7/5 Baseball 1 Reverse Run lines

[MHoydilla]

I got:
Pitt. -1.5 runs +220 1 unit

PHI @ PIT
Phi opened as a 6/5 fav. in this game at Pitt, K. Wells (Pitt) vrs J Leiber (PHI), Wells has a 2.9 ERA this year at home, including 3 straight home starts with 1 ER or less, Pitt is 3-4 with Wells starting -1.5 runs at home. J Leiber
has a 4.37 road ERA, and Phi is 3-6 +1.5 runs on the road when Leiber starts this year.


I have just started betting reverse runlines at Pinacle and really like the odds on dogs. Im new at it, so I figure I would post my Reverse runline plays for a little while, track'em and see what everyone thinks. I beleive the Reverse Runline can offer better EV bets then normal lines if you like the dog. Anyone hear have any opinions on betting RRL?

[DougOzzzz]

I presented all the math to evaluate the run line compared to the money line in my other post.. Maybe nobody really understood it.

Anyways, I looked at some lines from Pinnacle tonight and calculated the difference in the run line and money line bets. The run lines match up pretty well with my formulas. Since there is slightly more juice on these bets, they are typically slightly worse.

For Pit, however, I calculated that the run line bet is actually a little better than the money line bet. According to my calculations, they should win by 2+ 32.07% of the time (assuming ML is fair), but they only need to win 31.25% to make it a better bet than the ML.

[calling all cars]

I did, Doug. Don't worry, your work is not all in vain...

Seriously, I think the only way to find value with those lines is to play the discrepancies between multiple books. I replied to your other post, Doug, and I think the values in the run lines are pretty much non-existent.

[TheGame1020]

Nice pick! I am from pittsburgh, taking the buccos in any game takes balls LOL. But taking the reverse RL different story. You had the spot, you made the pick, you got paid. Nice work. /images/graemlins/cool.gif