easy river bet?

[DireWolf]

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls.

Flop: (7.40 SB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls.

Turn: (4.70 BB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls.

River: (6.70 BB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
CO checks, Hero ???.

Final Pot: 6.70 BB

[wheelz]

No, check. No worse hand is calling, no better hand is folding.

[surfdoc]

Very difficult for me to think of a hand that he will call with here that you beat with the exception of 22-55 (if he is awful). You will chop a lot and he may have you beat as well. Check it down.

[DireWolf]

what hands can you put villan on?

[surfdoc]

[ QUOTE ]
what hands can you put villan on?

[/ QUOTE ]

The range is so wide it is not worth typing out. Any pair, any A, etc. Is he reasonable or crazy?

[Fiddler]

[ QUOTE ]
what hands can you put villan on?

[/ QUOTE ]

He can probably have a lot of stuff... but how much of that stuff will he call a river bet with and, at best, not split the pot with?

[DireWolf]

he was pretty reasonable.

i think with a seven or a pair above sevens he either bets the flop or check-raises the flop.
im not that worried about sixes, but if he has A6 or the like, i think he shows more strenght before the river.
with a queen i do not think he would check call the turn. and if he did, i think there is a reasonable chance he would lead the river.

Therefore i think he has an Ace or a pair lower than 6 the vast majority of the time. I really think im splitting or ahead more than behind here.

I want the bet to fold other aces here, and i really don't think im beat often enough here to warrent a check.

[sy_or_bust]

You aren't thinking the right way. You should only care about how often you are ahead, when called. The answer is typically never.

Villain's most likely range of calling hands are pairs and aces. If you can fold an ace with a bet, it is profitable, but few players, if any, will fold an ace here. Certainly not a loose passive. Your bet has negative expectation, unless you have a monster read (i.e. you know Villain always holds an ace at best, or is capable of calling down king high, or will donkcall with 44). In the absence of a rare read, checking is clearly best.

You don't want to bet into a Villain with a range of aces, 22-99, and busted draws. It doesn't matter that you are ahead sometimes, because you gain nothing with a bet that a check won't give. This is pretty basic river play.

[surfdoc]

While I agree with you analysis of his range of hands given his play, you need to specifically look at his likelihood of calling with a hand you beat as I and others have already mentioned. That is the only reason to value bet this river. Is there value there? If he reasonable, I don't think he folds an A and I can't see him paying off with an underpair or KJ or whatever. There is also the rare possibility that he has a slowplayed monster and will CR the river or even bluff raise the river with A high (that is a pretty sweet move if you can be pushed off an A).

[DMBFan23]

[ QUOTE ]
I want the bet to fold other aces here

[/ QUOTE ]

good point, but I usually need a read to assume he'll lay down A high here. If we know he's calling with A high, you can admit we don't gain much by betting, yeah?