bubble stuff

[ChuckNorris]

My table image is somewhat reckless I believe. I got caught PVS'ing with crap and I've been stealing blinds. Not that my table image is so important with this hand, but it's should be taken into consideration when thinking about pasing up EV for better situations later.

Do you push here? Losing put's me in a crappy (however not at all hopeless) situation, but giving the short stack a walk sucks too. I believe pushing is slightly positive chip ev -wise, can't do the math while 4-tabling.

eurobet 50+5

Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: Mulperi ( $1795 )
Seat 4: r1ckkoz ( $855 )
Seat 6: ayman2006 ( $2810 )
Seat 8: OffRoad_555 ( $4540 )
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Mulperi [ Ts 5s ]
ayman2006 folds.
OffRoad_555 folds.
Mulperi.....

[djj6835]

COnsidering there is about a 100% chance you are getting called I think you should fold. BB already has nearly half his stack in the pot and you have 10 high. Even giving the BB a walk here still means you have twice his stack so folding can't be that bad.

[Nottom]

Its close, if he calls with anything (as he should) its slightly +$EV. If he is folding even the trashiest hands it quickly becomes an easy push.

[ChuckNorris]

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Even giving the BB a walk here still means you have twice his stack so folding can't be that bad.

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If I fold here, I have 1645 and BB has 1005, and the blinds hit me first, so I'm not near twice his stack and I think it's pretty bad.

[Nottom]

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COnsidering there is about a 100% chance you are getting called I think you should fold.

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The chance that this guy folds is significantly more than 0.

[ChuckNorris]

As I said, I had a loose table image, so he might well be calling with any two. But you never know, do you? So many 50+5'ers just love folding. But is it still such an EASY push? The thing that makes me wonder is that it's a high variance play chipwise and I don't have too many of them. What if I should I just take the smaller advantage with less risk, and trust in my skill advantage?

[ZBTHorton]

I think its a clear push honestly. Not even close.

[Nottom]

If you run this on SnG:PTs and have him calling with any two, its about a +0.4% $EV move or worth a little over $2 at a $50+5.

Considering many players are going to fold here 20-25% or more of the time even though they should almost certainly be calling with any 2, I think its a pretty clear push most of the time.

Edit: Honestly I'm a bit surprised by the results of this poll so far and think they are a pretty good indication of why SNGs are so profitable. This is a forum dedicated to SNG play, and 2/3 of the people answering don't even seem to understand a pretty basic SNG situation.

[ChuckNorris]

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What if I should I just take the smaller advantage with less risk, and trust in my skill advantage?
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If you run this on SnG:PTs and have him calling with any two, its about a +0.4% $EV move or worth a little over $2 at a $50+5.

Considering many players are going to fold here 20-25% or more of the time even though they should almost certainly be calling with any 2, I think its a pretty clear push most of the time.

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Now you just repeated the earlier argument based on ICM. I was just thinking if there is something here that ICM doesn't take into account.

I'm glad I did push it though. The more I think about it the more I agree with you. But still, I'm not that 100% certain just cos ICM says so.

Edit: the poll is 6-12 against pushing atm. Let's hear some REAL arguments for folding.. Or are there none?

[Nottom]

Sure you can argue that ICM isn't a good model here but I don't really see any reason that this spot wouldn't qualify.

In fact, if anything I think ICM probably overvalues folding here since you will be hitting the blinds again first which would make me lean towards pushing even more.

[djj6835]

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Considering many players are going to fold here 20-25% or more of the time even though they should almost certainly be calling with any 2

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I find this very very hard to believe.

[djj6835]

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Edit: the poll is 6-12 against pushing atm. Let's hear some REAL arguments for folding.. Or are there none?


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I agree with Nottom that this is an easy push if you actually think the BB will fold here. I just disagree with his assement that some people will fold 20% of the time or more. I would much rather fold this hand and then push the next two assuming the BB is calling with any two which I feel is an accurate assesment. Even if pushing this hand is just barely a +ev play, I think there is something to be said for passing on this in favor of some more +ev plays in the future such as pushing the next couple hands. I could be very wrong though.

[ChuckNorris]

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Considering many players are going to fold here 20-25% or more of the time even though they should almost certainly be calling with any 2


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I find this very very hard to believe.

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I actually don't. It's a big leak to overestimate your opponents in situations like this.

[Nottom]

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Considering many players are going to fold here 20-25% or more of the time even though they should almost certainly be calling with any 2

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I find this very very hard to believe.

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Do you actually play SNGs? This happens all the time, even at the 100s.

[Nottom]

So your alternative to pushing here is to wait until the big stack is in the BB then steal with any 2?

[djj6835]

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Do you actually play SNGs? This happens all the time, even at the 100s.



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I just think your being way too optimistic here. Your typical bad player is one who calls way to much especially when they are "defending" their BB, and suddenly you expect a bad player too fold when he is supposed to call. I don't care how bad the player is you're getting called here a whole lot more than 75% of the time. And yes I have played many SNGs.

[djj6835]

As a sidenote I consider this situation to be very similar to one in which you are the in BB with a garbage hand and are facing a push from a smaller stack. Many would advocate folding even if you are getting pretty good odds for the sake of preserving some fold equity. Again I am assuming that the BB is definitely calling. If the OP does push here and loses he will have virually no fold equity with his stack and considering the fact that he just showed down 10 5.