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View Full Version : TPTK, safe flop but pusher and caller infront


HighestCard
07-05-2005, 01:44 PM
Pokerroom 10+1, level II blinds, Yum man has made some crazy bets to get to his chip lead. Skinhead seems like a solid player

Seat 1: HERO [KH,AC] ($1,205 in chips)
Seat 2: Sn4ke11 ($867 in chips)
Seat 4: Serioussnaps ($2,791 in chips)
Seat 6: skinhead308 ($1,475 in chips)
Seat 7: marcmojo ($2,488 in chips)
Seat 8: Yum Man ($3,371 in chips)
Seat 9: danne32 ($1,378 in chips)
Seat 10: sic36nat ($1,425 in chips)


ANTES/BLINDS
Sn4ke11 posts blind ($15), Serioussnaps posts blind ($30).

PRE-FLOP
skinhead308 bets $125, marcmojo folds, Yum Man calls $125, danne32 folds, sic36nat folds, HERO calls $125, Sn4ke11 folds, Serioussnaps folds.

FLOP
skinhead308 bets $1,350 and is all-in, Yum Man calls $1,350, [b]HERO???...


Thanks in advance..

mlagoo
07-05-2005, 01:58 PM
i probably push preflop, but i'm a bit laggy.

this is tough on the flop. i can't see him making this bet with a made hand (KK, TT). So I think you have the bettor beat. As for the caller... that's really tough. He could have made a set, or he could have KQ.

I think I find a fold.... It's difficult though.

schwza
07-05-2005, 01:59 PM
i'd call. here's a rough range for utg: 99+, AJ+, KQ. you're only behind AA, KK, and TT, which is only 9 hands total. AQ alone represents 12 hands, and any other hand in the raising range may push here, especially with the gutshot to go along with Ax.

yum's call is a little scary, but yum is likely reraising AA/KK pre-flop. that leaves only TT (which may reraise) and 33 (which may fold). so there aren't a lot of reasonable hands for him to have that are ahead of you. and depending on how loose he is pre-flop, he could have a lot of KJ-type hands. plus you're getting a little discount in the pot b/c you're short.

schwza
07-05-2005, 02:00 PM
[ QUOTE ]
i probably push preflop, but i'm a bit laggy.

this is tough on the flop. i can't see him making this bet with a made hand (KK, TT). So I think you have the bettor beat. As for the caller... that's really tough. He could have made a set, or he could have KQ.

I think I find a fold.... It's difficult though.

[/ QUOTE ]

oh yeah, i push pre-flop.

kyro
07-05-2005, 02:01 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Skinhead seems like a solid player

HERO???...



[/ QUOTE ]

2+2 = ??

It's not worth it here IMO.

schwza
07-05-2005, 02:02 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Skinhead seems like a solid player

HERO???...



[/ QUOTE ]

2+2 = ??

It's not worth it here IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

2+2 = big overbet with AA? doesn't so solid to me. what do you think he could have?

PapiChulo503
07-05-2005, 02:14 PM
Your probably up against a SET Or pocket rockets from one of these guys. Its still early enough in the tourney that you are not FORCED to make a tough call here. The risk vs reward ratio is not that good because IF you do have the best hand and triple up you are still not guaranteed a win do to the number of players left. Winning gives you an edge but losing means your OUT.

kyro
07-05-2005, 02:14 PM
[ QUOTE ]
i'd call. here's a rough range for utg: 99+, AJ+, KQ. you're only behind AA, KK, and TT, which is only 9 hands total. AQ alone represents 12 hands, and any other hand in the raising range may push here, especially with the gutshot to go along with Ax.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know of any solid player who pushes AQo here against someone like yum (given OP's description). The only hands I can see solid player pushing into yum like this are hands that beat you.

schwza
07-05-2005, 02:30 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i'd call. here's a rough range for utg: 99+, AJ+, KQ. you're only behind AA, KK, and TT, which is only 9 hands total. AQ alone represents 12 hands, and any other hand in the raising range may push here, especially with the gutshot to go along with Ax.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know of any solid player who pushes AQo here against someone like yum (given OP's description). The only hands I can see solid player pushing into yum like this are hands that beat you.

[/ QUOTE ]

suppose yum had folded. would you fold?

kyro
07-05-2005, 02:35 PM
I'm not worried about yum, so yes.

nokona13
07-05-2005, 02:40 PM
If skinhead really is solid, he's probably also noticed that yum is an idiot. Idiots who acquire big stacks are usually the kind of players who will convince themselves a big overbet just HAS to be a bluff because they have TPGK or something. If I were skinhead and I had TT, KK, or AA, I'd strongly consider making this same bet. I'm also slightly worried that yum has 33 or KTs. Mostly I'm folding because I think I'm beat or outdrawn more than 2/3 by one of them...

schwza
07-05-2005, 02:52 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not worried about yum, so yes.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think you're putting way too much stock in OP's read of "solid." you think utg check-folds if he has QQ/AQ/KQ?

tminus
07-05-2005, 02:54 PM
Interestng hand...
My play depends on what you mean by "solid", if he's been tight aggressive then Im folding. What would a guy like that open-raise 4BB from early position with? AA, KK, or maybe TT...Im wondering whether Id call his preflop raise in the first place with AKo

you still only have TPTK and the blinds are really low, Id wait for a better place to gamble than here

HighestCard
07-05-2005, 02:54 PM
Well, getting mixed response is good sign I guess, showing it was a hard decision, but anyway I should have listened to the little voice in my head called schwza..

[ QUOTE ]
and depending on how loose [Yum Man] is pre-flop, he could have a lot of KJ-type hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Skinhead = JJ
Yum Man = K J off suit

AK would of ended up holding up...

kyro
07-05-2005, 03:07 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not worried about yum, so yes.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think you're putting way too much stock in OP's read of "solid." you think utg check-folds if he has QQ/AQ/KQ?

[/ QUOTE ]

QQ - Depends. He might toss a bet out there. He might check and see what happens. He does not bet 4 times the pot all-in with two people left to act. That's suicidal.

AQ - Yes. I would think the majority of players would.

KQ - No. This is the one hand I can conceive villain having that you beat.

kyro
07-05-2005, 03:12 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Well, getting mixed response is good sign I guess, showing it was a hard decision, but anyway I should have listened to the little voice in my head called schwza..

[ QUOTE ]
and depending on how loose [Yum Man] is pre-flop, he could have a lot of KJ-type hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Skinhead = JJ
Yum Man = K J off suit

AK would of ended up holding up...

[/ QUOTE ]

1) You lose this hand >70% of the time IMO.

2) My answer changes if my read on skinhead is "complete idiot who overbets pots with marginal hands"

adanthar
07-05-2005, 03:14 PM
[ QUOTE ]
2) My answer changes if my read on skinhead is "complete idiot who overbets pots with marginal hands"

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
10+1

[/ QUOTE ]

I call.

kyro
07-05-2005, 03:16 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
2) My answer changes if my read on skinhead is "complete idiot who overbets pots with marginal hands"

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
10+1

[/ QUOTE ]

I call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Barring reads, me too. But OP specifically told us skinhead is solid. There ARE decent players at the 11s

adanthar
07-05-2005, 03:19 PM
The odds of you running into one of the six of those are less than the odds of this particular one just not having had the time to do anything stupid yet.

Besides, he bet 1400 into a pot of 400. He's a mackerel.

kyro
07-05-2005, 03:24 PM
[ QUOTE ]


Besides, he bet 1400 into a pot of 400. He's a mackerel.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously.

schwza
07-05-2005, 03:26 PM
[ QUOTE ]
The odds of you running into one of the six of those are less than the odds of this particular one just not having had the time to do anything stupid yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

very well said. we've only played ~15 hands, and even if utg has folded every hand pre-flop i'm calling the flop push.

adanthar
07-05-2005, 03:27 PM
Right. So, he can have exactly AA and be one specific kind of mackerel, or he can be a mackerel with a dozen other hands that are moronic to push, too.