ugly combo draw hand

[schwza]

first hand of a 33.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP3 (t800)
CO (t800)
Hero (t800)
SB (t800)
BB (t800)
UTG (t800)
UTG+1 (t800)
UTG+2 (t800)
MP1 (t800)
MP2 (t800)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls t15, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Hero calls t15, SB completes, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t30</font>, UTG+2 calls t15, Hero calls t15, SB folds.

Flop: (t105) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets t50</font>, UTG+2 calls t50, Hero calls t50.

Turn: (t255) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets t250</font>, UTG+2 folds, Hero??

[Unarmed]

I would have potted the flop, mostly because a &lt; half pot bet multiway generally means Villain has whiffed. (from my experience, we've had this discussion before) Given you called multiway you're announcing that you don't have a hand. (as did UTG) BB either has a monster or has recognized this and is betting with nothing. Unfortunately, you have no hand so you really have no business trying to figure out which one it is.

[EverettKings]

Let it go.

You can probably get another 250 out of him on the river if you make your hand, maybe all of it if your gutshot hits. Less if it's like the K/images/graemlins/spade.gif and he has TTish. Assuming you get 250, you're getting 3:1 effective odds on a 3:1 shot (12 outs, maybe can count aces). So three times you have an annoyingly short 470 stack, and once you have 1400. Not only can you find better spots for your money, but I don't like that distribution of results at all.

Kings

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
I would have potted the flop, mostly because a &lt; half pot bet multiway generally means Villain has whiffed. (from my experience, we've had this discussion before) Given you called multiway you're announcing that you don't have a hand. (as did UTG) BB either has a monster or has recognized this and is betting with nothing. Unfortunately, you have no hand so you really have no business trying to figure out which one it is.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't like raising the flop. if utg+2 has a 3, there is a 90+% chance he's smooth-calling, especially if he's loose enough to be in the pot with a 3 (yes, even with a flush draw out). if BB has a 3 (unlikely), then he'll probably reraise and i lose my chance to stack him. i don't think either player folds a 7. just calling the flop gives me a chance to keep the pot small and take a cheap look and try to bust someone.

the turn is much dicier. i called, but i don't know if it was the right play. there are 9 spades, 6 straight cards, and 3 aces that help my hand. it's sort of unclear how to figure for implied odds - i might river a 2 and stack him, or i might river a 2 and go broke against 77. if i have 15 outs then i'm 1/3 and i have express odds to call.

one problem is that if a spade hits, he should be able to fold a hand like 99 as there would then be pretty much he could beat (except maybe A7), and a 6 would put 3467 on the board, which he might also get away from. given that he raised pre-flop, i think it's pretty unlikely he has a 3, so i think the only time my flush/straight outs are not good are when he has 77 or something like TT and the T /images/graemlins/spade.gif hits. it's definitely close, and the issue of not wanting to risk going broke early is in there, but i think calling is marginally correct.

here's the rest of the hand. anyone make a thin value bet at the end?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP3 (t800)
CO (t800)
Hero (t800)
SB (t800)
BB (t800)
UTG (t800)
UTG+1 (t800)
UTG+2 (t800)
MP1 (t800)
MP2 (t800)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls t15, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Hero calls t15, SB completes, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t30</font>, UTG+2 calls t15, Hero calls t15, SB folds.

Flop: (t105) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets t50</font>, UTG+2 calls t50, Hero calls t50.

Turn: (t255) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets t250</font>, UTG+2 folds, Hero calls t250.

River: (t755) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: t755

[EverettKings]

God I can't believe you checked the river behind!!!

What the hell did you have him on? It's exceedingly unlikely that he has a 4 or 3 or 77 (and if you thought he had 77 then you shouldn't have called the turn). You have nothing more to be afraid of here than on the turn, so make a value bet man! To me this is like checking the nuts behind on the river. Fire 250, 99 is still calling.

In my original post I didn't realize that you were double gutted with the flush draw, so now the turn call is fine. But you have GOT to bet the river if you get there. Got to. Gotta gotta.

Kings

[Unarmed]

Hi schwza,

I'm really not concerned that either of these guys has a three. Sure, its possible UTG+2 may have one of the two A3s hands out there, but if he does, (or 34s 32s, whatever) his starting hand range is so ridiculously wide that its just statistically unlikely he would have either of the other 3s. Similarly, if he somehow ended up with a 3 here and smooth called the flop, he's probably the type of player that will smooth call the flop with whatever hand he called with pre-flop. Basically, he CAN have a 3, he can also have AA, I'm just not real worried about either.

I prefer raising because neither of these clowns have shown much interest in the pot, so I'll take it down a good percentage of the time right there. If I don't take it down in on the flop and hit my spade on the turn, my implied odds are great. If I whiff the turn, I probably get to see a free river.

Yes, I could get blown off the flop by a re-raise. This is the main argument for not raising, and its quite valid. I just don't see tha sort of situation playing out all that often, and I raise here often with a wide range of garbage.

And yes, I would bet the river. You have shown absolutely no aggression thus far in the hand so he won't be looking to C/R you here a good enough % of the time to make checking behind the correct play.

[Wes ManTooth]

[ QUOTE ]
God I can't believe you checked the river behind!!!

What the hell did you have him on? It's exceedingly unlikely that he has a 4 or 3 or 77 (and if you thought he had 77 then you shouldn't have called the turn). You have nothing more to be afraid of here than on the turn, so make a value bet man! To me this is like checking the nuts behind on the river. Fire 250, 99 is still calling.

In my original post I didn't realize that you were double gutted with the flush draw, so now the turn call is fine. But you have GOT to bet the river if you get there. Got to. Gotta gotta.

Kings

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, BB raised preflop... you can't put him on a full house even with this board... you should have bet the river.

[adanthar]

I think you have to fold the turn. Never mind the marginal express odds, it's over 1/3 of your stack.

The river's a clear value bet, maybe even a push (because some people will call AK here.)

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you have to fold the turn. Never mind the marginal express odds, it's over 1/3 of your stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, the fact that it's 1/3 doesn't automatically make it a fold. If he were even money to get there, for example, he'd have to call. You're right though that if it's marginal you're better off not risking 1/3 of your stack, and that was my original thought. But look how many freaking outs he has! 9flush + 6straight = 15 clean outs, where he probably can get 250 from the 9 flush outs and all 720 from the 6 straight outs, plus 3 ace outs that are more than likely good and he can probably also get another 200 from. That makes a whopping 18 outs with a likely 250+ chip payoff, so 3+:1 odds on a 1.5:1 shot?? His hand is just so much better than I originally thought.

Kings

[adanthar]

Unless you put Villain on AK, Hero certainly doesn't have 15 clean outs. He most often has 14; the other one gets him stacked when Hero hits a flush and Villain rivers a boat.

When he does have 15 outs, he's not getting paid and will lose another half of his stack when an ace rivers. When he has all 18, 3 of those are not paying off most of the time, either.

I'd call 150 here but not 250.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
He most often has 14; the other one gets him stacked when Hero hits a flush and Villain rivers a boat.


[/ QUOTE ]

1/2 the time villain holds a spade with his pocket pair, so it's just 14 outs.

[ QUOTE ]
When he does have 15 outs, he's not getting paid and will lose another half of his stack when an ace rivers.

[/ QUOTE ]

are you talking about villain holding Ax? i don't think that's likely, unless it's A7.

[ QUOTE ]
When he has all 18, 3 of those are not paying off most of the time, either.


[/ QUOTE ]

that's true, but if i have 18 outs then having low implied odds on 3 of them is not a deal breaker.

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
Unless you put Villain on AK,


[/ QUOTE ]
I have him on a pocket pair bigger than 77, with a small chance of AK.
[ QUOTE ]
Hero certainly doesn't have 15 clean outs. He most often has 14; the other one gets him stacked when Hero hits a flush and Villain rivers a boat.


[/ QUOTE ]
My apologies. Wasn't concerned with one out. If villain has a pocket pair, then either he has a spade and hero has 14 outs, or he doesnt and hero has 14 and one that stacks him. I don't think it's a big concern.
[ QUOTE ]

When he does have 15 outs, he's not getting paid and will lose another half of his stack when an ace rivers. When he has all 18, 3 of those are not paying off most of the time, either.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't know how you can say that a medium pair here will not pay off a gutshot that fills (6 outs), and will not call a small value bet when a spade falls (8-9 outs). If an ace falls and villain bets, hero can muck. If an ace falls and villain checks, hero can bet 200 for value (unlikely to see a checkraise here). Hero should not lose half of his stack when he hits his ace and is dominated.

Kings

[adanthar]

The spade boating V up is a big concern because it's the reverse implied odds equivalent of 2 or 3 clean outs.

You have 18 outs vs. 99 and 15 against AK. Reread the last line again. (BTW, if V bets 100-200 on the river when an ace hits folding is a crime.)

[schwza]

thanks for comments everyone.

i checked behind on the river and was shown the surprising K /images/graemlins/spade.gifT /images/graemlins/spade.gif, and i kicked myself for missing a good chance for a value bet.

[11t]

I'd muck it. You aren't getting the correct odds and if you do hit you might not get paid off.

[11t]

I think you have to value bet the river if you are willing to call the turn, the chances of him having a boat are pretty much nil.

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
The spade boating V up is a big concern because it's the reverse implied odds equivalent of 2 or 3 clean outs.

[/ QUOTE ]
But this possibility only exists half the time. Hero has 14 clean outs one half, and 14 with one "stack" card the other half. Counting that stack card as -2 outs, half the time, makes -1 out so we have 13, if against a pocket pair. Plus 3 ace outs that will be good if he's pocketed, making it 16. I mean it's a little closer, but it still looks like a fairly clear call to me. If against AK then we have about the same (15 plus our five might win us a checked showdown).

And yes if he bets 100 to 200 on the river and you hit your ace you must call. But your ace is still good most of those times, and most times you hit your ace he will check-call a smallish bet. Counting an ace as two outs even, we have an adjusted 13+2 = 15 outs considering reverse implied odds. If we were scraping together 10 or 12 outs then I could see a fold, but 15 is too many to let go.

Kings