Profit Versus Development

[JohnnyHumongous]

I saw another thread on this site regarding multitabling and this post was made:

[ QUOTE ]
Your future earn is what matters.

Playing 4 tables hinders your development as a player.

Many low limit and small stakes players pick up bad habits.

Their game is not complete, they fail to continue learning and losing the bad habits they have picked up because they have repeated their bad habits so many times.

This is why playing 4 tables isnt good for most players.

Too many people think about oh well im earning 2BB/100 at 2 tables so if I play 4 and still make 1.5BB/100 plus rakeback I'll be way ahead.

Personally I'd rather earn 2bb/100 at 2 tables continue to improve, move up and make 2bb/100 at a higher limit.

Move up again while Mr 4table + rakeback guy is still grinding away in the low limits.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's the problem... when does profit start to overtake personal poker development in importance? By 4-tabling 10/20 one can make upwards of $200 per hour. Throw in rakeback and the expected earnings can conceivably exceed $300 per hour. What can one do to profit more than this?

Take a player who is 4-tabling 10/20 and making $250+ per hour doing so. Where can he go now in terms of poker development? 50/100? 100/200? He would probably get crushed at 100/200 if he sat down there. He would certainly need to single table for a while to get acclimated. If he could win at say 1.5BB/100 at 50/100 that would be incredible. But that is a mere $150 per hour, and he could conceivably have days where he loses $8-10K or more as part of normal variance.

With regards to my own poker situation... Maybe one day I will spring for a coach and then work my way into the high limit games, but as far as I can tell to be successful and profitable at those games you need:

-experience (I could use more)
-lack of fear (I have this at 10/20 but probably not at 100/200)
-great fundamental skills (again this is lacking- I have never really read any poker books)
-need to be on your "game" 100% of the time that you are playing... can't coast or auto-pilot at any time
-need to be basically tilt-proof
-need to emotionally distance one's self from the prospect of dropping a huge amount of money in a short period of time

As far as I can tell, all these are necessary conditions to be successful at the higher limits, not sufficient conditions. One could meet all these requirements and still fudge it up.

I hope this post starts a discussion about the pros and cons of moving in different directions with regards to poker, and maybe we can discuss the best ways to develop above the mid-limit level at Party etc.

[Grisgra]

Obviously, making $200+/hr 4-tabling 10/20 is pretty damn good -- I hope to be there someday -- but I also think that the optimal route is to keep climbing up, the way folks like Nate and rory and Schneids have (playing 30/60 and 50/100). Certainly, at some point you may make the realization that you can't beat those games, but I can't imagine not taking a shot.

[cartman]

You are exactly right about the financial aspects. If you play 3 solid years at $250/hr, you will probably be able to stockpile around a million after tax. That essentially guarantees you a nice income for the rest of your life from the interest alone. I'm not saying that is the way to go, but I certainly wouldn't fault anyone who chose that route. Accumulate enough money and you win the financial game. (You can always aspire to become a world champion then.) My fear is that the internet game won't be available long enough to accomplish this.

Cartman

[StellarWind]

The difference between a profession and a job is a professional continues to master his profession outside of working hours.

How many hours per week do you devote to reading, posting, analyzing, reviewing hands, and so forth? That's the important thing. Not how many tables you play.

So are you a professional poker player or is it just your job?

If it's just your job there is a really good chance you'll need a different job in five years.

[aslowjoe]

[ QUOTE ]
You are exactly right about the financial aspects. If you play 3 solid years at $250/hr, you will probably be able to stockpile around a million after tax. That essentially guarantees you a nice income for the rest of your life from the interest alone. I'm not saying that is the way to go, but I certainly wouldn't fault anyone who chose that route. Accumulate enough money and you win the financial game. (You can always aspire to become a world champion then.) My fear is that the internet game won't be available long enough to accomplish this.

Cartman

[/ QUOTE ]

Well said. Also in the end the life of a proffesional gambler is never an easy one even if successful. I played the horses many years semi pro and had friends who played as only source of income. Although once my dream to be a proffessional gambler, after living and seeing the life I now prefer gambling as an enchancement to my life rather then the mainstay. So for the moment take the money and run. $250 an hour is amazing and tough to duplicate anywhere else.

[sam h]

[ QUOTE ]
If you play 3 solid years at $250/hr, you will probably be able to stockpile around a million after tax.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not even close.

[Nigel]

I think the number of players who's true win rate at the end of one year of *full-time* play would be $250/hr+ is very, very, very small.

And as was pointed out, that doesn't get you to $1 million in 3 years. Once you get to $1 million, let's say it takes 4 years, how do you live comfortably off of interest on that small a sum?

I don't think it's as simple as you're envisioning it to be.

Nigel

[JohnnyHumongous]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the number of players who's true win rate at the end of one year of *full-time* play would be $250/hr+ is very, very, very small.

And as was pointed out, that doesn't get you to $1 million in 3 years. Once you get to $1 million, let's say it takes 4 years, how do you live comfortably off of interest on that small a sum?

I don't think it's as simple as you're envisioning it to be.

Nigel

[/ QUOTE ]

I wasn't making an argument that full-timers should play 4 straight years of 4-table 10/20. You're right, 30 hours per week for 50 straight weeks would probably be hard to sustain at $250/hour at 10/20. Hell, I've only been "full time" for like 3 weeks (I have the summer off ahead of starting my job) and already I had to take a "vacation" this weekend (I bolted for a couple of days to clear my head).

Going forward, however, I plan on playing in my spare time only. I will be taking a 50 hour per week consulting gig in September. in the 8-10 hours per week I would play poker I feel that making the 250 per hour would be better than dabbling in 50/100 and up and potentially breaking even or losing money over a period of up to 3 months. Poker's not going to make me a millionaire; I feel it will make me comfortable in comparison with other consultants and assorted young professionals, and will give me the financial flexibility to dabble in investments, entrepreneurial opportunities etc. where I will (hopefully) make some REAL money.

[Nigel]

In general, I agree with the premise of what you're saying, so I hope my reply didn't come across the wrong way - I just wanted to point out that's it not as easy as it seems sometimes.

I think the idea of logging some serious hours in a lower limit, readily available, fish infested game instead of risking an ulcer dabbling in high limit games has tons of merit. I agree with you that the lower limit games are great for earning cash, building your roll, etc. All the things you were saying. In fact, I had always preferred the 5/10 6 max to the 10/20 for that reason - easy money, no swings.

However, I envision a time in the not-too-distant future where all mid-limit games and higher are populated by people who have at least some clue as to how to play the game. At that point, I think it will become necessary to move up to make a decent living at this game. Therefore, I think now is the best time to start moving up through these limits, while the poker boom is hot and you have wealthy fish hopping online and giving these games a try. It doesn't have to be a full time thing, but there is indeed lots of money to be made in these higher games, albeit with some risk to your bankroll and higher stress, for sure.

I figure the sooner I can comfortably entrench myself at 50/100 and higher, the better off I'm going to be in the long run. Just my thoughts...

Nigel

[giddyup]

[ QUOTE ]
I envision a time in the not-too-distant future where all mid-limit games and higher are populated by people who have at least some clue as to how to play the game. At that point, I think it will become necessary to move up to make a decent living at this game. Therefore, I think now is the best time to start moving up through these limits, while the poker boom is hot and you have wealthy fish hopping online and giving these games a try.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure if this is quite true. Poker, like all forms of gambling brings in a significant amount of "gambling" type players who will probably never have a good understanding of the game. Most players simply lack the time or interest to play the game correctly. It takes a lot of time and energy to turn yourself into a long-term winning player.
I believe many players who think they are winning players simply have not played enough and many losing players are just satisfied to play for the entertainment of it. Most players have full-time jobs and/or families and will never get serious enough about the game to beat it, yet will continue to play believing that they have just had a bad month... month after month.
It seems hard to believe that there will be a sudden or even gradual transformation of weak players into strong players. I think the only way we will be in jeopardy is if they somehow shut down online gambling, which is exceedingly hard to do as recent litigations have proven.
I am interested to hear what others think on this matter, or if people know some stats or projections about an increase in the % of strong players.

[Nigel]

I don't think it's the transformation from weak to strong that is the big problem, I think it's that weak players will lose interest in the game once poker loses the rock 'n roll status that is enjoying now.

Nigel

[helpmeout]

$250 an hour at

10/20 = 400 hands at 3bb/100
15/30 = 280 hands at 3bb/100
30/60 = 210 hands at 2bb/100
50/100 = 170 hands at 1.5bb/100
100/200 = 125 hands at 1bb/100

I dont think playing 400 hands an hour at 3bb/100 (10/20)is realistic even for the best players. You definately cant do this for 40 hours a week over a few years.

Even if you could the problem is that if the games get tougher or the rake increases and you only earn 2.5bb/100 you will take a large pay cut.

A higher limit player has more options when a certain limit becomes bad. These 50/100 games suck today but I can beat 30/60 and lower without too much a drop in my earn.

A 10/20 6maxer these games suck today hmm I can go play 5/10 for half my earn.

The major problem however isnt for someone who is making big money ($200+ an hour), it is the guys who are beating 5/10 6max or lower and playing multiple tables instead of improving and moving up.

You always hear about the guys 6 tabling or 8 tabling 3/6 or 5/10 6max for amounts lower than a half decent 15/30 player could make playing 2 tables.

These guys move up and get raped then give up because it becomes too much for them.

[pyroponic]

I think experienced multi-tablers who really focus can still really develop their games playing three or even four tables.
Not all multi-tabling TAGs keep the same pace nor with the same attentiveness.