Good Or Bad Idea???

[PokerProdigy]

First, I would like to say that I am NOT trying to get into the "extrememly silly subject of money management" debate. Rather, I am wondering if this bankroll idea (for SNG's) will give me a pretty good chance (maybe 90% or better) of NOT going broke in the near future, assuming that I am a winning player. Basically, I don't want to have a really high risk at going broke because I am a broke college student, but I also want to make a decent amount of money because I am a broke college student /images/graemlins/smirk.gif. My idea is that I will jump up to the next limit whenever I have 15 buy-ins for that limit and then I will drop back down if I drop like 5-7 of them. Within the past week I have been playing the $10+1 sng's at party and have took two (unsuccesful) shots at the $20+2 using this strategy. Basically, I am wondering if a 15 buy-in bankroll is big enough AS LONG AS I am willing to drop back down whenever my "shot" is unsuccesful at the next level?

[lastchance]

15 Buy-in's is nowhere near enough if you want to have a stable level. 30 buy-in's dropping down when you only have 15 buy-in's sounds a lot bettter.

[PokerProdigy]

[ QUOTE ]
15 Buy-in's is nowhere near enough if you want to have a stable level. 30 buy-in's dropping down when you only have 15 buy-in's sounds a lot bettter.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was under the impression that sng's have VERY low variance and that 20-30 buy-ins is definitely enough. Therefore, I was thinking that 15 would be enough as long as I "aggressively" moved up and down in limits.

By the way, I am NOT trying to say that I am doing the right thing here, but rather just trying to justify my logic. So if you still think what I am doing is pretty risky, then by all means let me know, and please explain/justify your answer a little bit more.

[pergesu]

It's not hard to drop 15 buyins if you're playing multiple tables. I had two 9-game OTM streaks today. That'd really suck if I only had 15 buyins. If you're interested in moving up limits pretty quickly while maintaining a large enough roll to avoid busting, check out the rolling bankroll (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=2236525&page=0&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1)

[Big Limpin']

if you are asking this question....and honestly believe that you have a "90% chance of not going broke"...then i think you are under some the wrong impression about what "low variance" is.
You should ask youself if you will make any cashouts.
You will never make real money unless you can allow your roll to grow to 1k, moving up when YOU HAVE LEARNED TO PLAY A LEVEL BETTER.
I fear you dont grasp how unlikely it is that you will progress levels with this strategy if you make any cahouts in the near future. I say this because i too used to be a broke college student, who wanted to make money because i was a broke college student, and didnt want to lose money because i was i abroke college student.

But, whatever "system" you talk youself into, i wish you success. Good Luck.

[treeofwisdom7]

if your broke then you should play your BR safe. build it up to 50 buy ins b4 you do anything else. keep your BR at 50 buys ins at the 11's till you have 1k at the 20s. you can make more than 800$ a month at the 11's if your a winning player and i think thats good enuf for you. A big bankroll is a good idea for many reasons including psychological ones.

BUild a Roll first.

[adanthar]

SNG's have 'low' variance compared to ring games, but 'super goddamn high' variance compared to anything other than gambling.

Having said that: you can probably (80-90%) get away with this at the 10's if you are more than just a winning player (ie, you have to be good and play good poker regardless of bankroll), but definitely won't at the 30's and higher.

[tminus]

yeah, and i learned this the hard way....
ive considered myself a "winning player" too but my recent performance is lose 10, then win 1, and then lose 10.

that would punch a hole in 15 buyins so i budget for 30