Very Interesting Promo

[housenuts]

Little more than a month after introducing the "Maui – Jackpot Sit ‘N’ Go" promotion, which challenges customers to try to win five consecutive single table tournaments for a $15,000 grand prize, online poker room, Noble Poker, has upped the ante.

Starting August 1, Noble will begin a new Sit & Go (S&G) challenge, offering up an astounding $1,000,000 to anyone who can win seven $10 S&G’s in a row. Like the Maui promotion, there will be specially designated tables for these tournaments. Any player who accomplishes the feat will be required to e-mail Noble with details of each tournament, and all seven S&G’s must be played within a thirty day period.

In addition to the million dollar grand prize, Noble will also award smaller, yet still sizable, prizes to those who fall just short of the goal. Win six tournaments in a row, and the prize is $75,000. Five and a row earns a cool $25,000. And anyone who places in the top two spots in five consecutive tournaments will win $300.

All of this is on top of the normal prize money for each individual S&G.

could this be done? would it make it worthwhile playing there?

[elcheapo]

wouldn't it be worthwhile to get about 50 people getting paid about 20K - taxes for a weeks work and just dump chips to one guy. Mix in a few losses when he has a huge lead but it seems plausible.

[SuitedSixes]

I only clicked on this link because I thought it said 'porno.'

[benza13]

[ QUOTE ]
I only clicked on this link because I thought it said 'porno.'

[/ QUOTE ]

LMAO

As was discussed for the previous promo, it would be extremely difficult for anyone to win 5 in a row at any level. 7 seems about impossible, but hey, if people want to try. The $300 for finishing top 2 in 5 sounds good though.

[FieryJustice]

I am strongly considering giving it a run one night when the cards arent falling right for me on party.

[ewing55]

[ QUOTE ]
I only clicked on this link because I thought it said 'porno.'

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too, but a million dollars will do it for me. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

--------------Jeff

[dmmikkel]

This is easy money if you do the following.

Gather about 50-60 friends and play 7 in a row. Then u stage it in a way that one person wins them all. The easy part is actually winning 7 in a row, the hard part would be to cover it up and make it look real.

[Needle77]

[ QUOTE ]
Me too, but a million dollars will do it for me. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif


[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah..I'd take a run at that, i mean, million dollars is an ass of money for a few days of good cards and good plays.

[runner4life7]

The problem is this, even with a 14% 1st place rate you are about a 1 in a million (not exaggerating) chance to win 7 in a row. Thats why they can do this.

[adanthar]

25K for 5 in a row???

Tempting. Very, very tempting. I might even spend August trying.

edit: on second thought, probably not worth it with that 3 table rule and crappy software, but I bet some current Party $10 players here could crush this.

[MSUcougar]

I don't think I've ever gotten more than 3 1sts in a row.

Honestly I don't think you could win 7 in a row even if you got AA every other hand. It only takes one suckout.

[tshort]

I've won 5 $33s in a row. With a 15% 1st place chance the odds would be about 1 in 13K to win 5 in a row.

+EV

[mistaken]

Not calling you a liar, but I demand a recount!

[tshort]

Lol. When it happened, I thought I had only won 4. I won the set of 4 I played, but when I entered my results into my spreadsheet I realized I had won the last tourney I played the previous day.

[grapes]

Assume you're exactly average in every tournament you enter, so exactly 10% chance of first each and every time. You'd win seven in a row 1 time in 10,000,000.

A million-dollar prize for hitting a 1/10,000,000 shot means that your EV from this promotion would be 10 cents per entry, on average. From the site's perspective, it costs them $1 in EV for each 1TT. If we're talking $10+1 tournaments, they are giving up $1 of their $10 drop to the promo pool. This assumes all 10 players have an equal shot to win, which of course isn't realistic, and the actual numbers would probably be significantly different.

Anyway, the $75,000 for 6 in a row is literally 1 in a million for our extremely average player. EV = $0.0675.
Six cents.

The $25,000 for 5 in a row is actually the most valuable. 1/100,000 shot, so it's worth $0.225.

So, total EV for the 3 prizes is $0.3925, 39 cents - again, for the average player. If we are talking $10+1, that's a pretty good deal - 40% of your rake back, in theory.

For a top player, who wins 15% of the time, the numbers should be a lot higher...

5 in a row = 1/13000 -- $25,000 -- $1.92 EV
6 in a row = 1/88000 -- $75,000 -- $0.85 EV
7 in a row = 1/585000 -- $1,000,000 -- $1.71 EV

Close to +$4.50 in EV, wow.

It would start going up fast after that. A player who wins 20% would make about +$26 EV per tournament, long-term, just from the promo.

I'd have to be pretty sure the site is totally honest and can afford to (and would actually) make a million dollar payout before I spent serious effort going for it. And read all the fine print.

You can bet that they'll be reviewing the play very closely if someone does win a big prize, to check for any collusion or manipulation - which is easy to spot, for any serious collusion, especially among more than 2 players. They'd be able to see all the hole cards, IP addresses, timing of actions, etc. It would be very hard to engineer the outcome and make it look natural, even if you controlled all 10 players, for even 1 tournament.

Ok, one last stat, then I'll shut up /images/graemlins/smile.gif :
Assuming you win 15% of your tournaments, each tournament lasts an hour, and you play 24/7 forever with no breaks, you'd hit the million once every 67 years.

The EV is good, but you'll probably never win anything. The situation is a lot like the progressive casino jackpots, where the machines are usually -EV, very occasionally +EV, and it never matters either way for almost anyone.

It'd be fun though, if you're going to play anyway. I'd assume it'd make the games a little juicier - certainly can't hurt.

What level tournaments does this apply to, $10+1 only? Is there any extra fee?

[grapes]

Thinking about it a little more, I'm surprised other sites haven't offered this before, at least for smaller prizes. I'd guess it would draw a lot of fish, which would eventually draw the better players.

Kinda like how Party got where they are despite having crappy software and customer service.