How long of a streak have you gone losing coinflips at the bubble?

[ChoicestHops]

I seem to be starting a record as I've probably dropped almost 20 buy-ins in my last 25 SnG's. I cant get any PP to hold up, whether high or low, and my high card's aren't beating lower pocket pairs.

Im starting to question whether it's worth pushing a hand like 10's when you've got 8bb.

[ChoicestHops]

Yesterday I had a great run in about 50 that I played. I was playing like I thought I was supposed to, yet today Ive
lost everything I earned. It just seems in the long run if the majority of the bubble is won/lost on coin flips you could only break even.

Keep grinding I guess.

edit: about about 4 more to the list: got about 8bb again and all-in 99 (SB) cant hold up to A10s in the BB and other plays Im sure no one gives a [censored] about.

[johnnybeef]

HA! 20 buyins....thats nothin. What you are experiencing is just normal variance. The bad news is that it will get worse. The good news is that it will get better. I'm currently down 20 buyins over the last two weeks, with my lowest point being down 40. Variance sucks, get used to it.

[ChoicestHops]

What if variance never evens out. My run today is horrid, Ive only been in the money probanly 3 of 30. Im trying to get 500 SnG's in 10 days, if I don't run out of a bankroll before then that is.

[maddog2030]

[ QUOTE ]
What if variance never evens out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then you are a losing player.

[ChoicestHops]

Last 5 days Ive got about 175 under my belt. Yet after today and losing basically every time my ROI is quite possibly about 3%. Im going to try to clear another 50 for the rest of the day. It's just sickening when you can't win with the best of it continuously.

[flyingmoose]

20 buyins isn't nothing. It's a very sucky streak -- not the worst it will get by any means, of course -- but it's not like 20 buy-in downswings happen all the time.

My advise: DON'T KEEP TRACK OF HOW MANY COINFLIPS YOU LOST. The last thing you need to do during a downswing is turn yourself into a martyr.

[ChoicestHops]

Well only thing I can do is play correctly, and play as many as possible in hopes to even it out.

[skipperbob]

Where, in the pluperfectfuck, is Citanul when we need him? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
What if variance never evens out. My run today is horrid, Ive only been in the money probanly 3 of 30. Im trying to get 500 SnG's in 10 days, if I don't run out of a bankroll before then that is.

[/ QUOTE ]


I'm not sure what your br is, how good of a player you are, or what levels you are playing at so it is difficult to answer this question. My advice to you is to look through your hhs and find out where you are losing a lot of chips at, and go from there. That being said, it is highly possible for a winning player to go through a stretch that you are going through.

[ChoicestHops]

Ironically I never had this happen at the 15+1's or the 25's at Stars, but Im here at the 5's trying to play 500 in 10 days and build a bankroll.

With the aggression and donks that call with anything at this level it's seems like it's easier to get sucked out on. I dont know if this is correct poker logic or not.

Im losing most of my chips when it's 4-5 handed. Occassionally I'll be one of the first out when I get married to a pocket pair or have too much equity to give up and get sucked out on.

Im thinking I may need to switch up my strategy. Is the gap concept overrated? At a SnG you only have a limited time to accumulate chips, and If I switched up to moderately aggressive in the earlier levels to get some chips I can suffer more bad beats at the bubble.