe, in theory

[DpR]

I dont agree he jsut calls with a small full house. He capped the turn, not you, thus you have not proven to him yet you have a boat.

Vs. check calling. When behind to boat you lose 2BB more. When behind to straigh you lose 1BB more. I think when behind to flush you lose 2BB more (but you can argue only 1BB). When ahead (which is only to smaller trips or donk stuff) you gain 1 bet - but only when he doesn't check behind (probably unlikley, but not impossible if he starts thinking on the river).

NO WAY you are ahead &gt; 2/3 here (lets assume the chance of straight is countered by the chance he checks behind). In fact, even if a reraise is not possible, I am not so sure you are ahead here&gt;50%.

[Nightwish]

[ QUOTE ]
<font color="red"> I really dislike the preflop call. The limper would have to be pretty bad to make it right. </font>

K5 is certainly playable against a random big blind hand and what if the limper is very predictable?

[/ QUOTE ]
K5 is definitely playable against a random BB hand (in fact, I'd be raising it if it's folded to me in the SB). And it's playable if the limper is bad, which is what it sounds like you're telling me.

[Nightwish]

[ QUOTE ]
<font color="red">Now, when the BB raises, you decide to 3-bet. I would like to know why. If this is a value play, I would perceive it to be pretty slim. </font>

You're correct the reason for posting this hand was mainly because I was interested in comments about the river play, but I'll try to address your question about the flop:

An A53 flop would be a very standard steal play for a sb. Very often he will pick up a pot uncontested against a random big blind hand and an UTG limper. A good big blind (or limper), will realize this and might often try to re-steal. So if you're the sb, just calling a raise or folding to a raise is not automatic. Especially when you have 2nd pair/best kicker.

Another reason to 3 bet is that if you are against a pocket pair such as 77, etc., you are correct to call after he raises. Yet, if there is any chance a 3-bet from you might convince him to fold his pocket pair on the turn, it is certainly worth it to do so. Don't forget there are a lot of overcards which might come to his pair.

Lastly, you should sometimes 3-bet the flop for meta-game considerations. I don't necessarily want him folding next time when I really do have an ace or better. I also want to send a message that it can get expensive for him to try and outplay me if all he has is a small pair, etc.

So as you are correct that this play could easily be a -EV taken in an isolated incident. But if used rarely and with good judgement, I believe it can be +EV over the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you described exactly what I was trying to say in my post about this flop 3-bet play being right occasionally. You just described it better. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Lestat]

I'm not an advocate of folding big pots, but if he can raise me with a worse hand here, he deserves to win it... I think I mentioned that the bb was not a bad player. Against some of the more loosely screwed down opponents that you sometimes find on Party, I'd have felt obligated to call a 3rd bet. But then, I wouldn't have check/raised such a player.

[Lestat]

Thanks DpR-

This is some of the discussion I was looking for.

So you don't even like betting the river, is that right? Preferring to check/call? I see your point. You will never lose 2 bets and can expect to make 1 more almost always when ahead.

Maybe I got greedy. My read was pretty strong he had a (worse) 5 and I was only concerened with maximizing. But I certainly could've been wrong about his hand too. So the number you came up with is that I have to be ahead 2/3's here? I don't know if I was that sure or not. Even now I'm too lazy to do the proper math on this. I'm embarrassed to admit that I pretty much rely on feel in the heat of battle.

[DpR]

Yeah my quick math in my head suggest a check call. When comparing c/r vs c/c: if he was worse hand you gain 1 bet; when he has straight you lose 1 more bet; when he has flush or boat you lose 2 more bets (I think he three bets the flush, but I also think there is almost zero chance he has a flush here so it doesnt matter). Ignoring the straight you have to be ahead 2/3 to break even between these two options. So including the straight it is a little less than that. If you can fold to a 3 bet then you only need to be ahead 1/2 - I just don't think many people are doing that here with this big pot (and it is total distaster if he can 3 bet w/o being ahead).

Now to compare c/c to betting out: I figure he just calls your bet with a worse hand or a straight, and raises you with flush or boat. You pretty much gain nothing here by betting out since get the same when ahead and it is worse when behind. (we've already assumed he is not checking behind with worse hands, otherwise the c/r case looks horrible).

So in summary, I think check/call is the right play. But if you think you are ahead almost 2/3 of the time then you played it right.

[pokerhooker]

My original post suggested a check call on the river, too.

Here is some quick math with what I consider the hands that would be congruent with his flop and turn raises:

Hands that will 3 bet you when you check-raise:
AA = 3
A5 = 3
T5 = 3
9 combinations x 3 bets

Hands that beat you that just call your check-raise:
33 = 3
53 = 3
42 = 16
Axc = 10
32 combinations x 2 bets

Hands you beat that call the check-raise:
trip 5's = 32
32 combinations x 2 bets

Since the last two categories negate each other, the real loss is the 9/73 times he'll 3-bet you.

If you just check call, he's likely betting all these hands. Do you agree? If so, then again with the negation, you lose 1 bet instead of 3 bets 9/73 of the time and breakeven the rest of the time.

If you think he'll check behind trips, you're still not good often enough to make a bet or check-raise profitable, since you stand to lose that bet or 2 bets more than half the time.

Do you agree with this list?

There is a chance he was overplaying an off-suit big ace, but I didn't deem it very likely so I left it out of consideration.

[Mempho]

Good response. I see your point there. I would have to think that you think that the BB is capable of making this play. In other words, if he was weak-tight, you're not going to 3-bet here. If he's got a little play, however, and is capable of restealing or raising an overpair to the middle pair, you 3-bet for those reasons. He has to have A-anything or better (which we don't know, because his hand is random) for your play to be wrong. Let's face it, his flop raise screams, "I want protection."

You also say the UTG limper was pretty bad, meaning that he limps in a lot? Chances are, then, that he doesn't hold an A himself. If he was a low VPIP player, would you not have to be concerned about the bullet up there? You might have to then be concerned in that case about hands that he's trying to get multiway like A /images/graemlins/spade.gifJ /images/graemlins/spade.gif. I realize that the standard play with this hand would be to raise in this spot, but limping also has some merit.

[mach3]

Interesting hand. I think you can narrow his hands down on the turn. It's not likely he is pushing an Ax club draw that hard. My thoughts would have been 33 or a 5. I like the river raise, but would likely fold to a 3 bet.