Live 88 river decision

[sweetjazz]

I'm playing at a great 4/8 table at Foxwoods this Fourth of July. Two people are seeing every flop no matter how many bets it is to them (including calling a capped pot from the SB in one instance). Villain in this hand is at least reasonably decent as a player, as he knows which starting hands to play, what to raise, and how to read the flop at a level that is at least decent. He's pretty aggressive against the passive players at the table. I don't get the sense that he can release a big hand, but I'm not sure whether he'll overplay his marginal hands or turn into a calling station with them. Lastly, he's also a complete jerk and very annoying (a judgment I put on very few people I have just met), so he will henceforth be referred to as Spazzy McTool (which is the name I dubbed for him during my lunch break).

I pick up 88 UTG+2. One limper before me, I limp, another limper (saw every flop), Spazzy raises in late middle position, button calls too cold (saw every flop), big blind calls, first limper calls, I call, other limper calls. Six to the flop with 12 SB in the pot.

Flop is Ad Js 8d. Checked to Spazzy who bets, all call to me, and I raise, the limper to my right folds, Spazzy 3-bets, the button folds, big blind calls, early limper folds, and I call. Three to the turn with 23 SB in the pot.

Turn is the Qc. I check, Spazzy bets, big blind calls, I raise, Spazzy calls, big blind folds. Two to the river with 16.5 BB in the pot.

River is the Ac.

Should I bet/call, bet/fold, or check/call? Commentary on other streets is also welcome.

[jba]

if

[ QUOTE ]
.. I'm not sure whether he'll overplay his marginal hands

[/ QUOTE ]

then bet/fold seems really bad. I would say bet/call.

I would also cap the flop and lead out.

[slavic]

Bet and consider a 3 bet, especially if you can comfortably lay down to a 4 bet. He really hasn't shown more strength than top pair here, though you would have more knowledge if you would have put in the 4th bet on the flop and lead the turn. I think continuing to push from the flop on probably makes you an extra ~1.5 BB's versus your plan.

In reality when I get a set beat, or even a small house, I'm not too concerned that it costs quite a bit. I get more upset if I didn't charge my oponent the absolute max I could to catch up. As long as they pay full price I'll come out ahead in the long run.

[mantasm]

I can't see how you could consider folding. If he has somethign like AK, AT, A9 he's probably going to raise the river. I guess bet call if you think he won't put that many bets in if he's behind. But i have to think you're still good most of the time even if he raises because i think he'd 3bet the turn with two pair.

[sweetjazz]

I agree that capping the flop and leading out the turn is probably best. I get tempted to try to get another check-raise in when the bet is doubled on the turn, but I think this is not a good play. I'd have felt real dumb if villain had Kd Qd and the turn got checked through.

Do people really think AT and A9 are likely hands for villain? I think ATs is possible, and maybe A9s or ATo but I doubt these latter two hands are likely (and so their likelihood should be significantly diminished than what mathematical combinations would suggest).

[sweetjazz]

Results: Villain showed AQ and MHING.

I agree that I didn't push hard enough on the flop, but I think check-calling the river is right. Villain's most likely hands at that point are AJ, AK, and AQ. Any other hand he has played strangely, as I don't think he'd slow down on the turn with a higher set and I think AT and A9 are a reach. I'm definitely going to pay two bets to AQ or AJ, while I probably get 1 bet from AK whether I bet out or check to him.