stars $114 turbo - big draw on the bubble

[augie00]

Am I a sissy?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB (t1620)
UTG (t2820)
Button (t4625)
Hero (t4435)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t400</font>, Hero calls t300, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (t1000) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets t1000</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t2000

[Nacarno]

This is just me, but if I decide to play T9 against the chip leader at this point in the game, I'm not playing it to fold a monster draw on the flop where I'm probably the favorite. So basically, I'd push, but in general I'd fold PF.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
This is just me, but if I decide to play T9 against the chip leader at this point in the game, I'm not playing it to fold a monster draw on the flop where I'm probably the favorite. So basically, I'd push, but in general I'd fold PF.

[/ QUOTE ]

basically what i was going to say. why call PF if you're going to fold the perfect flop.

[11t]

Yes, you play poker like a girl.

I c/r here 100% of the time but I'd fold if he dumped his stack.

[augie00]

[ QUOTE ]
basically what i was going to say. why call PF if you're going to fold the perfect flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because the villain is showing strength and is probably not going to fold. It's obvious I have to play for all of my chips, right?

Does everyone always feel so comfortable flipping a coin w/ the big stack right on the bubble?

[kyro]

My point is. I think if you're only going to play this if you flop hard, AND you get a chance to c/r with some FE, then you should fold it, because those two scenarios won't happen nearly enough.

[augie00]

[ QUOTE ]
My point is. I think if you're only going to play this if you flop hard, AND you get a chance to c/r with some FE, then you should fold it, because those two scenarios won't happen nearly enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you think the play in this hand is to fold pf for 200 more?

[flyingmoose]

If you double through this guy, you can basically put a bow around the tournament and mail it to yourself. You're a favorite over pretty much everything. I don't see how you're getting away from this.

Plus, I think you have SOME fold equity by pushing. Even if it's small, there is a chance he's folding.

[pokerlaw]

[ QUOTE ]
If you double through this guy, you can basically put a bow around the tournament and mail it to yourself. You're a favorite over pretty much everything. I don't see how you're getting away from this.

Plus, I think you have SOME fold equity by pushing. Even if it's small, there is a chance he's folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. his bet could very well be a steal attempt. I you go all in, i think you have some fold equity. If not, you are prob around a coinflip and a win puts you in VERY nice shape.

[augie00]

[ QUOTE ]
Plus, I think you have SOME fold equity by pushing. Even if it's small, there is a chance he's folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

Given my read on this guy, betting 1000 on the flop means he's not folding, at all.

[augie00]

[ QUOTE ]
If not, you are prob around a coinflip and a win puts you in VERY nice shape.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you take into account my opinion that he's not folding here, would you still push?

[pokerlaw]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Plus, I think you have SOME fold equity by pushing. Even if it's small, there is a chance he's folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

Given my read on this guy, betting 1000 on the flop means he's not folding, at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would push then and hope I hit something. btw, did you think about beting the flop. If you get RRed, then you can muck it, or maybe he will just call. i wasn't at the game, but i rarely fold to that 1000 chip bet, i almost always push.

[ClaytonN]

I'd wager you are a distinct favorite against his range of hands, even if he's NOT folding.

And what kyro said

[augie00]

[ QUOTE ]
btw, did you think about beting the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

no. that would be the worst line ever. this is clearly a CR or CF situation.

[ZBTHorton]

Push. Everytime. I don't even really think its close either.

[Spook]

[ QUOTE ]
So you think the play in this hand is to fold pf for 200 more?

[/ QUOTE ]

actually it was 300 more. If you don't feel you have any folding equity, state so at the start of the thread.
and if you are just going to argue and defend your post, just don't post.

[Nacarno]

[ QUOTE ]
So you think the play in this hand is to fold pf for 200 more?

[/ QUOTE ]
If you're only going to stay in if you flop two pair or better... yes.

[HouseBlouse]

Is the 114 turbo a sattelite? If not i push everytime. Even with your read there is still the slight chance that he is bluffing, and if not your probably still ahead, you have 15 outs with two cards to come, that's pretty money. If it is a sattelite and you are playing for some kind of seat and you are on the bubble i would consider folding. Why play for last place money which is nothing compared to first place money, and further more isn't this the flop you paid his raise to see? what were you hoping for? 10-10-9?

[11t]

If he isn't folding I'd let her go, your stack is in too good of shape to take a flip like this on the bubble.

[augie00]

[ QUOTE ]
if you are just going to argue and defend your post, just don't post.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol. i'd call you an idiot, but i'll leave that up to someone else who might enjoy it more. that is the worst thing i've ever read on this forum, ever.

[augie00]

[ QUOTE ]
If he isn't folding I'd let her go, your stack is in too good of shape to take a flip like this on the bubble.

[/ QUOTE ]

You and I may be the only people that aren't ready to give up their entire stack 1 seat out of the money with a 55/45 edge. I wonder if that makes us idiots?

[augie00]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So you think the play in this hand is to fold pf for 200 more?

[/ QUOTE ]
If you're only going to stay in if you flop two pair or better... yes.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't need to flop 2 pair or better to stay in. Why would you assume that? I'm not, however, comfortable going out 4th when i have 4k in chips.

[Nacarno]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't need to flop 2 pair or better to stay in. Why would you assume that? I'm not, however, comfortable going out 4th when i have 4k in chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, my mistake. I assumed it because you've flopped a very strong holding with your T9s and still aren't willing to play. What flops would you be happy with? KT6? Or is it more of a question that the chip leader bet into you? If so, then it becomes a question of your read on how often he will bluff/bet the flop that determines if calling 300 to win the 700 in the pot (assuming the BB folds) is correct. Since you haven't told us about your read of the chip leader before the flop, I can only base my responses on what kinds of hands I'd be willing to play strongly on the flop and I consider your flop to be very good for that particular hand.

[wdcbooks]

Of all the weak tight folds I have seen this may just be the weakest tightest, dare I say pussiest fold I have seen this year. What hands are you worried about You are 55% against AA as well as AK. You have the pot odds to call if he flips over freaking KK!!!

I would rather see the flop you got than something like T22 with that flop you could be way behind an overpair. Here there is nothing you are way behind, and many hands you have a solid advantage over. Not to mention the pot is laying you an even better price.

Finally let's dispel the nonsense about him not folding. Every decent player steals on occasion and there are at least some non-steals he is folding to an all in. We know he doesn't have KK or JJ by the big bet. He may hold something like KT that he would fold to an all in, or even QQ. Come to think of it QQ is a possibility that he would almost certainly fold thinking he is looking at two outs.

Long story short, I would never fold this. He would have to turn over KK or As Qs to convince me to fold. Sorry dude, but this had to be the product of a major brain fart, because math and probability don't support your fold.

[augie00]

So I take it you are cool going out in 4th sitting on 4k in chips?

[Spook]

[ QUOTE ]
So I take it you are cool going out in 4th sitting on 4k in chips?

[/ QUOTE ]

So would you push if you both were even in chips? Covered him by 25?
Where would you need to be stackwise to push here.

[Freudian]

I would push here every time.

Would you push with two Aces? If so, why wouldn't you want to push this?

And I think he is folding a tonne of hands if you push.

[augie00]

[ QUOTE ]
Would you push with two Aces? If so, why wouldn't you want to push this?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would not have smoothcalled a miniraise on the flop with AA. If for some reason I had, I would push. Sure. But AA is a much bigger favorite than 9Ts is here. You can't be serious.

[ QUOTE ]
And I think he is folding a tonne of hands if you push.

[/ QUOTE ]

I specifically said that I do not think i have very much fold equity here, if any. I hope you missed that.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]

I specifically said that I do not think i have very much fold equity here, if any. I hope you missed that.

[/ QUOTE ]

And I specifically said I think you are dead wrong about that.

[augie00]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So I take it you are cool going out in 4th sitting on 4k in chips?

[/ QUOTE ]

So would you push if you both were even in chips? Covered him by 25?
Where would you need to be stackwise to push here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would prefer to cover by at least 600-800 to push here. I want to have one chance to come back if he calls w/ AK or something and I brick. I just don't see any sense putting all my chips at risk w/ such a small edge.

[augie00]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I specifically said that I do not think i have very much fold equity here, if any. I hope you missed that.

[/ QUOTE ]

And I specifically said I think you are dead wrong about that.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the problem with posting hands online. Mathmatically, he doesn't have it every time, sometimes he's bluffing, and sometimes he folds.

But I'm telling you that him betting 1000 into the 1000 pot was a sign of GREAT strength, and I was 100% confident that he's not laying it down. I had little to no fold equity, and that is fact.

[wdcbooks]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I specifically said that I do not think i have very much fold equity here, if any. I hope you missed that.

[/ QUOTE ]

And I specifically said I think you are dead wrong about that.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the problem with posting hands online. Mathmatically, he doesn't have it every time, sometimes he's bluffing, and sometimes he folds.

But I'm telling you that him betting 1000 into the 1000 pot was a sign of GREAT strength, and I was 100% confident that he's not laying it down. I had little to no fold equity, and that is fact.

[/ QUOTE ]

No it isn't a fact. 2+2=4 is a fact. It is not possible to have a read like that playing a Sit and Go. We can extrapolate likely behavior after playing hundreds of these things against thousands of players. We can further categorize our opponent's play and make some guesses as to what they might be holding and how they will play those holdings. There is no type of player besides a complete maniac against whom you have no folding equity. I would accept your read if this was a five hour multi-table, but it is a turbo Sit and Go. `Even if you are correct about the folding equity(which I will never concede) you are almost always a favorite when he calls anyway.

Which is a big part of what you have failed to address. What hand ranges do you put him on here? What flops would you have been willing to put all your money in on? I know that I would likely make a continuation bet here after my preflop raise and I would run you over if you kept folding. Using your criteria that is exactly what you will be doing, folding over and over again until you are no longer a big stack.

You have a great shot here of ensuring at least 1st or 2nd. At some point in poker your money has to join your opponent's money in a pot. It does not accumulate magically. You are being offered a chance to do this in a highly advantageous position. You declined despite a rather large edge in the pot because you didn't want to bubble. Fine with me, but why argue about it as if the fold was correct.

[ekky]

Interesting hand Augie.

My gut reaction is, if I am going to willingly tangle with the big stack with this hand, by calling a 3* BB raise.. I can't justify to myself folding on this flop.

I can certainly understand the reasoning behind folding..good chip stack/not willing to put it all in on a virtual coin-flip etc.. but if this is the case, I cant understand the logic behind the pre-flop call.

Its one thing being forced into seeing the flop and having this decision, (ie unraised blind), but when you actively choose to play a raised pot vs the villain, with this type of hand, it wouldn't seem correct to then fold on this flop.

So, I would definately play here... and if I wasn't willing to play a flop like this, I would not waste 300 chips calling pre flop.

[adanthar]

If he is 100% not folding the flop, the play is simple: call this and then CR or push any turn (whichever has the most FE.) If he's not folding the turn either, I think I'm still calling the flop solely because the implied odds on the turn are his stack.

I'd have folded PF, BTW.

[augie00]

[ QUOTE ]
What hand ranges do you put him on here?

[/ QUOTE ]

While I was thinking of what I should do I did not bother to put him on a specific range of hands, I did not think it was necessary. I knew I was a small favorite over nearly anything he could hold. Key word being small.

[ QUOTE ]
What flops would you have been willing to put all your money in on?

[/ QUOTE ]

This flop is fine to get all my money in on. If the villian had made a smaller bet I would have felt better about CRing him. If I had a shorter stack, I would have felt MUCH better about CRing him. I just think I've got too many chips to go broke here. Combining that with my read on the villain and I think a fold becomes better and better.

[ QUOTE ]
You are being offered a chance to do this in a highly advantageous position

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
rather large edge in the pot

[/ QUOTE ]

If 55/45 is highly adventageous or a rather large edge I'll cut my balls off. I'm serious.

[Spook]

what about the fact that if the villian calls and loses he has about 200 chips left.
Does that not affect how he plays this hand?
he has no fear of busting out?

[augie00]

[ QUOTE ]
what about the fact that if the villian calls and loses he has about 200 chips left.
Does that not affect how he plays this hand?
he has no fear of busting out?

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course it does. Christ. But he's not folding. I already said that.

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
CR or push any turn

[/ QUOTE ]


Well, not Qs.

[wdcbooks]

[ QUOTE ]

If 55/45 is highly adventageous or a rather large edge I'll cut my balls off. I'm serious.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are lucky I have some sharp scissors. This shouldn't hurt much. There is already 1,000 in the pot. It isn't like this is a coinflip in a dry pot. 55/45 with a 1,000 in the pot is signficant. You must be scary good if you can find odds much better than that on a routine basis.

Finally we all realize that you said he wouldn't fold. If wishes were kittens I would be a crazy cat lady. Saying it doesn't make it so. Even if I go against every instinct I have about Sit and Go play and trust your read it can't possibly be 100% correct. You had some fold equity, it may have been small, but it was there.

[partygirluk]

You have to have one HELL of a read to fold this. You are almost certainly a favourite, and I find it hard to believe you have 0% chance of folding if you put him all in. He has a big stack on the bubble, and won't be wanting to tangle with you either. I suspect he folds here a lot more than you think. Not sure about your preflop call either, seems like a fold to me.