Do you call here with any pair?

[Vee Quiva]

$50+5 Sit n Go at Party Poker. Nobody has really got out of line. Overall the table has been tight, which is why there are so many left and the blinds are so high.

Which pocket pair do you call with here?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t1680)
SB (t1830)
BB (t2255)
UTG (t1505)
MP (t2730)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t1505 (All-In)</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>.

Final Pot: t1955

[suited_ace]

Using a 66-AA, A7s+, A9o+, KQ+ range for UTG, ICM says it's a call, and it's not close. (I love my new toy).

Edit: your +EV calling range is 99+, AQ+

[ZBTHorton]

Yeah, it's an auto-call with 9's.

[Vee Quiva]

Would you care to elaborate on the math? I know about plugging chip counts into icm, but I am unsure on the calculations to find out if calling is EV+

[ZBTHorton]

If you plug the chip counts into ICM. Then it tells you whether it's +EV

[Vee Quiva]

I'm talking about the EV calculation on the range of hands.

Just plugging chip counts in the last step.

Here's what i came up with, please tell me if it's right or wrong.

I put him on any pair, AK, AQ, AJ, A10, or KQ. Suited or unsuited. My calculations give me 152 combinations of 2 cards for this range.

Of these, 30 of them I am a 20% underdog (AA-10,10); 80 of them I am a 55% favorite (Overcards); and 42 of them I am an 80% favorite (88-22).

So with some rounding errors using 1500 as the bet amount:
(19.7%)*1500*.2 -1500*.8 = -177
(52.6%)*1500*.55 -1500*.45 = 78
(27.7%)*1500*.8 -1500*.2 = 249
So the call is 249+78-177=150 positive EV.

Is this even close to correct?

[Nottom]

You need to see how your hand stacks up against the opponents range of hands, using Pokerstove in most cases, then use that information and compare it to a weighted average of possible ICM calculations.

Example: (numbers are completely made up)

You think your 99 will be about a 55% favorite against UTGs range of hands. (After consulting Pokerstove given UTGs push range)

If you fold ICM tells you your stack is worth 20% of the prize pool
If you call and lose, ICM gives you 2%
If you call and win, ICM gives you 35%

So if you call, 55% of the time you win for 35% equity and 45% you lose for 2% prize equity.

Now take the weighted average of these numbers .55(.35)+.45(.02) = 20.15%
which is slightly better than the EV of folding (20%) which would indicate that calling is slightly better than folding (but not much).

Also note that all of these calculations ignore the possiblity one of the blinds wakes up with a hand to overcall, so that should tighten your range up another notch and in this case might make it a fold.

Or you can just ship Eastbay $80 and let his program do it all for you.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]

Is this even close to correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

From Pokerstove:
[ QUOTE ]
equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 54.9500 % [ 00.54 00.01 ] { 99 }
Hand 2: 45.0500 % [ 00.44 00.01 ] { AA-22, AKs-ATs, KQs, AKo-ATo, KQo }

[/ QUOTE ]

3000 * .55 = 1650

Yup looks pretty close /images/graemlins/wink.gif