KK-hand

[MoDOH]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

My third hand at the table. so no reads...



Button ($162.93)
SB ($196)
Hero ($203.92)
UTG ($403.7)
MP ($202.15)
CO ($30)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif. SB posts a blind of $1. CO posts a blind of $3.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $10</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB (poster) raises to $29</font>, Hero calls $28, UTG folds.

Flop: ($73) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

He bet out 100 and I went all-in...

Turn: ($73) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: ($73) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: $73

[Zukeman66]

I would shove all-in preflop here. The only hand that your not dominating is AA, and you're going to get all your money in anyways after the flop since an A isn't likely to hit.

[PoBoy321]

Eh, I'm just not sure here. I hate the open-push from the reraiser. The only thing I can think he might do this with is JJ if he's overaggro, but that seems unlikely. Folding KK might seem weak here, but I might do it.

[sammy_g]

i'm tempted to say raise preflop, but it's tough because any normal-size raise puts half your stack in before the flop. an all-in on the other hand will only be called by AA or another KK or a bad player. so i can't fault you for flat calling preflop, hoping to get the money in after the flop if an ace doesn't fall.

since you called, you have to close your eyes and push on the flop. you only have to be right less than half the time, and i'm not convinced yet it's AA or QQ.

since you posted the hand, i suspect you lost, but i think you played it right. tough one.

[MoDOH]

[ QUOTE ]
i'm tempted to say raise preflop, but it's tough because any normal-size raise puts half your stack in before the flop. an all-in on the other hand will only be called by AA or another KK or a bad player. so i can't fault you for flat calling preflop, hoping to get the money in after the flop if an ace doesn't fall.

[/ QUOTE ]

That pretty much sums up my thinking preflop...

[ QUOTE ]
since you called, you have to close your eyes and push on the flop. you only have to be right less than half the time, and i'm not convinced yet it's AA or QQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

My only hope really after the flop came Q-high is that villain has an overplayed AK or JJ and frankly I don´t think that is especially likely.since I didn´t have a read on villain though I closed my eyes and pushed. In retrospect I don´t think it was the right move, and i´m not being resultsoriented...

[ QUOTE ]
since you posted the hand, i suspect you lost, but i think you played it right. tough one.

[/ QUOTE ]

villain did indeed flip over AA...

Am I way off and just being really weak if I think I should have folded on the flop here? i have only invested 30 bucks in this pot and I really think that without a solid read I can find better spots to invest a further 170 bucks.
Now had the flop came J-high instead I think pushing is the right move but Q-high... I don´t know...

[Finite_Risk]

Same thing has happened twice tonight to me ("Smell the rat" post recently - he had AA)

Really dont know how to get away from KK here - how weak tight do you have to be to assume they have aces here?

[sammy_g]

[ QUOTE ]
Am I way off and just being really weak if I think I should have folded on the flop here? i have only invested 30 bucks in this pot and I really think that without a solid read I can find better spots to invest a further 170 bucks.

[/ QUOTE ]
i understand what you're saying, but you really should look at it as "should i wager $167 to win $240?" it's simply a math problem if you know your opponent's range of hands in this spot.

i'm relatively new to no limit, so the ranges i'm about to offer might be off.


possible opponent holdings:

AA - 6 combos
KK - 1 combo
QQ - 2 combos
JJ - 6 combos
AK - 8 combos
AQ - 12 combos


weighted opponent holdings:

to make things easy, let's say your opponent will make this play 1/4 of the time with AK and 1/3 of the time with JJ. 3/4 of the time he folds or just calls preflop with AQ preflop. the rest of the time (1/4), he'll play AQ this way.

AA - 6 times
KK - 1 time
QQ - 2 times
JJ - 2 times
AK - 2 times
AQ - 3 times

total combinations = 6 + 1 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 3 = 16


EV against each hand:

AA: 0.08 * 407 = 32.56 - 167 = -$134.44 EV
KK: 73/2 = +$36.5 EV
QQ: 0.18 * 407 = 73.26 - 167 = -$134.44 EV
JJ: 0.92 * 407 = 374.44 - 167 = +$207.44 EV
AK: 0.84 * 407 = 341.88 - 167 = +$174.88 EV
AQ: 0.78 * 407 = 317.46 - 167 = +$150.46 EV


EV of moving in:

((6 * -134.44) + (1 * 36.5) + (2 * -134.44) + (2 * 207.44) + (2 * 174.88) + (3 * 150.46)) / (6 + 1 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 3) combinations =

(-806.64 + 36.5 + -268.88 + 414.88 + 349.76 + 451.38) / 16 combinations =

$176.93 / 16 combinations =

+$11.06 EV


the expected value of this play is +$11.06 according to my calculations /images/graemlins/smile.gif

it's close. change some assumptions and this might swing to a fold, although i've tried to error on the pessimistic side. for instance, if you think he will never play AK or JJ this way, it's a fold. than again, if you think he might also try this with TT or 99 or somesuch, then the call is even more clear. i think it's a mistake to assume villain will never bluff here.

it's also possible i made some mistakes in my math.

i hope this makes you feel a little better, though. next time you should perform these calculations during the hand so you know what the correct play is.

[sammy_g]

ok some more numbers. i was curious how often villain would need to play AQ this way for the push to be correct if he never bluffed.


possible opponent holdings:

AA - 6 combos
KK - 1 combo
QQ - 2 combos
AQ - 12 combos


EV against each hand:

AA: 0.08 * 407 = 32.56 - 167 = -$134.44 EV
KK: 73/2 = +$36.5 EV
QQ: 0.08 * 407 = 32.56 - 167 = -$134.44 EV
AQ: 0.78 * 407 = 317.46 - 167 = +$150.46 EV


how often must villain play AQ?

0 = ((6 * -134.44) + (1 * 36.5) + (2 * -134.44) + (n * 150.46))

0 = (-806.64 + 36.5 + -268.88 + 150.46 * n)

0 = 150.46 * n - 1039.02

n = 1039.02 / 150.46

n = 6.9

6.9 / 12 combinations = 57.5%


even if villain never bluffs, he only needs to play AQ this way (in a 6 handed game) a little over half the time for your push to be correct.

i don't see how you can fold.

[vulturesrow]

Id have to have a dead on read to fold this one. And I am not good enough to have a dead on read. /images/graemlins/smile.gif I appreciate the math that was shown. Basically my thinking is the times he is holding AA is far outweighed by the times I have him dead in the water. Id rather him flip over AA then have him flip over AJ or some other bs hand that people like to make crazy moves with at these limits.

[fuzzbox]

SBs who make this play usually have AA/KK/QQ. On the flop, you cant beat any of those hands. Its really a horrible spot for KK.
Im not sure if I keep my stack here either .... because ... its KK after all.

[fuzzbox]

I think AQ should be removed from this calculation. And I think JJ / AK are likely to freeze-up after some1 flat calls such a big reraise on that flop.