Marginal push $55

[microbet]

Don't infer anything from it's being posted. I just decided to go through a tourney I played and post anything I did or didn't do that was either stupid or marginal. I think this was marginal. My table image has not been destroyed yet. Which way would you go?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

CO (t955)
Button (t1645)
SB (t3775)
BB (t1480)
UTG (t1115)
Hero (t1030)

Preflop: Hero is MP with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">Folded to here</font> Hero?

[lastchance]

I go fold, because I hate QTo.

[johnnybeef]

I push this about 50% of the time.

[Onaflag]

With 4.5 M, the advantage of first-in vigorish, and the reality that the blind is coming soon which will set your M back, this is a clear red zone push.

/images/graemlins/grin.gif Guess what I'm reading today?

Onaflag.......

[zaphod]

[ QUOTE ]
With 4.5 M, the advantage of first-in vigorish, and the reality that the blind is coming soon which will set your M back, this is a clear red zone push.

/images/graemlins/grin.gif Guess what I'm reading today?

Onaflag.......

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know this M stuff, I only think in blocks /images/graemlins/wink.gif

I would push this hand close to everytime. I will like to make a move before the blind hit me, while i still have some FE.

[The Yugoslavian]

I'd fold but this depends heavily on SB and BB...

Yugoslav

[Ryendal]

Why do you push here ?

[ChuckNorris]

[ QUOTE ]
With 4.5 M, the advantage of first-in vigorish, and the reality that the blind is coming soon which will set your M back, this is a clear red zone push.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't push it, but I admit it's close and might be a push against very tight opponents.. But to say that it's a clear push? Wow. HOH2 (or your interpretation of it) is wack.

[Newt_Buggs]

When are the blinds going up? Despite the push monkey that I am I'm usually folding this. I don't think that the marginal situational +EV is worth getting a head start on ruining your image. Given the right blind/table combination I would definitly push this though.

[curtains]

I would never ever push here 2 off the button with 7x the BB. I don't think its at all marginal.

[Newt_Buggs]

are you concerned that your opponents will be loose enough that pushing won't be enough +EV, that its not worth hurting your image over, or is it something else?

[Moonsugar]

Just how tight do you think these people are. All these question seem to be rooted in the assumption that the 55 players are super tight. Is your image THAT good?

[curtains]

I just dont think its +ev from 2 off the button and 7x the BB. Number of players left to act is very important as well as strength of hand. Meaning it's usually better to steal from the cutoff than 2 off button, much better to steal from button than cutoff and also much better to steal from the SB than the button. Each of these differences are usually quite signifigant and not to be taken lightly.

[ChuckNorris]

[ QUOTE ]
Number of players left to act is very important as well as strength of hand. Meaning it's usually better to steal from the cutoff than 2 off button, much better to steal from button than cutoff and also much better to steal from the SB than the button. Each of these differences are usually quite signifigant and not to be taken lightly.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not understanding the dramatic importance of position when stealing has been perhaps the biggest leak in my game. It's so easy to estimate ($)ev for pushes from the small blind, but for example in situations where there are five players to act and you have 5BB utg I find it very difficult to figure out even remotely approximate pushing ranges.

[microbet]

No other position is even close to SB, which is why it is so often good to push from SB with any two, but there certainly is the counterbalance of getting more respect from an early position raise.

My totally unscientific impression is that I am much less likely to find myself getting called with by a weak hand when I'm pushing from farther out.

I'm still not saying that farther out is better. Just that it is mitigating.

[11t]

Let her fly baby, there aren't any super desperate shorties left to act and the BB isn't gonna want to call off his stack. Sucks if somebody wakes up to a hand but I don't think you really want to take another round of blinds.

I make a lot of ridiculous pushes like this though at the turbo tournaments on stars and it is probably my biggest leak but the blinds going up every 5 minutes vs 10 hands could have something to do with it.

PS People infer way too much from hands being posted IMO.

PPS I like the use of the word "infer"

[11t]

Yah I sort of agree, I find myself being called by complete rags out of the BB when I push from the SB than when I push from MP when it is folded to me. However I definitely agree that it is far more risky pushing from earlier positions when people could wake up with hands.

I just hate when I push with 74os from the SB and some fool calls me with QJ and they say "I knew you were bluffing"

[ilya]

I would definitely fold.

Actually I would even fold this in the CO.

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
Number of players left to act is very important as well as strength of hand.

[/ QUOTE ] I would say that number of players left to act is the most important thing. Terrible push. Not even close.

With 4 players left to act, you will get called about 30-40% of the time (top 10% for each hand), and you will be a dog most of those times that you are called.

I think if you run the numbers, you will see that pushing 32o from the button is better than pushing QTo from MP.

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Number of players left to act is very important as well as strength of hand.

[/ QUOTE ] I would say that number of players left to act is the most important thing. Terrible push. Not even close.

With 4 players left to act, you will get called about 30-40% of the time (top 10% for each hand), and you will be a dog most of those times that you are called.

I think if you run the numbers, you will see that pushing 32o from the button is better than pushing QTo from MP.

[/ QUOTE ]

For example, let’s say that you will get called by the top 10% of hands: 66+, AT+, KQ. This is a pretty tight range. QsTh wins 32% of the time against these hands. With 4 players left to act, there is a 35% chance that one of your 4 opponents will have one of these hands and will call you.

Folding this: 11.84% of the prize pool (ICM)

Pushing this:
65% of the time: You increase your stack to 1180. 14.06% of the prize pool
11.2%: You are called and you win. 21.8% of the prize pool
23.9%: You are called and you lose. 0% of the prize pool.
Total: 11.55% of the prize pool

The numbers get worse, of course, if we loosen the calling ranges (and remember, you’re going up against a big stack).

In order for this to be a break-even proposition, you need a hand that wins 35.4% of the time against these hands. A7s+, ATo+, 22+

3 players left to act

Let’s say there are only 3 players left to act. There is a 27% chance that you will get called. In that case, you need a hand that will win 27.1% of the time in a showdown.
The range of hands that will make this a break-even propositon: Any ace, Any king, Any pair, Any 2 suited cards, Q4o+, J6o+, T6o+, 95o+, 85o+, 74o+, 64o+, 53o+, 43o+ (remember that we are assuming a tight calling range from your opponents).

2 players left to act

There is a 19% chance you will get called. The range of hands that will make this a break-even proposition: Any 2

QTo in MP vs. 72o on the button

For example, let’s say you have 72o on the button. You will win 24.5% of the time in a showdown:

Folding this: 11.84% of the prize pool (ICM)

Pushing this:
81% of the time: You increase your stack to 1180. 14.06% of the prize pool
4.6%: You are called and you win. 21.8% of the prize pool
14.3%: You are called and you lose. 0% of the prize pool.
Total: 12.4% of the prize pool

In other words, pushing 72o from the button is much more profitable than pushing QTo from middle position. When stealing blinds, position is much more critical than the strength of your hand.

[Unarmed]

Wow...I push this exactly 0% of the time.
I'd probably let er rip from the CO, but I wouldn't feel real good about it.

Micro, you should really grab eastbay's tool and play with it for awhile. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Sorry... Really though, pick up a copy of SNGPT, best 79 bucks I ever spent.

[djj6835]

I think folding this in the CO is a mistake. I would most likely push in the CO against typical opponents. I would fold QT in the OP's position though.

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
For example, let’s say that you will get called by the top 10% of hands: 66+, AT+, KQ. This is a pretty tight range. QsTh wins 32% of the time against these hands. With 4 players left to act, there is a 35% chance that one of your 4 opponents will have one of these hands and will call you.

Folding this: 11.84% of the prize pool (ICM)

Pushing this:
65% of the time: You increase your stack to 1180. 14.06% of the prize pool
11.2%: You are called and you win. 21.8% of the prize pool
23.9%: You are called and you lose. 0% of the prize pool.
Total: 11.55% of the prize pool

The numbers get worse, of course, if we loosen the calling ranges (and remember, you’re going up against a big stack).

In order for this to be a break-even proposition, you need a hand that wins 35.4% of the time against these hands. A7s+, ATo+, 22+

[/ QUOTE ]

That's pretty close, and I think you are making the stacks that aren't in the blinds a little too loose.

I think this is pretty close to $0 $EV-wise.

I'm not advocating this push (I don't think it's horrible though), so I'm certainly not saying the following quote makes it right. Just in general, I have been more successful stealing blinds from early position than I might have expected before I opened up on them a bit. Most of the time I'm just doing a standard raise with a playable hand.

[ QUOTE ]
Avoid the standard steal spots as the short stack, UTG, CO, button and small blind, players will call your raises with marginal holdings from those spots.

When you are a middle stack, or average stack at your table(not necassarily average for the whole tourney) your steal spots are UTG, and co-1. But of course you can still raise from the button and sb without worrying about getting called nearly as much as a short stack.

-Gigabet


[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't exactly fit, but my stack was between short and middle.

Again, I don't play on someone else's model, but there are a few things that people have posted that I generally keep in mind (not necessarily intentionally, they just stuck). Gigabet has two of them. One was from this post about stealing from OOP and the other was to think about every decision. Lorinda gets her 3:16. Irie gets "Be the wisest on the bubble." I'll give Curtains and Eastbay a joint credit for just trying to make sure I'm not exploitable.

[microbet]

I know you're just teasing - no prob.

I posted because I wasn't in love with the push myself - after the fact.

I think it is pretty close to $0 $EV by ICM. I think the players out of the blinds will be pretty tight here.

I have Eastbay's program and use it a lot. My version doesn't have the new blind levels on it though.

[vinyard]

[ QUOTE ]
In other words, pushing 72o from the button is much more profitable than pushing QTo from middle position. When stealing blinds, position is much more critical than the strength of your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep. I would much rather push have to push 56o on the button than to push QTo with 4 players including a huge stack left to act.

I would like to here what others think is a reasonable pushing range here; mine is 88+ (possibly 77), AT+ and KQs.

[microbet]

Seemed to me that the general OOP push concept would get more responses, especially when I invoked Gigabet. Bump.

I'm starting to datamine and one of the things I'm going to look at is calling standands and position. I'll report if I ever find anything out.

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
Seemed to me that the general OOP push concept would get more responses, especially when I invoked Gigabet. Bump.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you had put PVS in the title, this thread would already have flames /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I like the quote from Giga, I don't remember reading that one... must have missed it. However, I don't think it applies at the $55 level that well. Weak players are still going to look down and see ATo, think you're full of it, and click the call button too often.

[Unarmed]

My preferred stealing spot with any stack is SB.
I know what Gig's trying to say, but you really have to narrow calling ranges a good deal to make up for introducing even ONE more person to act after you.

[microbet]

Yeah, clearly it is the best spot. But, it can't be the ONLY spot. At a lot of tables you NEVER get the chance to be first in from the SB.

[MegaBet]

Very easy fold. You are nowhere near desperate yet. Q10o is only slighty better than average, and you have 4 people to act.

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, clearly it is the best spot. But, it can't be the ONLY spot. At a lot of tables you NEVER get the chance to be first in from the SB.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I'm missing something. Correct me if I'm wrong but:

The best spot to push from is the SB.
The second best spot to push from is the button.
The third best spot is the CO.
Etc, etc.

Perhaps pushing from the CO is only slightly worse than pushing from the button due to perceptions of hand strength, but I'd be shocked if the narrowed call range effect is EVER large enough to fully make up for the addition of one more potential caller.

[curtains]

btw I would NEVER push this from the cutoff seat. On the button I would push every time however.

[Matt R.]

I'm pretty much reiterating what's been said already, but I fold and it's very close. I've got to think that everyone's calling range will tighten up since you're pushing from MP. Without a read on a player pushing from MP with your stack, I know I would tighten up considerably. But then again, I play the $22's and have only played like 3 $55's ever, so I don't know exactly what the calling ranges would typically be. I think pushing might be okay since BB will be nearly crippled if he calls and loses -- out of curiousity, what hands do you think BB would call with? If I were in his shoes, I'd find it hard pressed to call with a hand as strong as AJo, but then again I play the $22's so I like to avoid marginal calls without a read.

Edit -- By the way, saying it's close is based solely on the fact that BB only has ~600 chips left if he calls and loses, but I still think it's a fold since you're pushing into 4 people.

[microbet]

I'm basically down with the standard that you need better hands, the further OOP you get. But, I wouldn't be shocked if this were wrong sometimes. It seems possible to me that in some situations you will get called less often from further out of position.

I have started collecting data and if anyone wants to help, PM me.

[arod15]

Go on your feel of the players. Have they been tight? Have they been agressive? Based on that it should be easy to decide whether to push or not. In this situation id consider pushing although i hate the fact the people acting after you have big stacks but blinds are sneaking up adn you dont want to get bubbled make a stance now. Build your stack.