Party 30/60: raised on the turn again

[34TheTruth34]

Here is an area where I'm having a lot of trouble:

Party 30/60, I am in the BB with 76s. two folds, An extemely loose passive player limps in next (he'd raise with his good hands) everyone folds to the CO who raises. Button and SB fold, I call, LP calls. three players.

Flop Q-Q-6 rainbow. It's checked to the CO who bets, I check-raise, loose player folds, CO calls. Heads up

Turn 4. I bet he raises. My guess is that this player is a solid, aggressive player (1000 hands, 20/10/2/44 WSD). His turn aggression is 2.8.

What's your plan?

[mike l.]

fold he has a Q or a pocket pair he really likes too often to make calling right.

someone earlier in bk's 99 hand was talking about once you get the fish out go ahead and go into check-call mode. sure you risk giving a free card but you dont get put to the test with a raise either. now for bk's hand that did not apply because of the opponent he was against, but in this case i think it's an option worth considering. there should be a name for this play of getting it heads up with the intention of check-calling down against a tougher opponent you dont want to be tested by.

[34TheTruth34]

thanks for responding. You seem to like both folding and check-calling down. Which do you think is better against this particular player?

[mike l.]

"1000 hands, 20/10/2/44 WSD"

he's a pretty tough customer. he usually has it. fold.
but change the stats a little and maybe this check-call idea is a good one?

there's one more thing here though. when you check the turn after getting it heads up and the guy has let's say AK he will oftentimes not bet. youve thrown water on the fire and it now looks like you have a hand you want to get to showdown with. some of these okay tight players (and again i dont know if this guy is better than ok or what) are looking to keep variance down so they gladly take the free card. but they might be smart/brave enough to raise the turn figuring you to be good enough to fold a 6 w/ hands you beat. you see? it seems like a contradiction but i think it makes sense.

this is an extension of when youre in a pot on the river and someone has been betting into you the whole way and some nothing card comes on the river and now your opponent checks. they are oftentimes suddenly checking with the intention of calling because they have a hand they see as okay showdown value but that would hate to get raised. so by doing this on the turn you first explain with the c/r on the flop that you have something and it's vulnerable and yes it's probably the y on a xxy board, and then you confirm that you plan to show it down as cheaply and carefully as possible by surprising them with a donk check on the turn. so now they go into give up mode with their AK and you find the value bet on the river or whatever.

donk check? it's the same idea as the bet but it's just with a check...

[phish]

The reason you fold hands like 76o pre-flop given that action is so you won't have to face these hard decisions later.

But given that's water under the bridge: seeing that his aggression factor on the turn is 2.8, I'm inclined to call down. He most likely knows you have a 6 and I'd suspect that his read on you is that you are likely to fold for a raise. The odds are that you are beat, so folding isn't a bad option. Fact is, you've put yourself in a tough spot with that pre-flop call.

Perhaps the best play may be to call the turn, and hope he will simply check the river w/ AK or some such, thinking that if you call the turn, you'll also call the river. But muck if he bets the river, since he's unlikely to keep bluffing.

[Nightwish]

[ QUOTE ]
"1000 hands, 20/10/2/44 WSD"

he's a pretty tough customer. he usually has it. fold.
but change the stats a little and maybe this check-call idea is a good one?

[/ QUOTE ]
In this particular case, I agree with Mike that betting the turn and folding to a raise is likely the right strategy. The BB exposed his hand by check-raising the flop, so one could make an argument that the opponent might attempt to exploit this and raise the turn with AK or something like that. And, in fact, it's almost certainly right for him to do this some small fraction of the time. But I think this move requires the opponent to know the BB pretty well and to know that he's at least capable of folding a 6 here. So the bottom line is that I think a TAG CO will very rarely raise the turn with a worse hand.

Now if you make the CO into a LAG, check-calling might now become the correct play because though it would truly suck to get raised on the turn, the BB cannot fold because he's no longer sure that the opponent has him beat. And the best part is that a LAG CO is now far more likely to bet a worse hand when checked to.

Interesting hand!

[mike l.]

sorry i changed my post and added a lot please check it out.

[mike l.]

"The reason you fold hands like 76o pre-flop given that action is so you won't have to face these hard decisions later."

great point except in this case hero was sooooted. so what should he do there? still fold?

[34TheTruth34]

this is interesting. as I was typing my response to you, he played the following hand:

a player open-raised in EMP the following stats:

162/22/15/2.2/44 WSD.

The tough player from the original hand cold called from the CO (?) and I called out of the BB with 86s.

Flop Q-J-4 rainbow

I check, EMP bets, tough player calls, I fold.

Turn 3. EMP checks, tough player bets, EMP calls.

River 4. EMP checks, tough player bets, EMP calls.

Tough player has KTo and EMP takes it with TT.


I must be doing something terribly wrong...

[Nightwish]

[ QUOTE ]
The reason you fold hands like 76o pre-flop given that action is so you won't have to face these hard decisions later.


[/ QUOTE ]
His hand was suited, but I actually agree that even 76s in the BB with a tough CO raiser is a difficult hand to play. You're likely getting 5.5:1, so it's not a terrible call, but it's right on the border because of your position with respect to the TAG.

[ QUOTE ]

But given that's water under the bridge: seeing that his aggression factor on the turn is 2.8, I'm inclined to call down. He most likely knows you have a 6 and I'd suspect that his read on you is that you are likely to fold for a raise.


[/ QUOTE ]
I agree with you that the CO knows that the BB has a 6, but why do you think he's so sure that the BB will fold to a raise? It seems to me that the BB's image at the table is a pretty important factor here.

[mike l.]

first off that guy's not tough he's a donk. he may have some natural skill but he's clearly not at all educated about how to play hold em. in short he's "trying to play well". problem is he has to make it up while he goes. it takes exactly one hand like the KTo to verify this.

secondly the TT guy is on crack as well. a Q and a J are the two most likely cards for a typical mid limit preflop cold caller to have. you check and fold the turn and it's not close.

his turn check is a donk check though.

[34TheTruth34]

[ QUOTE ]
His hand was suited, but I actually agree that even 76s in the BB with a tough CO raiser is a difficult hand to play. You're likely getting 5.5:1, so it's not a terrible call, but it's right on the border because of your position with respect to the TAG.


[/ QUOTE ]

I hadn't thought about this. I just assumed this was a no-brainer call, especially since this player is probably good enough to try to isolate the loose limper with a trash hand.

But even if we somehow knew that the raiser had his normal quality raising hand, I would think this would be giving up way too much folding here.

The best part is, you very rarely get in expensive trouble post flop with this type of hand /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Nightwish]

[ QUOTE ]
this is interesting. as I was typing my response to you, he played the following hand:

a player open-raised in EMP the following stats:

162/22/15/2.2/44 WSD.

The tough player from the original hand cold called from the CO (?) and I called out of the BB with 86s.

Flop Q-J-4 rainbow

I check, EMP bets, tough player calls, I fold.

Turn 3. EMP checks, tough player bets, EMP calls.

River 4. EMP checks, tough player bets, EMP calls.

Tough player has KTo and EMP takes it with TT.


I must be doing something terribly wrong...

[/ QUOTE ]
A few comments here. First, I don't think 86s is playable in that situation for a raise, but whatever. Second, the tough player's preflop call is terrible. If he really wants to play that hand against a slightly LAGgish EMP raiser, he should 3-bet, but this is really an easy fold. Third, do you think the CO would have raised if the EMP guy had bet the turn?

[Nightwish]

[ QUOTE ]
sorry i changed my post and added a lot please check it out.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yup, I like your thinking. I was actually thinking this same thing when I was typing up my post, but it was getting too long anyway, so I decided to just focus on the idea of betting and folding to a raise.

[34TheTruth34]

[ QUOTE ]
First, I don't think 86s is playable in that situation for a raise, but whatever

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe I over-defend my blinds? I never thought I did because my VPIP is so low, but maybe I do. I just see so much raising with crap preflop in this game that it just seems natural to me to scale down the type of hand I'd defend my BB with. Is that correct?


[ QUOTE ]
Second, the tough player's preflop call is terrible

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, I wonder if it was a misclick? You saw his stats, it doesn't appear that he routinely makes these plays by looking at them. But who knows?

[ QUOTE ]
Third, do you think the CO would have raised if the EMP guy had bet the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would guess no. I would think he would raise the flop if he was going to.


This was a very bizarre hand.

[mike l.]

"yeah, I wonder if it was a misclick?"

no. if it were a misclick then it would be some random hand he had not a classic crap cold calling hand like KT.

[Nightwish]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
First, I don't think 86s is playable in that situation for a raise, but whatever

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe I over-defend my blinds? I never thought I did because my VPIP is so low, but maybe I do. I just see so much raising with crap preflop in this game that it just seems natural to me to scale down the type of hand I'd defend my BB with. Is that correct?

[/ QUOTE ]
That is correct, but there are two things that you'd like to see. First, you'd like the players that have position on you in that hand to be idiots, not TAGs. This is because your hand is pretty weak, and you want to compensate for it with implied odds. That is, you want these people betting and calling incorrectly when you actually do make your straight or flush. Second, I personally would like to see at least one other player in there for a hand like 86s. But many others here will disagree.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Second, the tough player's preflop call is terrible

[/ QUOTE ]
yeah, I wonder if it was a misclick? You saw his stats, it doesn't appear that he routinely makes these plays by looking at them. But who knows?

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think it was a misclick. His VP$IP is 20 and his WTSD is 44. This tells me that he likes calling with marginal hands and then not letting go. I don't think he's really as good as you seem to think he is.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Third, do you think the CO would have raised if the EMP guy had bet the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]
I would guess no. I would think he would raise the flop if he was going to.

[/ QUOTE ]
He very well may have. I suspect that this guy was planning to raise either the flop or the turn and is simply mixing it up as to which street he raises (assuming the turn was a blank, of course). But who knows.

[34TheTruth34]

[ QUOTE ]
if it were a misclick then it would be some random hand he had not a classic crap cold calling hand like KT.

[/ QUOTE ]

fair enough. while you are here, how bad (if at all) are my preflop calls?

[mike l.]

those preflop calls are correct. you are getting the right price to play those for one more bet. they are pretty close to the edge though, anything much worse and you must muck. suited is important too.

btw a proven obvious better player may come in and correct me on all that. meaning no one who has posted yet in this thread.

[mike l.]

"Second, I personally would like to see at least one other player in there for a hand like 86s."

prudent but perhaps too prudent.

[DpR]

[ QUOTE ]
first off that guy's not tough he's a donk. he may have some natural skill but he's clearly not at all educated about how to play hold em. in short he's "trying to play well". problem is he has to make it up while he goes. it takes exactly one hand like the KTo to verify this.

secondly the TT guy is on crack as well. a Q and a J are the two most likely cards for a typical mid limit preflop cold caller to have. you check and fold the turn and it's not close.

his turn check is a donk check though.

[/ QUOTE ]

1010 should check fold the turn after gettign no resistance thus far? No way.

[mike l.]

"1010 should check fold the turn after gettign no resistance thus far? No way."

so the TT played it perfect? youll have to explain yourself. please pay attention to this part especially because it's the crux of my argument:

"a Q and[/or] a J are the two most likely cards for a typical mid limit preflop cold caller to have."

[RunningSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
secondly the TT guy is on crack as well. a Q and a J are the two most likely cards for a typical mid limit preflop cold caller to have. you check and fold the turn and it's not close.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you give the KT-guy a reasonable range given the preflop CC and flop call, TT still has reasonable pot equity on the flop:

Board: Qc Jd 4s

Hand 1: 47.2577 % [ 00.47 00.00 ] { TT }
Hand 2: 52.7423 % [ 00.52 00.00 ] { 88-22, AJs-ATs, KQs-K9s, QJs, JTs-J9s, T9s, AJo-ATo, KQo-K9o, QJo-QTo, JTo-J9o, T9o }

and turn:

Board: Qc Jd 4s 3h

Hand 1: 45.4308 % [ 00.45 00.00 ] { TT }
Hand 2: 54.5692 % [ 00.55 00.00 ] { 88-22, AJs-ATs, KQs-K9s, QJs, JTs-J9s, T9s, AJo-ATo, KQo-K9o, QJo-QTo, JTo-J9o, T9o }

Clearly his hand is too good to check-fold so the question becomes bet-fold, bet-call or check-call.

bet-fold is ok except that a lot of the time the opponent may make this raise with a hands like 55 that wants to fold out over cards and take a free showdown if called

bet-call is so-so. if you call the turn raise you may be faced with another river bet that you should probably fold to.

check-call seems to work pretty well. the opponent is reasonably aggressive so he will probably bet a straight draw as a semi-bluff. additionally he will most likely value-bet/protect his hand vs something like AK if he has a small pair.


On the river it is close between betting out and check-calling. I like check-calling again because it gives the opponent a chance to bet busted straigh draws and he may mistakenly bet smaller PP for value.

[mike l.]

well there ya go then. so check call down with TT on a QJxxx board after they smooth call the flop? and the stats are 20/10/2 after 1000 hands. ok ill go give that a try. not.

[RunningSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
well there ya go then. so check call down with TT on a QJxxx board after they smooth call the flop? and the stats are 20/10/2 after 1000 hands. ok ill go give that a try. not.

[/ QUOTE ]

What part of my orignial arguement do you find flawed?

TT still had a 45% pot equity given a fairly reasonable hand range for the CO.

Surely you dont advocated folding w/ 45% equity? do you think the preflop CC hand range is off?

[Justin A]

FWIW villain's line is my default line with AK.

[mike l.]

"do you think the preflop CC hand range is off?"

he's a lot more likely to have certain hands than he is to have other hands. also we need to examine the way the cold caller played the flop. it narrows his hand range down. it isnt that he cant have 22 there it's that he's much less likely to have that than say JT, QT, QJ, KJ, and other very popular broadway cold calling combinations. your calculations dont account for that, they just say that each hand has an equal chance of being out there (of course taking into account the combinations possible of each hand).

[RunningSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
it isnt that he cant have 22 there it's that he's much less likely to have that than say JT, QT, QJ, KJ, and other very popular broadway cold calling combinations. your calculations dont account for that, they just say that each hand has an equal chance of being out there

[/ QUOTE ]

i guess i just dont see a guy who is bad enough to CC an EP raise with KTo finding a fold with 22 in this spot.

On the turn the pot is 4.25 BB. If we assume he bets both streets when checked to we are getting 6.25:2 to call down. Which means we only have to have the best hand about 25% of the time to make a call down correct.

Even if you skew the hand range to make small pairs less likely, it still seems like your hand is too good to check-fold on the turn.

[DpR]

Whether the 101 played it perfect of not is of no issue. The point was that you suggested he should check fold the turn with 1010 to an opponent that has done nothing but cold call preflop and then call a flop bet.

I also don't necessarily agree that Q & J are the most likley holding for a cold caller. What hands are those? The only hand I MIGHT cold call there are QJs and JTs (the former much more likley then the latter). I much more often see pocket pairs in that scenario.

Regardless, even if I wouldn't cc with them, hands like A10s, Axs, K10s and any pair are all possible hends there, Im not just going to give the pot to him. I would be much more concered about a Q or J if a 16/9/2 type player limped UTG - then I am immediately thinking KQo.

All that said, I actually do not hate the way 1010 played it. While I would probably bet the turn, I can easily understand the 1010 being confused by the flop call. What hands only call that flop? Its tough to figure one. That said it would be tough to call down after a turn raise - which easily could be a move. If we assume the opponent will almost always bet when we check to him on the turn (which may or may not be the case) then we lose little.

At the end of the day I like betting or check/calling the turn way better than check folding.

[ike]

It is a nobrainer call. So is the 86s. Closing the action from the BB, or when the remaining players never limprr, nearly any, if not any, two suited cards can be called. When they're both over 6 its not close.

[DanZ]

This kind of play comes up VERY often in hi-lo games, where any pot that's 3 or more players will often get capped on each street up to (and perhaps including) the end. It can be useful in a 1 - winner games, however, both when you are drawing (esp. if pairing can also win) and when you have a vulnerable "made" mediocrity in a large pot.

It will come up much more often in a holdem if the game is agressive, and particularly loose-aggressive. There are several reasons for this. Perhaps there's an essay here somewhere...