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11t
07-03-2005, 03:40 PM
Anybody fold here? SB's range is any two but is this really maximizing my win rate?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (3 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t2950)
Button (t615)
SB (t9935)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t1800</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t2900

runner4life7
07-03-2005, 03:43 PM
I would go all in as well, not sure if it is right or not, but if you win then you are close to being even with the chip leader giving you an actualy shot at 1st.

lastchance
07-03-2005, 04:47 PM
I don't think so.

johnnybeef
07-03-2005, 05:02 PM
i fold all but aa and kk here.

Karak567
07-03-2005, 05:11 PM
[ QUOTE ]
i fold all but aa and kk here.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're kidding, right?

I beat him to the pot here, push it.

11t
07-03-2005, 05:29 PM
He is getting like 4:1 to call though, he isn't folding anything.

runner4life7
07-03-2005, 05:30 PM
yes, but he was hoping youd fold because of the low stack, I play for first, if you want to play for 2nd that is fine by me.

11t
07-03-2005, 05:33 PM
I'm talking about maximizing my win-rate over the long term and what is the smartest thing to do here

johnnybeef
07-03-2005, 05:40 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i fold all but aa and kk here.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're kidding, right?

I beat him to the pot here, push it.

[/ QUOTE ]

lets think about this one before we say "oh oh oh, ive got an ace with a decent kicker and im being pushed into in a 3 handed pot," as that is what donks do (and we all know that 2+2ers aren't donks.) while it is true that you are holding a pretty decent hand here (and you are likely ahead), you are so infrequently way ahead with this holding, that folding here is correct due to the payout structure, and the short stack being all in on the next hand.

johnnybeef
07-03-2005, 05:43 PM
[ QUOTE ]
yes, but he was hoping youd fold because of the low stack, I play for first, if you want to play for 2nd that is fine by me.

[/ QUOTE ]

even if you double up on this hand, you are still at a pretty big chip disadvantage. thus, first place is going to be a difficult achievement. think of it as being unattainable, and then redetermine what you are playing for.

donny5k
07-03-2005, 06:08 PM
Let's say the payouts are 20/30/50. I'd say you have about $34 expectation calling (let's say 2-1 to win, about $42 expectation when you win, $20 when you lose) and if you fold the short stack will bust the vast majority of the time. So it's probably safe to say your expectation is more than $34 since you are almost guaranteed $30 and you'll have only a 3 or 4 to 1 chip disadvantage going into heads up. And sometimes you'll bust the short stack if he doesnt play on the button. So no, I probably fold here.

Karak567
07-03-2005, 06:28 PM
[ QUOTE ]
while it is true that you are holding a pretty decent hand here (and you are likely ahead), you are so infrequently way ahead with this holding, that folding here is correct due to the payout structure, and the short stack being all in on the next hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't play for 2nd, sorry. That's what donks do.

Easy, easy push.

And yes it is "ooh ooh I have an ace." It's 3 handed, AT, and you fold? what!?

ewing55
07-03-2005, 09:30 PM
I'd probably push here also EXCEPT SB has said "Hey, I really like my hand, wanna chance going out in 3rd?"

I would stop and think about my read on SB. If here was playing pretty well, I'd be more likely to think this was just a steal, otherwise he really likes his hand and I'm folding into 2nd.

ATo is a pretty good hand against a random hand, 59% against a top 50% hand and only about 50/50 against a top 25% hand.

I'd have to have a pretty good read to push this.

-------------Jeff

11t
07-03-2005, 09:32 PM
I stated his range was any 2 cards

microbet
07-03-2005, 09:42 PM
5900 to 6985 is not a huge disadvantage.

Still, you have to be tight here. ATo isn't good enough. But, I think folding QQ would be bad. Big stack is probably pretty loose here and I think a call is good with JJ+ and maybe AK.

edit: You can never be sure his range is any two. A lot of very aggressive people here will still let really bad hands go. But, if you assume he goes with any two, you can add some more PPs to about 77 or 88 and AQs. Still, not ATo.

Benholio
07-03-2005, 10:11 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
while it is true that you are holding a pretty decent hand here (and you are likely ahead), you are so infrequently way ahead with this holding, that folding here is correct due to the payout structure, and the short stack being all in on the next hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't play for 2nd, sorry. That's what donks do.

Easy, easy push.

And yes it is "ooh ooh I have an ace." It's 3 handed, AT, and you fold? what!?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, what if the shortstack had 15 chips instead of 615?
What if he had 115 chips? 215 chips? While of course 'playing for first' is what you are usually doing, you can't just blindly gamble 3-handed without considering relative stack sizes.

Karak567
07-04-2005, 01:02 AM
I still really can't believe you guys are advocating folding ATo here. What happened to gamble for first, settle for third?

I think folding ATo here is really bad, and I'll leave it at that.

adanthar
07-04-2005, 01:15 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I still really can't believe you guys are advocating folding ATo here. What happened to gamble for first, settle for third?

[/ QUOTE ]

"Gamble for the most +$EV"

I'd eyeball it, think 'yep, fold' and then fold.

johnnybeef
07-04-2005, 02:21 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I don't play for 2nd, sorry. That's what donks do.

Easy, easy push.

And yes it is "ooh ooh I have an ace." It's 3 handed, AT, and you fold? what!?

[/ QUOTE ]

ok pal, i was originally going to explain to you why this is such an easy fold, but i realized that you called me a donk. so instead, im going to leave it at this: folding is clearly the correct play here, the reasoning behind why it is correct is something that only an expert tournament player understands.

microbet
07-04-2005, 03:11 AM
I totally agree with you about the OP.

But, you said you only call with AA and KK.

Mostly to be a pain, I'm gonna have to call you out on QQ.

I think JJ is debatable, but a good call and possibly a couple more hands, depending on how aggressive villian is.

I request you cave on QQ.

ilya
07-04-2005, 03:52 AM
Yes, I fold, although it's somewhat close. I don't think calling is a HUGE mistake.

I would call with AK, AQs, AA-88.

Bigwig
07-04-2005, 04:01 AM
I fold.

Immediately.

Bigwig
07-04-2005, 04:09 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i fold all but aa and kk here.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're kidding, right?

I beat him to the pot here, push it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Awful.

I beg many posters to pay attention to Adanthar, Curtains, Apathy, Raptor, and many others who would explain more clearly than I could to fold this.

And, it's not close.

MeanGreenTT
07-04-2005, 09:22 AM
Forgive me 'cause I'm still new and always learning but may I take a shot, moreso just to satisfy my own curiosity if I'm on the right track here....

Is advocating the fold centered around the chip stack sizes and the fact that the Button will be blinded out on the next 2 hands and you can pick a better spot? Thanks

Karak567
07-04-2005, 11:31 AM
I guess I suck /images/graemlins/mad.gif

ok you guys convinced me, haha

11t
07-04-2005, 11:34 AM
Live and learn.

microbet
07-04-2005, 11:40 AM
Mostly that. You are pretty close to having 2nd place locked up. Doubling up hardly guarantees first place. Put those together and you need a bit better reason than AT.

johnnybeef
07-04-2005, 11:46 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I totally agree with you about the OP.

But, you said you only call with AA and KK.

Mostly to be a pain, I'm gonna have to call you out on QQ.

I think JJ is debatable, but a good call and possibly a couple more hands, depending on how aggressive villian is.

I request you cave on QQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

I did an icm on a slightly similar situation, and I figured that JJ+ and AK would be my calling range (I was way off). Depending upon his push range, AK and JJ were both always -$EV, and QQ was very dependent, as many people will push any king or ace in this situation. I think the only way that QQ became very profitable was if they are pushing any two or somewhere near that. So without being at the table and knowing for sure that he is pushing any two, I will fold QQ until then.