Playing on instinct

[IGMorton]

I've reached a point where i feel like i often know when someone has hit trips or top 2 pair, etc. It's a weird gut instinct that i can't describe with words. Some of it probably comes from around the 80 thousand hands i've played and some of it may be inspired by "Zen and the art of Poker". Many times i find i'm right and wish i could have found the fold button.

Being a mathematics student... my logical mind is constantly fighting my instincts. An example scenario: i'm often in a huge pot where i'm facing a river raise and i feel like the vilan could be on on a flush / straight draw but also could have 2 pair beating my TPGK. the logical mind knows he only has to be bluffing or "firing the last barel" after a failed flush / straight draw a tiny percentage of the time for me to have the pot odds on a call. But somehow, even when i feel he is bluffing i can't give in to my instincts and fold. Maybee this is ego related... we all love to catch someone on a bluff. Maybee it's a hallmark of expert play that i just can't grasp.

Truth is... i'm barely a winning player (like 1.4 BB / 100) over my entire poker experience over the last year. yes, i crushed the low levels. but now that i'm starting to play more solid opponents (and barely winning), how much should i trust my instincts?

On a side note... "Zen and the art of Poker" makes a really good point about how much our mind is working outside the 'conscious' awareness. It is well documented in the sciences that much of our brain's processing (neurologic activity) seems beyond our limited conscious awareness. For example... when multitabling, it seems quite likely that my subconscous mind is intuitive putting opponent on a 'range of hands' based on their betting actions. I often don't have the time to analytically analyze all my opponents possible holdings and calculate likelhood of being beat. Why not trust those subliminal processes?

[etizzle]

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now that i'm starting to play more solid opponents (and barely winning), how much should i trust my instincts?


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probably less. Both better players and worse players at the higher limits bluff more.

[kiddo]

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Many times i find i'm right and wish i could have found the fold button.

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Your are going backward, not forward. "Your instict" is often right. Yes, of course. Becase "your instict" sees that someone raises you on river and you aint got much. But if "your instict" is right 9/10 u still should call if potodds are 1/10 or better.

What you call "your instict" is normally only what any decept player should think the other one got. Of course u are often right. Problem is: How often? And now u need logic.

Doyle Brunson talks about instict in SuperSystem and about how it should be trusted. I think Harrington does a wonderful job showing u what this instict is all about.

[pyroponic]

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Truth is... i'm barely a winning player (like 1.4 BB / 100) over my entire poker experience over the last year.

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I wouldn't call this winrate "barely winning."

[IGMorton]

i'm not doing that well at 3/6 6-max. winrate was over 2.0 BB/100 at 1/2, 2/4 and 1/2 short hand.

at 2/4 short hand i'm around 1.5.

at 3/6 short hand i'm around 1.0.

so, you see... i'm truly barely winning now. i'm sure after some experience i might reach 2.0 BB/100 at medium stakes 6-max. but, i'm not there yet.

[IGMorton]

the 3/6 level is kind of a no man's land for aspiring serious players flirting with 5/10 and the recreational micro-limit players who are playing out of curiosity. those testing the waters don't seem to bluff.

i meet people in 3/6 who are also currently playing 2/4 a lot. these guys tend to be quite tight and predictable... rarely bluffing. some of it may be bankroll constraints or just simple timidness in the shark tank.

the loose fools coming from 1/2 sit down with a 15 BB and call to the river almost never bluff.

the better players play that level with an obvious confidence. they seem be advertising that they can't be pushed aroud when they sit down with a very large stack (100+ BB). these guys do tend to bluff more.

[chloee]

Given the generally worse play of shorthanded players, I'd consider 1bb/100 to be barely beating the game as well. However, that being said, if you are beating the game for as much at this level, it may be a good place to stay a while and try to improve your game while slowly grinding away some more bankroll.

Chloee

[rory]

People do one half of the work and not the other. They see 7 bets in the pot and say, "Well it's 1 bet to me so that means my opponent only has to be bluffing 12% of the time for me to break even so I call." But they don't say, "Do I think this particular opponent is bluffing right now based on the action?" which is the question you should be asking yourself. Then you can factor your gut into your decision mathematically. Just listing the odds you are getting and saying they are good is not enough. You have to think about your opponent, think about the betting in the hand to this point and decide if it is at all reasonable to conclude that this particular opponent could be trying to bluff you right now more than 12% of the time. A lot of times what you are calling your 'gut' is just your past experience and poker knowledge telling you that in this situation, against this kind of player with this action there is almost no chance this bet is a bluff. But if you just do one half of the work and say, "Well he only has to be bluffing 13% of the time or greater for calling to be profitable." you will just auto-call because you are supposed to.

It is good that you are noticing you are not letting your 'gut' into your play. Just take a second and quanitate your gut and think everything over before you act. You will make mistakes sometimes and make the right decision sometimes and eventually your 'gut' will get better at picking when it is right to call and when it is wrong to call, and your win rate will improve. But just make sure you quantitate your gut, so you can make the best decision you can.