Trips, no kicker caught in a [censored] storm.

[flyingmoose]

***** Hand History for Game 2311447695 *****
NL Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:13660462 Level:1 Blinds(10/15) - Monday, July 04, 23:37:57 EDT 2005
Table Table 14888 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 4: samthekid13 ( $990 )
Seat 6: badboyrobb ( $785 )
Seat 8: rudirudirudi ( $785 )
Seat 9: Artie_Lang ( $685 )
Seat 3: highmoose ( $955 )
Seat 2: DA_Cats ( $860 )
Seat 1: zumba911 ( $760 )
Seat 10: kingaz ( $680 )
Seat 5: coffeymjc ( $700 )
Seat 7: barachus ( $800 )
Trny:13660462 Level:1
Blinds(10/15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to highmoose [ 4h 7s ]
samthekid13 calls [15].
Artie_Lang: nice overbet
coffeymjc calls [15].
badboyrobb calls [15].
barachus calls [15].
rudirudirudi calls [15].
Artie_Lang folds.
kingaz calls [15].
zumba911 calls [15].
DA_Cats calls [5].
highmoose checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 4d, Jd, 4c ]
DA_Cats bets [15].
highmoose raises [125].
samthekid13 folds.
coffeymjc folds.
badboyrobb folds.
barachus folds.
>You have options at Table 13840 Table!.
rudirudirudi calls [125].
>You have options at Table 14887 Table!.
kingaz is all-In [665]
zumba911 folds.
DA_Cats folds.
highmoose...

[Benholio]

Think you need to proofread the converted history, it shows your raise and one call and nothing else.

[flyingmoose]

[ QUOTE ]
Think you need to proofread the converted history, it shows your raise and one call and nothing else.

[/ QUOTE ]

I switched to the hand history.

[RaiNz]

I call this. I think you see AJ here enough of the time for this to be profitable. I think JJ is possible ofcourse, but fairly unlikely as there was no PFR. It would suck to see an A4s, but I think this is a call.

[bkbluedevil]

First off all here are the prophecy numbers so we all know what we are working with.

rudirudirudi has a ITM of 14.2 though 14 games. Total donk. He could be playing Q4 J4 etc. But he is also dumb enough to call here with a flush draw or a jack I'm guessing so his call doesn't really worry me. I seriously wouldn't be suprised if you have him outkciked.

kingaz has an ITM of 25 through 28 games. Again a donk. I would guess the flush draw though I think his range is about the same as the other donks.

I would call. If you lose load up another one. You'll be ahead here more than 1/3 of the time.

[elonkra]

I'm thinking you're too often ahead here to fold. Just a guess.

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
First off all here are the prophecy numbers so we all know what we are working with.

rudirudirudi has a ITM of 14.2 though 14 games. Total donk. He could be playing Q4 J4 etc. But he is also dumb enough to call here with a flush draw or a jack I'm guessing so his call doesn't really worry me. I seriously wouldn't be suprised if you have him outkciked.

kingaz has an ITM of 25 through 28 games. Again a donk. I would guess the flush draw though I think his range is about the same as the other donks.

I would call. If you lose load up another one. You'll be ahead here more than 1/3 of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]


I can't believe you're basing your decision off of 15 and 28 games.

Just FYI, my ITM on one screen name is just over 30% and the other is around 50% . Those stats don't mean anything for such a small amount of tournaments.

[bkbluedevil]

Yea its a small sample size but in addition to the win percentage the small sample size is significant in itself. Most good players play more. Most good players have good ITM percentages. The fact that this guys don't play much and have low win percentages, while it may be coincidental, is the best info I have to work with.

[cha59]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
First off all here are the prophecy numbers so we all know what we are working with.

rudirudirudi has a ITM of 14.2 though 14 games. Total donk. He could be playing Q4 J4 etc. But he is also dumb enough to call here with a flush draw or a jack I'm guessing so his call doesn't really worry me. I seriously wouldn't be suprised if you have him outkciked.

kingaz has an ITM of 25 through 28 games. Again a donk. I would guess the flush draw though I think his range is about the same as the other donks.

I would call. If you lose load up another one. You'll be ahead here more than 1/3 of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]


I can't believe you're basing your decision off of 15 and 28 games.

Just FYI, my ITM on one screen name is just over 30% and the other is around 50% . Those stats don't mean anything for such a small amount of tournaments.

[/ QUOTE ]

My ITM on Poker Prophecy shows 25% when it is actually 39%. I would not put much stock in numbers from such a small sample size from such an inaccurate source.

That being said, I'd push this because you're probably ahead of one guy with a jack and another with something like a flush draw often enough to make the push profitable.

[bkbluedevil]

In deffense of prophecy. I have two different accounts I play on, one has a win percentage of around 44 according to them. The other has one of 44.5. Both have several hundred games on them though. My actual ITM is lower on both I think but their error is more systematic than random.

As I said before, the win percentage is only half of what prophecy gives you. Number of games is also something to look at.