Heads up with rags Party SNG

[mackthefork]

Hi all

Its been a while since I have played any SNGS I was on Party last night and decided to play one before bed.

Situation was we were down to the last 2 players, I had ~3800 villian had ~4200, he was folding far too much all the way through the tourney, and especially heads up and 3 handed.

Its my BB and its 250/500, he completes I check with 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, the flop comes Q64 rainbow, and I push for 3300, my read is he folds if he doesn't have a pair or better. Any thoughts appreciated.

Thanks and regards Mack

[chisness]

if he's folding too much i think this is a dumb risk

a min bet will probably get him to fold just as easily

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
if he's folding too much i think this is a dumb risk

a min bet will probably get him to fold just as easily

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats a quick answer, I don't know if he would have gone for that, he was tight but not stupid.

I thought I had enough equity to push, I did some workings after the event, based on him having a pair or better 30% of the time on this board.

70% he folds I win 1,000 x 70 = 70,000

of the remaining 30% I have 7 outs ~60% of the time and 4 outs ~40% of the time.

4,300 x 25 x 0.60 = 64,500 x 3/10 = 19,350
3,300 x 75 x 0.60 = (148,500) x 3/10 = (44,550)
4,300 x 15 x 0.40 = 25,800 x 3/10 = 7,740
3,300 x 85 x 0.40 = (112,200) x 3/10 = (33,660)

Total over 100 hands (70,000+19,350+7,740)-(44,550+33,660) = 18,880/100 = 188.8 chips per hand.

That's fairly close but how much of an edge do I need to push in this spot, I mean we are heads up and no matter how bad he is I can't win all the time.

Regards Mack

[Ixnert]

You don't mention what buy-in this is at, but at the lower buyins, I push preflop a large percentage of the time when in the BB and SB completes (at least at that blind level). You're at least 80% likely to induce a fold there, in my experience. (In other words, higher chance of getting a fold there than on the flop.)

Having not done that, I don't mind the postflop push, but if the opponent is really playing as tight as you describe, you'll probably have better opportunities. I think I'd just check/fold and get it back over the next couple hands.

[Unarmed]

What would you have bet with 64o?
Bet that amount.

Anyway, I like C/Ring all-in waaaaay more than open pushing, not that I'd do that either. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[EverettKings]

I think this is a good spot for some advertising. Check/fold unless you fill your gutshot, that way when you fire at him in the upcoming hands you'll get some respect.

You can find much safer spots to push over this pushover.

Kings

[Phil Van Sexton]

If you are willing to do this, you should have just pushed preflop.

That being said, pushing the flop was probably fine against a tight player. I might've checked and re-evaluated on the turn, it depends.

[mackthefork]

I'll bump this once so I can get ripped on some more for my fishy plays. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Any comment appreciated.

Best regards Mack

[junkmail3]

Eh, I don't like it. You could end the tournament if he has a Q, and going by what you said, you're dominating the game.

In a situation like this, I would very quickly let a hand go that doesn't hit, and continue to push my better hands, and slowly take his money in situations where, if he calls, I at least have a good shot at still winning.