last one.... sucker straight...

[kurto]

Pokerstars $50 NL

Is this right?

All deep stacks. Villain (button) has been pretty straightforward.
4 limps to hero on cutoff who limps with 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif9 /images/graemlins/club.gif
button raises to $2. 1 caller. hero calls.

(~$8) FLOP 10 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/club.gif Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif

checks to hero... hero bets $6. Button Raises to $12, limper calls... Hero folds?

Good laydown?

[kurto]

Bump-- A little yeah or nay will suffice. Would anyone play this any differently?

[djoyce003]

I don't see much wrong with folding, the pot is big, you are going to have to call some huge bets with the potential wrong end of the straight.

[unlucky513]

any reads on button? what has he been raising with?

i don't know if i fold this here... i think you can rule out K9. however, AK, AQ, QQ, KK, AA are possible. tough hand.

edit, after thinking about it i'm more than likely calling here. there is one hand that beats you, (hoping he's not a total donk w/ K9) and so many hands you beat. i'd call and pray the board doesnt pair.

[PinkSteel]

Nooooooooo....

There is only one hand beating us (discounting K9), and a boatload with which he could take this line that are behind: AQ, AJ, AA-TT....

How deep is deep? Strongly consider pushing. While we are very, very likely ahead, we don't want to play OOP with a broadway-drawy board. With two opponents in, any K or A falling would really suck.

[djoyce003]

stacks are deep. Do you really want to push here when you could very likely have 0% chance of winning this pot? If the Button raise doesn't scare the hell out of you, the flat call from the other player ought to. I wouldn't be surprised if hero is against a made broadway straight and a set from someone else. Best case scenario two people are drawing extremely live against him....I don't see the reason to get involved with deep stacks in a huge pot with the ass end of a straight.

[PinkSteel]

After limper calls, there is ~$38 in the pot. You would not at least call the flop raise for $6, getting better than 6:1, with the 2nd nuts?

I play a pretty weak game, but I don't get this. You think it's that likely that the limper limped with AK?

If I were button I would make that preflop raise with a wide variety of hands, especially with lots of limpers and position.

You are ahead of any set at this point, you are only losing to a single reasonably possible holding. You don't need a >50% probability to win this pot against both players; even if both call you need 30% or less (depending on stacks), and you're holding the 2nd nuts (OK, 3rd, but no way do opponents hold K9).

Put yourself in the place of the villains. Would you be in the hand with AQ? AJ? KK? QQ? JJ? TT? Would you call the push with those hands? I would with a set, thinking that even if I were behind I would have outs -- but I would be behind, and I'd rather be holding hero's hand.

[djoyce003]

what are you going to do when he bets $40 on the turn? You can't just think about this immediate call...you have other calls to make on the turn and the river. If he pots the turn you are looking at a $120 call to make on the river. What are you going to do if the board pairs, etc etc. I guess you can call this $6, but again, my question is, what do you do when it's $40 to you on the turn, do you fold then, or do you grit your teeth and call?

[PinkSteel]

[ QUOTE ]
what are you going to do when he bets $40 on the turn? You can't just think about this immediate call...you have other calls to make on the turn and the river. If he pots the turn you are looking at a $120 call to make on the river. What are you going to do if the board pairs, etc etc. I guess you can call this $6, but again, my question is, what do you do when it's $40 to you on the turn, do you fold then, or do you grit your teeth and call?

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't worry about any of those things, because I push on the flop. But barred from pushing, yes, getting >6:1 with a flopped straight I would call and see the turn. Then I'd push the turn on a blank.

Same principal as holding AA preflop, same as holding a poor two pair on the flop: you have a made hand, with few outs, and while you are very likely ahead at that point, others may well have draws to beat you. Your reverse implied odds are substantial. So what do you do? You get your money in with the best of it, right then and there. Push.

Of course that doesn't work if there is a substantial possibility of being behind, but I really think chances of that here are slim. It is very unlikely limper holds AK, and given that the preflop raiser is Button, I think his range of hands is so wide that it is substantially unlikely -- 10% or less? -- that he holds AK too.

[Ghazban]

I don't know why you're advocating a push when you don't even know stack sizes beyond the ambiguous "deep" given by OP. Even without them, folding is terrible. You will see limper with KQ and raiser with AA/KK/AQ/QQ/JJ/TT far too often to assume you're behind on the flop.

[PinkSteel]

I did ask "how deep is deep?" in my first post; obviously if it's 1000xBB the answer changes. But no way am I folding.

If stacks are *extremely* deep, I can imagine calling to see a blank turn. But at, say, 200xBB, I think I still push.

[djoyce003]

I guess the push is determined by what he defines as a "deep stack." But if it is say 4 buy-ins, you are going to risk your whole stack potentially drawing completely dead? I can't think of anything worse than getting all of my money in with zero outs. I think a push is awful because the only hands that call you are the ones that beat you or at the worst are drawing live (sets, etc). Button raised, but he raised after multiple limpers which to me means he has a better than average hand. He didn't make a huge raise which I think he would have made with 10 10 or JJ. I think you can narrow his range of hands down pretty well to KQ, AK, maybe AA or KK although I would have raised more with those personally. We don't really know if hero has any reads or not because he didn't post them. Also SB called the raise so he probably has a better than average hand as well.

Post flop, you've gotta wonder what SB has here, because he checked, then there was a bet, and a raise, then he called. If you want my opinion SB has the nut straight made, and BB has at worst top pair with an OESD that is bigger than yours, and could have just a set or an overpair. Whenever you see a bet, then a raise, then a flat call, how often has that person that flat called had the nuts? In my experience quite often.

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
I did ask "how deep is deep?" in my first post; obviously if it's 1000xBB the answer changes. But no way am I folding.

If stacks are *extremely* deep, I can imagine calling to see a blank turn. But at, say, 200xBB, I think I still push.

[/ QUOTE ]

If stacks are deep enough, reraising without pushing looks better to me than calling.

[TheWorstPlayer]

um...terrible fold? this is closer to a re-raise than a fold, IMO. But I probably call flop, lead turn, call turn raise. Lead river. If he flopped the nuts here, good for him. I think it's much more likely that I'm going to get plenty of action from TT-AA/KQ/AQ. If the board pairs or a A/9 hits, you'll have to re-evaluate.

[kurto]

[ QUOTE ]
I play a pretty weak game, but I don't get this. You think it's that likely that the limper limped with AK?


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm really not worried about the limper. I'm worried about the original raiser.

The original raiser (button) was a very straightforward tight player. I definitely think AK is one of the likeliest hands that he would likely raise preflop.

My thoughts were, if the player had AK... I'm drawing dead and by the river, we're both likely to have all or a substantial amount of our stack in, no?

I'm open to the idea of going further with this hand if people make a compelling argument. My concern is my hand can't get any better and I could already be drawing dead.

There is a reason they call it a 'sucker straight', right?

I don't know... I'll keep reading (haven't made it through all the responses yet.)

[kurto]

We all had slightly over the buy in... so over 100bbs each.

Regarding the original raiser... the person was tight. Wasn't raising a lot. I thought I'd said I hadn't seen the person do anything odd.

When the player raised preflop, I definitely thought the standard 'tighty' range of hands (High Pocket Pair, AK).

Let me offer some other thoughts...

If I had the sucker straight and it was lower... for instance 6-10, I would have felt more comfortable. It was specifically this flop that made me nervous because AK is easily the most common non-pair raising hand. (especially from a tight straight forward player)

With that flop, if the Button had AQ or something, I think he'd be hesistant to reraise me on that board, no?

I don't know... still absorbing everyone's thoughts.

[PinkSteel]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I play a pretty weak game, but I don't get this. You think it's that likely that the limper limped with AK?

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm really not worried about the limper. I'm worried about the original raiser.


[/ QUOTE ]
Agreed, Button is the problem. The question was just meant to eliminate Limper as a concern.

[ QUOTE ]
The original raiser (button) was a very straightforward tight player. I definitely think AK is one of the likeliest hands that he would likely raise preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, if I were button, I would raise AK. But I'm a pretty straightforward tight player, and I'd raise a LOT more than just AK. I'd raise pairs T to A, AK, AQ, AJ, KQs, maybe AT. And a lot of 2+2'ers would raise Axs and SCs to boot. Now, AK has more combinations than the pairs, granted, so it is proportionally more likely, but I think its overall likelihood in the entire range that button could be playing is small.

[ QUOTE ]
My thoughts were, if the player had AK... I'm drawing dead and by the river, we're both likely to have all or a substantial amount of our stack in, no?

[/ QUOTE ]
If you proceed with the hand, and Button has AK, you're cooked, no argument.

Answering whether or not he has AK comes down to a question of reads and probabilities, and if your strong read is that it's a strong chance, you fold. I contend the chance isn't nearly as big as you think, given his other possible holdings. (Specifically, I think it very, very easy that he could min-raise the flop w/ AQ or KQ.) But it's clearly up to your read. If you've seen him almost never raise from the button, maybe his range narrows to AK/AA-QQ, but that would be unbelievably tight, wouldn't it?

If you decide that the chances of Button having AK are relatively small, now you have to answer the question of how to proceed, and this is where your other point comes in: your hand isn't getting any better. You have what you have, which means you face reverse implied odds -- others can draw to beat you.

Hypothetically, if there were zero chance that you were behind -- if no one had AK or K9 -- then pushing would be a very reasonable play, right? You have the best of it, and you're pricing everyone else out of any draws they may have, right? So anyone calling you would be making a mistake to do so, and that's what you want. Whereas the lower you bet, the better odds you offer them.

But you're not absolutely sure you're a winner, so depending on depth of stacks, you must exercise some pot control. A re-raise may give you some good information: if you get popped back, NOW you may well think you really are behind, and maybe you let it go. If you flat call, then you control pot size, but you let others draw for free and you get no more information.

Since you have an opportunity to close the betting, I think a call is not so bad, respect to Ghaz and TWP. I just wouldn't want to face a re-raise; I'd rather just see the turn hoping for a blank. But with about 100xBB stacks, I would push, hope for no AK, and either take it down or force opponents to make a mistake in calling.

[chumsferd]

I think this is a really interesting hand. My gut reaction was that folding is a mistake... but I'm starting to see that I might have been wrong. Depeding on just how tight-straightforward you think he is, Bayes theorem would suggest you are somewhere between 55-65%* to be ahead right now. Your pot equity is going to be between 33-50%* depending on where you sit in that range. Those figures will probably adjust down, since there are like 20 scare cards that could make you fold, even if they don't hit the opponents.

If you could fill in a few gaps it'd be easier to assess. Like:

1) Just how deep is deep?
2) How tight do you think the button is?
3) Do you think the button is positionally sensitive with their raises?
4) What's your read of the limper? Why aren't you concerned about them, do you really think they have zero equity in the pot? otherwise, it matters that they are involved**.

For what it's worth, right now I still hate folding, I really hate calling and I simply loathe raising (if you are really deep). That's why I find this hand so interesting.

* Figures with a pinch of salt because I haven't done this thoroughly... but they are broadly based on the ranges from PinkSteel's last post.

** Both because they will have some equity and also because their hand range will likely interfere with the main villians hand range.