87 river plan

[Chris Daddy Cool]

party 20/40 game okay game, 2 big donators but the rest of the table seems decent at worst. i've been card dead and haven't played a hand in ages.

i raise utg with 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. mp makes it 3 bets and donator caps on the button. i've seen him do this with A7o so take that as it is. sb folds. donator#2 calls all cold in the bb. he will do this with a wide range as well, connecting cards, suited cards, decent aces, broadways. i call. mp calls. 4 to the flop for 16.5 small bets.

flop: 8 /images/graemlins/club.gifA /images/graemlins/diamond.gif5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

bb checks. i bet. mp calls. button calls. bb calls. 4 to the turn for 10.25 big bets.

turn: 7/images/graemlins/club.gif

bb checks. I check. mp bets. button calls. bb folds. i raise. mp 3-bets. button calls. i call. 3 to the river for 19.25 big bets.

river: 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif

sup homies?

[Evan]

If you were't willing to cap the turn I don't see how this changes that much. We sucked out on A8/A5/55, but those all seem pretty unlikely anyway.

EDIT: It also removes 77 from his range, obviously. But that was only 1 combo anyway, so no biggie.

[miami32]

Why would you raise utg with 87suited?

[mr pink]

no way is anyone putting you on 2 pair in this spot.

looks like mp either slowplayed top set, or figures you and he are tied with AK.

i dunno, check/raise looks like a pretty good option, especially if the button overcalls.

edit: i suppose you'd also have to fold to a 3-bet on the river if you go with the check/raise unless mp is a total LAG.

[Carmine]

I think I would bet/call this. I don't want to miss bets. AA is the only hand we fear. 88 also but you hold one and one on the board makes that unlikley. I also don't want to pay three to find out he holds one of the two hands that beat me.

[MarkD]

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87 river plan

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Jesus, I'm still confused by your turn play. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[PokerBob]

checkity checkity raisity raisity

[PokerBob]

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Why would you raise utg with 87suited?

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i've been card dead and haven't played a hand in ages.


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[Justin A]

I check and call here if MP seems decent.

[toss]

Check calling with a rivered full house seems weird with the donator in the hand. The way MP's played though implies a better fullhouse or over occasionally played AKo or something. Ehhhhh checkcall. Not sure if thats the best move.

[nothumb]

I think I like bet and hope MP either calls or raises and button calls or cold-calls. If I bet and it's 2 more back to me then I really cringe. That's the only possibility that makes me even consider check-call here.

I guess if you've got a bit of a read on MP here you can go for the c/r. For instance if he will continue to bet the straight or other hand you beat and particularly if he just calls sometimes with a hand that beats you after you c/r.

I dunno dude. Close. I think I like bet/call.

NT

[benwood]

I didn't want to read the other posts when I saw that raise you made on the flop. Wise up, or leave poker in a body bag.

[private joker]

Check-raise and call a 3-bet. Stop-n-going on this river will slow AK down all the time. A5 also knows it just got counterfeited. But checking will induce many hands to bet, and 55 might even 3-bet your c/r. Most hands will cry and call your c/r, knowing they're beat. But I think you can get 2BBs in, possibly from both players given that MP is the likely one to bet. If Button was the aggressor, I'd bet to trap MP in between. But given your position, I like the c/r.

BTW, I like the other three streets. If MP has 88 or AA, he can bite me.

[The Dude]

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I check and call here if MP seems decent.

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If you're going to be that afraid of AA then you shouldn't be calling the turn 3-bet.

[Justin A]

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I check and call here if MP seems decent.

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If you're going to be that afraid of AA then you shouldn't be calling the turn 3-bet.

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Huh? To put in a checkraise on the river you need to be good 2/3 of the time or more. To call down the turn 3bet you need to be good much less often. I'm saying I think you're good a bit less than 2/3 of the time.

[The Dude]

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I'm saying I think you're good a bit less than 2/3 of the time.

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And I'm saying that if your hand is only good 2/3 of the time when you catch your 7, then you're not getting the odds to draw on the turn. I might actually run the math tomorrow morning to be sure, but I'm fairly certain calling down is bad if you think you're that far behind.

And btw, I think there are too many suited A/images/graemlins/club.gif hands that will be 3-betting that turn to think you're that far behind.

[TripleH68]

Go for the check-raise. Your hand is so well disguised, plus it sure looks like button has been calling down an A since the flop. Squeeze him for another bet and hope you sucked out on 55.

Would MP 3-bet preflop with that hand?

[Hoi Polloi]

Something that hasn't been brought up yet. What do your opponents put you on here?

I don't think anybody's got you on a boat. AK, AQ or big pair. Button, of course, is probably not thinking about it. How does that change our thinking about opponents' betting?

I think you're ahead of both players a very high percentage of the time here. Bet/3-bet, I think, unless you think you'll get a c/r in.

[wireMan]

Only read a couple of the responses so far, but I come out betting the river, calling one back to me. Of course, there is no way I play 20/40 (more like 2/4 and 3/6 sometimes), so for what it's worth I don't want to miss bets on this river and would feel uncomfortable getting 3-bet, so I lead the river.

[meep_42]

To me, MP3's 3-bet of CDC's bet-check/raise line indicates a real powerhouse (especially after going for overcalls on the flop after 3-betting pf). MP3 3-bet pre-flop and this doesn't seem consistent with any hand we beat. The position of the donators also needs to be taken into account, as it is much more likely they'll call 1 bet, rather than 2.

With the donators to act after MP, I don't want to face them with 2-cold the first time around, at least. So I think you need to start this river with a check. As for raising, I don't think I would raise here, as the hands i'd put MP on crush CDC's baby full. Unless MP would 3-bet for a free showdown, then I think it's closer as I doubt true donators would call 1 and fold for 1 more if MP doesn't 3-bet.

So, I weaksauce and check-call.

-d

[mscags]

I really like a check raise. The villian is showing a ton of aggression and I think he will definitely bet, not to mention an overcall would be nice.

[private joker]

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MP3 3-bet pre-flop and this doesn't seem consistent with any hand we beat.

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But the only hands that beat us are A7, 88, and AA. He wouldn't 3-bet with A7, correct? Would he with 88? There's only 1 combo of that anyway. That leaves us with AA, 3 ways to have it. The betting is consistent with that, but he will also have AK and AQ here a lot, since it's hard to put CDC on 87.

That makes 4 likely combos that beat us, and a lot more that we beat (we just sucked out on A8, A5, and 55). While I think AA is a reasonable hand, there are more reasonable combos that we beat, so I still like a check/raise, with a bet/call as a fine second choice.


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[jskills]

I don't see anyone talking about preflop, so I'll have to ask.

Is this

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i've been card dead and haven't played a hand in ages

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The reason for this?
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i raise utg with 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

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Looks to me like MP has AK, AQ, or AA (AK-AQ being more likely). His play is strange in that he just calls the flop and then bets out on the turn, three betting when he's raised. I think I have to cap the turn with two pair here.

The river looks like a good check raise spot, but why not just lead out? You might get raised anyway, with the way MP3 is playing, so I'd call one back to me. The only hands he could realistically hold that beat you is AA or 88. I guess the good thing about not capping the turn is you can now check / call the river if you can put him on either of those hands.

Disclaimer: This limit is way out of my league, so I could be talking out of my ass.

[gaming_mouse]

chris,

can you explain your reasoning on all streets? i see reasons for all your choices, but don't know if they were your reasons....

[meep_42]

I just don't see reasonable opponents 3-betting AK/AQ against a lead-check/raise much, so it throws me for a loop.

I suppose in the more aggressive games a 3-bet with AK/AQ/images/graemlins/club.gif is reasonable, though. I just can't say that i've ever seen it at 3/6.

-d

[sthief09]

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I'm saying I think you're good a bit less than 2/3 of the time.

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And I'm saying that if your hand is only good 2/3 of the time when you catch your 7, then you're not getting the odds to draw on the turn. I might actually run the math tomorrow morning to be sure, but I'm fairly certain calling down is bad if you think you're that far behind.

And btw, I think there are too many suited A/images/graemlins/club.gif hands that will be 3-betting that turn to think you're that far behind.

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and those suited A/images/graemlins/club.gif hands would have raised the flop, wouldn't they have? I find it extremely unlikely that A/images/graemlins/club.gifQ-T/images/graemlins/club.gif decides that his hand isn't strong enough to raise the flop, then 3-bets a checkraise on the turn, or thinks his hand is worthy of slowplaying. A/images/graemlins/club.gifK/images/graemlins/club.gif is the only hand that really makes sense to me. and since AA makes perfect sense, you'd be hard pressed to find us 6 combinations of discounted hands that this guy can have. I can even handicap you 2 combinations for a random bluff type stupid hand. Throw in A/images/graemlins/club.gifK/images/graemlins/club.gif, AcQc-AcTc all discounted and you're still not close to 6.

[sthief09]

I played a similar hand. I figure I should share it. I think I told you about it but the river decision is almost identical.


PP 20/40 full game, TAGgy UTG raises, 3 of the next 4 cold call, I call T/images/graemlins/spade.gif8/images/graemlins/spade.gif in LMP, button and blinds come along. so 8 to the flop for 2 bets apiece.

flop comes KT8 rainbow giving me a backdoor flush draw. UTG bets, gets 3 callers, I call, and the button calls. 6 to the turn for 11 BB

turn is an undercard that doesn't make a straight but gives me a flush draw. so we'll call it the 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif

UTG bets, one caller, I raise, button calls, UTG 3-bets, everyone calls

River is a T, giving me tens full.

I raised and paid off a 3-bet. I felt like ti was a stupid autopilot raise, but I asked a few people, CDC included, and was told that I have to raise the river. A/images/graemlins/spade.gifK/images/graemlins/spade.gif and AA make sense, as do other random hands that don't make much sense. in this situation, there is no AA like on my board, but AKs and random hands are still possible.

I have problems comprehending why we should bet or raise on this board, but I can udnerstnad that just because we think logically does not mean someone with good looking stats does

[Justin A]

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I'm saying I think you're good a bit less than 2/3 of the time.

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And I'm saying that if your hand is only good 2/3 of the time when you catch your 7, then you're not getting the odds to draw on the turn. I might actually run the math tomorrow morning to be sure, but I'm fairly certain calling down is bad if you think you're that far behind.

And btw, I think there are too many suited A/images/graemlins/club.gif hands that will be 3-betting that turn to think you're that far behind.

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I don't feel that you're drawing on the turn. You've got the best hand or you don't. The 7 really doesn't change anything.

[PokerBob]

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PP 20/40 full game, TAGgy UTG raises, 3 of the next 4 cold call, I call T/images/graemlins/spade.gif8/images/graemlins/spade.gif in LMP,

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really? How low do you go here? 76s?

[Justin A]

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I played a similar hand. I figure I should share it. I think I told you about it but the river decision is almost identical....


...I raised and paid off a 3-bet. I felt like ti was a stupid autopilot raise, but I asked a few people, CDC included, and was told that I have to raise the river. A/images/graemlins/spade.gifK/images/graemlins/spade.gif and AA make sense, as do other random hands that don't make much sense. in this situation, there is no AA like on my board, but AKs and random hands are still possible.

I have problems comprehending why we should bet or raise on this board, but I can udnerstnad that just because we think logically does not mean someone with good looking stats does

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Here's a similar hand that GoT played a couple weeks ago in a live 20/40 game.

UTG1 raises, tight UTG2 3bets, one cold caller, GoT makes a loose call in the BB with T9h. (FWIW he knew the call was wrong but wanted to test himself postflop)

Flop comes T92. I don't remember the exact flop action, but GoT put the last raise somewhere and ended up heads up with the 3bettor, don't remember if it was checkraise or not.

Turn is a K. GoT bets, guy raises, GoT calls.

River is a 9. GoT checks and calls and his hand is no good.

[sthief09]

I don't know. calling just felt right there.

[private joker]

AA in CDC's hand and KK in sthief's hand are equally likely (both in combos and based on action), but the other hands that beat you guys (A7 in that one, KT in this one) is where the hands differ -- a player is much more likely to raise KTs UTG than 3-bet A7, making KT a more likely holding, and therefore more hands likely to be beating sthief than beating CDC.

So I'd just call in sthief's case and check-raise in CDC's. However, now I'm starting to change my mind to bet/call in CDC's, since I'm getting convinced that AA is a very likely holding even at only 3 combos, based on MP's turn action.

[sthief09]

(FWIW he knew the call was wrong but wanted to test himself postflop)


this is very un-zen-like

[PokerBob]

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I don't know. calling just felt right there.

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Spoken like a true generate gambler. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[sthief09]

I wouldn't really consider KTs possible in my hand. he had like an 8 PFR and UTG he's probably nto raising KTs. TT and 88 could be though, and I beat 88


but every once in a while you're shown AKo or KQ

[The Dude]

Maybe not. It sounds like MP is pretty capable of varying his play, which means he's going to think a hand like A/images/graemlins/club.gif Q:club, or A/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/club.gif could very easily be better off waiting until the turn.

[Paxosmotic]

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Why would you raise utg with 87suited?

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i've been card dead and haven't played a hand in ages.


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There's no way CDC does it out of boredom. Too much experience and patience for that. Looks like deception and game theory at its finest.

[jason_t]

Hi Chris,

gaming_mouse and I discussed this hand for awhile tonight and feel we've come to understand it.

This is a good flop for your hand. You have middle pair, a backdoor flush draw and a weak backdoor straight draw. We like the flop bet. It keeps you from being in the position of having two call two bets cold and may slow down the insane preflop action if no one has an ace. However, the flat calls by the players behind are pretty scary.

The turn is standard. You hit a great card for your hand and have great position to implement a check/raise. The turn 3-bet narrows down MP's hand to AK or AA. The pot is huge and you have to call down.

The river doesn't change your hand at all against MP's two likely hands. You want a bet going in on the river and he will value bet AK here but if two bets go in on this river you are likely beat. Check/call to keep it slow and let the Button overcall.

Jason.

[meep_42]

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The turn is standard. You hit a great card for your hand and have great position to implement a check/raise. The turn 3-bet narrows down MP's hand to AK or AA. The pot is huge and you have to call down.

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I've been missing a lot, then. How sure are we that we can trap the field for extra bets with a turn c/r and not force them on two-cold? Do we care if we face them with two cold?

-d

[sthief09]

I don't understand how you're justifying a flop bet by saying betting adn calling a raise is better than checking and calling 2? if no one has an ace it won't slow anything down either. by betting into MP you're also not cleaning anything up if he raises. the only justification I can think of is you put a lot of pressure on MP to give up somethign like TT or 99 and you have the donk button who could have KQ or similar overcards. if this isn't why he bet then I'd like to hear why. and if this is the case, I think checkraising MP and the donk isprobably the most effective way to get an overpair to 8s out

[Chris Daddy Cool]

I actually played this hand after talking with josh about a similiar hand he played (which he posted in this thread) and while I thought his hand he clearly had to raise, this river I thought was a little different.

I'll run by my thoughts street by street.

preflop is whatever. you'll have a hard time convincing me that it is wrong to raise here every once in a while which I'll do from time to time.

as for the flop, i think not leading is a big mistake. if you're going to call a bet on this flop you should bet it yourself especially if you can get mp to fold 99+ and its no guarantee that the donators will even have an ace here.

turn is pretty straighforward.

river is of course the tricky part. after getting 3-bet on the turn i suddenly don't feel that great about my hand except the presence of a picked up flush draw keeps me from folding. (The fact that the A /images/graemlins/club.gif is not on the board is HUGE)

I didn't really give a good description of mp. would he 3-bet me preflop with 88, A8s, or A5s? I honestly don't know if he would but most players wouldn't so I discounted those heavily.

So in my mind I was thinking...

AA 3 combos
AKc, AQc, AJc 3 combos

with the donator still in the pot this seems like a fairly check and raise, but given the fact that when I played this hand I didn't feel comforatable with having to face a 3-bet and the fact that I totally discounted 88 and A7s balanced it out for me enough to just check and call down expecting to see AA most of the time here while not feeling *too* bad if it turned out I missed a checkraise against a worse hand.

so I checked intending to just call and a strange thing happened. MP checked also and now the donator bet. Now I checkraised. MP seemed to hesitate but called and the donator called as well.

MP had A/images/graemlins/club.gifQ/images/graemlins/club.gif and donator had A /images/graemlins/heart.gif4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif and MHIG.

[private joker]

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MP had A/images/graemlins/club.gifQ/images/graemlins/club.gif and donator had A /images/graemlins/heart.gif4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif and MHIG.

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Your opponents played horribly. But nh on your part. /images/graemlins/cool.gif