How insane is thiking about folding AQo for 2 more bets pre-flop here?

[Nigel]

Full game. I raise in CO, button 3 bets, SB caps, BB calls 4 cold.

See the flop then fold, or too high a chance of being dominated out the wahzoo here?

Is thinking of letting this go pre-flop just trying to be fancy? Other than trips, the nut flush draw, or the broadway straight I can't think of a flop I'm really going to love here.

Someone straighten me out here please.

Nigel

[Justin A]

Reads?

[Nigel]

None. First orbit. You guys know as much as I know. None of the players screen names were datamined on my last database.

20+ people have viewed this and either are not sure about this one, or think it's so insane that it's not worth commenting on, lol.

One thing I do know, Tommy Angelo would have just folded it pre-flop /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[The Dude]

With no reads, there's no way in hell I'm folding this preflop.

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]
Is thinking of letting this go pre-flop just trying to be fancy? Other than trips, the nut flush draw, or the broadway straight I can't think of a flop I'm really going to love here. \

[/ QUOTE ]

quads would be acceptable.

[Nigel]

[ QUOTE ]
quads would be acceptable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, yeah... make fun of the stupid kid. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Nigel

[Nigel]

Ok, 1 vote for insane. Thank you.

Do you dump KQo here?

[skp]

Just this weekend in the Party 30 game, I raised AQ off UTG only to be 3 bet by dude to my left and then capped by button.

I mucked.

Your situation is a little different in that your initial raise is from late position so the button's 3 bet doesn't - relatively speaking - mean much. But sb's cap is still worrisome as is bb's coldcall.

I think it's a close decision but these factors would sway me into calling:

1. My late position

2. My complete lack of reads on the other players

3 The fact that you are getting 7:1 odds (as opposed to less than 6:1 in my scenario)

4. The fact that you have position on 2 of the 3 players and the one guy who has position on you stands to have the weakest hand of the 4 of you.

5. The fact that many players don't cap from the blinds with AK which is one of the hands that you obviously don't want to be up against.

[SA125]

My experience online with PT and AQo shows why it's a gr 3 hand. I always lose money with it. But I believe players who are luckier than me have won a lot of money with it.

[Net Warrior]

I presume you open raised and there were no limpers in front of you. If so, bu most likely is putting you on a steal and is trying to isolate you. You probably have the better hand. SB is likely putting bu on an isolation play so your hand may still be best, or not much worse that SB's. BB may have a big pair or a good draw and is feeling frisky. I think you must see the flop.

[Xhiggy]

the button COULD be just trying to isolate you, but he'd do the same with any real hand. SB's cap is definitely legitimate if the SB is reasonable. BB has a hand that didn't mind putting in 3 more bets, so you put a range on that..

all in all, I'd call without a read. I think there are too many nice things that could flop, and I think with the position you'll be able to play well if an A flops. AK out there isn't THAT likely enough to be folding in this spot in my opinion.

[oneeye13]

how many aces you think are in this deck?

[Xhiggy]

[ QUOTE ]
how many aces you think are in this deck?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure exactly what you're implying, but if anything, it adds more to the case. If there is an AK out there, there's even less of a chance for an A to hit the flop. I think if a Q hits, you'll be in a good position to judge how to proceed (if at all).

[andyfox]

Another side to the argument:

1) You have "late" position, but there's a guy behind you. So really you're in the middle.

2) A complete lack of reads on all the other players will make the hand harder to play post-flop.

3) You're getting 7:1 but it's not like, say, five people limped and you can come in for one small bet where it will be likely both blinds will just call. These don't seem like passive players.

4) The guy who has position on you stands to be a pretty good player if he felt he wanted to isolate you with a fairly weak hand. And the blinds must feel pretty good about their hands to have capped and cold-called a cap out of position.

5) I see guys cap from the blinds with A-K; I guess they figure they're going to see a flop with that hand anyway, so what the hey. [Maybe, though, this happens more in loosey-goosey So. Calif. than in other venues.]

Not saying that you don't (as usual) make valid points, just that there's another side to the coin.

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
I presume you open raised and there were no limpers in front of you. If so, bu most likely is putting you on a steal and is trying to isolate you. You probably have the better hand. SB is likely putting bu on an isolation play so your hand may still be best, or not much worse that SB's. BB may have a big pair or a good draw and is feeling frisky. I think you must see the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's POSSIBLE they all misclicked! Call!

Seriously, your hand has to be crushed, and things are only going to get worse after the flop. You'll be the one paying off the huge majority of the time you flop a pair, so you're really getting less than 7:1. I think this is a fold. I'd call AK, and any pair in this spot.

Good luck.
Eric

[Tommy Angelo]

"One thing I do know, Tommy Angelo would have just folded it pre-flop"

Playing at an actual table, the only hands I would have folded in your situation are Kxo and worse.

Tommy

[Net Warrior]

Yeah heck, I'm mucking AQo 1st in from co from now on. After all, they might raise behind me. I might get crushed. After all, they'll probably outplay me from the flop on too.

[LarsVegas]

"5) I see guys cap from the blinds with A-K; I guess they figure they're going to see a flop with that hand anyway, so what the hey. [Maybe, though, this happens more in loosey-goosey So. Calif. than in other venues.]"

If there are weak spots in the game, and it's likely that you could find yourself up against 44, JJ and AT, it's still reasonable to be capping AK, even though it's dog against the JJ.

lars

[SLEEPER]

So what kind of flop would you like to see? The best scenario is the button has something like A10, the SB picked up a small pair, and the BB has a hand like 9/10 suited.... Personally, I would fold here, because I have to assume, given no reads, that somebody has a big pair or AK.... the likelihood that I am beating all 3 hands is too small.....

[Nigel]

Well as you may have guessed, I did fold, which is a first for me with AQo in a situation like this. If this was a 4 handed game, I obviously would never dream of folding in this spot, so I'm not sure why I decided to give it a go here. In fact, I said to my wife, who was sitting next to me, "watch, this is going to be the dumbest fold I've ever made", lol. Anyway, of course an A flopped, and of course KK took the pot down. So it got me really thinking about this hand, and I wanted to get a discussion going on it.

It's really interesting to see the varied opinions on what appears to be a somewhat simple situation, and I think skp's analysis and andyfox's reply best sum up my conflicting feelings about the hand, and why I'm so torn as to what is the "correct" play in this situation.

Yes, we do have postitional advantage, but as andy points out, we are not last to act. The other thing going against us, and somewhat seems to negate our positional advantage, is how easy is it going to be for us to get away from this hand? If this is heavy isolation play from aggressive players, how are we going to assess where we stand post flop on an Axx or Qxx flop vs. players who may continue to push their hand hard post flop? I may face flop and turn raises from a BB holding AJ on an Axx flop, and I'm going to need to call down with anything short of insane turn and river action on an ugly board, no? This seems like a very easy hand to become showdown committed in a big pot.

Yes, we have no reads, but how helpful are they here? If we know that all players are 15/5's or the SB is 60/1, then fine, easy fold. But, on the other hand, if 2 of the 3 players are super-aggressive, and one is mr. legit, it can still leave us in a bad situation post flop. Think something like a QQKA board vs. say a JTs an overagressive AJ or Ax and a KK who comes alive on the turn. Ok, so this is an extreme example, but I'm simply trying to illustrate that there are some flops where, not only do we end up second best, but we end up second best for 9+ additional BB's. It's quite reasonable to assume that if either SB or BB are on legit holdings, that our AQo is possibly drawing to 3 outs or fewer. So do we need to reevaluate our 7:1 number given the number of times we will pay off to the river and lose the pot, even if it only costs us 2.5-3 additional BB's?

Honestly, I'm surprised a couple of good players in this thread have advocated folding here, as I thought I was out of my mind when I did it; even though I feel like I can certainly rationalize reasons to do so. I mean, I fold AQ for 2 bets to an EP raiser all the time, so I'm not sure what makes this *that* different. Perhaps it's just one of those sitatuations that's so close and so infrequent that it doesn't matter much. I'm also genuinely surprised Tommy calls in this spot. Even though I was just kidding with him when I suggested he would fold pre-flop, (I meant before any action), I did think he would be the one player who easily lays down for 2 more here.

I'm still left feeling like this needs to just be a call pre-flop and then play solid poker post-flop, but I'm having lingering doubts that it's not that simple and I'm just being overly focused on the results from this one hand. Which is being more results oriented, seeing that you would have won the pot, or being statisfied that you made the right fold relative to your opponents holdings for that one hand, even if it turns out that correct play here is to call 100% - or even worse, seeing that it could have won you the pot?

Anyone have any other thoughts on this?

Nigel

[Tommy Angelo]

"Honestly, I'm surprised a couple of good players in this thread have advocated folding here, ... I'm also genuinely surprised Tommy calls in this spot."

Hmmm. :-)

[Nigel]

[ QUOTE ]
"Honestly, I'm surprised a couple of good players in this thread have advocated folding here, ... I'm also genuinely surprised Tommy calls in this spot."

Hmmm. :-)

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, when you put it like that, it comes out very wrong, lol. Sorry Tommy, wasn't implying anything there... not my intention. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Nigel

[twankerr]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold AQ for 2 bets to an EP raiser all the time

[/ QUOTE ]

There aren't 39 bagillion bets in the pot already

[andyfox]

It might be reasonable or not; my point is that there is probably more of it (capping with A-K from the small blind) in my game than in more passive environments where the blinds are more likely to just call a 3-bet with A-K.

[ike]

If you lose money with AQo over any meaningfully large sample, you're f'ing up. Bad.

[Net Warrior]

You're getting 7-1 on the call, assuming bu comes along. If you play this hand 8 times and you're up against AK as many as 4 times, you still figure to drag the pot 1 of the remaining 4 times to break even. Without reads, I'd guesstimate there's at least 1 LAG involved here. So I think you do better than breaking even in the long run.

[illguitar]

[ QUOTE ]
You're getting 7-1 on the call, assuming bu comes along. If you play this hand 8 times and you're up against AK as many as 4 times, you still figure to drag the pot 1 of the remaining 4 times to break even. Without reads, I'd guesstimate there's at least 1 LAG involved here. So I think you do better than breaking even in the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that this is a great point. When I first read this, I thought you definitely weren't crazy for thinking of folding. In fact, you're not even crazy for folding, but in my opinion you will win this pot more than 1/8 times making it profitable for you to continue. (Although it might only be 1.1-1.3/8). However, there is one stipulation to this. If the flop comes Q high or A high can you stand to call a raise? (Yes, I know that this is situationally dependent.) If not, then you won't win 1/8 making this a fold. The answer to this has more to do with your style than anything else. I don't think any of us can tell you what you should have done, personally...I call. If you fold AND it fits your style, good. Think about it this way. Were you more comfortable folding or calling? What about when the ace flopped? Did you want your hand back before there was action? My guess is that you are more comfortable staying away from extremely marginal situations. Something that I myself should be more comfortable with.

Ps- After running some 4 handed simulations you should probably call if you think that it is likely one or two pocket pairs plus one AK or AQ and one suited broadway. BUT the highest percentage that can be expected is only 24%, while you could be as dominated as dead. AA and QQ. If either AA or QQ is out. You're almost done before you start.

SO- to make a short post long, I would've called but I think the correct play for most people (including myself) is to fold.

[ike]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
You're getting 7-1 on the call, assuming bu comes along. If you play this hand 8 times and you're up against AK as many as 4 times, you still figure to drag the pot 1 of the remaining 4 times to break even. Without reads, I'd guesstimate there's at least 1 LAG involved here. So I think you do better than breaking even in the long run.



I think that this is a great point.

[/ QUOTE ]

It isn't. You've got 3 more streets to play, whether or not you win 1/8 times doesn't matter. It matters whether or not you show a profit. You almost certainly do win more than 1/8 but you may have to put in a lot of bets when behind while winning relatively smaller pots when you're ahead. When evaluating pretty much all preflop decisions, pot odds are insufficient to make an informed choice. You must consider implied, and in this case reverse implied, odds as well. I actually agree that its a call but the above analysis is no good.

[ QUOTE ]
The answer to this has more to do with your style than anything else. I don't think any of us can tell you what you should have done, personally...I call. If you fold AND it fits your style, good.

[/ QUOTE ]
I've seen several mentions of style lately on these boards. I hate style. Its such a cop out. Sure, when its really close and you don't have enough time to think just go with the play you're comfortable with, but when discussing hands on the forum style is irrelevant. The only time the right play for you is different from the right play for me is when one of us is more likely to screw up later in the hand or when our image will cause opponents to play differently against us. There is a real expected value associated with each decision you can make in a poker hand, your job is to pick the one that maximizes it. This calculation can often be hard or even impossible to do with any accuracy, but at no point does style enter into it.

Sorry if I came off as rude, nothing personal.

[pandared]

why is this a bad fold? u r dominated by aces, kings, queens, and a-k, things that people likely play by capping preflop, so I thought it was a pretty good fold, yea the result was that you would have hit one of your three outs against the kings, but that's just three outs...

If on the flop someone bets with the ace on board, it's very hard to gauge where you are at, calling it down and finding yourself outkicked by a-k often result to make you lose alot of money

[Net Warrior]

You wrote "When evaluating pretty much all preflop decisions, pot odds are insufficient to make an informed choice. You must consider implied, and in this case reverse implied, odds as well."

This is an excellent point.

You wrote: "I actually agree that its a call but the above analysis is no good."

I'd like to hear your take on why the call is profitable if reverse implied odds would be so damaging here.