150-300 turn decison

[Dave Mac]

Ultimate Bet 150/300 Hold'em (3 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: (8.25 BB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 10.25 BB

i just called, who 3 bets? I really did not want to get capped on the turn, and so i took the easy way out but was it right?
Dave

[Schneids]

3 handed I 3 bet that turn every time.

[flawless_victory]

you must not usually play this high, huh...

[Robb]

Highly opponent dependent. I say that because there are a few where a 3 bet is not a good option (at least I imagine because I don't play 150-300 short). For instance, the flop smoothcall and turn raise always means at least two pair.

But against most I would 3 bet. It's most likely a hand like A10/AJ that didn't want to lose you earlier by showing more strength on the flop.

-------------------------
Also, if you are undecided you could chicken out and call the raise on the turn and lead the river.

Advantage:
1)pay no more than 2 bets (assuming you call a river raise)
2)he may flat call with a weak hand like 88 that he would have folded to the turn 3 bet

Disadvantage: a drawing hand that misses may fold the river netting you zero more bets when you are ahead

[SoSo]

for a bit of variation why not check/call the turn, then c/r the river as opposed to 3-betting the turn. I think this line would be a little different.

[Mikey]

Bet the flop.

[Dave Mac]

lol, I think it is much more complicated than that. Obviously there is a very good chance that I am ahead and he waited for the turn with AJ, AQ etc. But, the game, and that game in general is played very very fast, and most people usaully put in a bunch of bets on the flop with all the good but not huge hands. I would expect all Aces except maybe AK to 3 bet the flop. That is why I cr-ed. I was going to 4 bet a flop but I think it is much more dicy 3 betting the turn.
1) his range of non 2 pair hands is quite small
2) all the times is is bluffing or has a K I lose him.

[Dave Mac]

I don't like the river stop and go only becuase it is pretty heavly used in a lot of higher UB games and is usaully a bigger hand. So a mid. holding will fold even more to a stop and go, I think, than a turn 3 bet. And finally i don't think anyone will miss a river raise. but, maybe i am totally off.
dave

[bobbyi]

In general, if you are going to refuse to three-bet anytime it would be unpleasant to run into a cap, you are going to leave too much on the table playing three-handed because people will raise with such a wide range of hands and most of them are not of legitimate capping strength.

On the specific hand, all you have done is check-raise the flop and lead the turn, which could be any ace or a straight draw or a flush draw, so your opponent could easily call your flop raise and pop you on the turn with a decent ace (or other things). You are definitely ahead often enough to three-bet the turn.

[samdash]

Blowing him off a king on the turn would be best for your hand, yes?

[Robb]

I never said you HAD to chicken out /images/graemlins/grin.gif...

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the river stop and go only becuase it is pretty heavly used in a lot of higher UB games and is usaully a bigger hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
....but if your opponents are thwarting the river S&amp;G by folding than you could increase the frequency of the play -- when holding a few missed draws.

[ QUOTE ]
So a mid. holding will fold even more to a stop and go, I think, than a turn 3 bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seems like more of a reason to 3 bet the turn.

[Dave Mac]

[ QUOTE ]
....but if your opponents are thwarting the river S&amp;G by folding than you could increase the frequency of the play -- when holding a few missed draws.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree and i try to.

[Dave Mac]

yes and no. If he will fold a king then yes b/c he is getting odds to draw to his hand. But, I don't think he will fold a K on the turn. Rather, I think a lot of the time he will call the turn and fold when he misses and raise when he hits. so in that case I win 2 bets when he misses and lose 3 when he hits. But, if i just call he will bet thbe river and so i will win 2 bets, and only lose 2 bets. or at least that is the way i see it.
Dave

[Dave Mac]

He had AQ and mhwg.

I first posted this hand b/c i thought i totally screwed it up and I wanted to make 100% sure and remind myself to play better and not be a donk. But then as I thought about it I felt it was closer than it first looked. I think the not folding a bluff and the K on the turn make it worth at least contomplating just calling. However, overall I think everyone was right and a 3 bet is right against all but a very select few oponenets.
Dave

[SoSo]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

what relevance does this have to my post?

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the not folding a bluff and the K on the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with those reasons. I don't see the K betting the river very much, even in this game. And I think most bluffs will be some sort of semibluff like 67 or Kxh.

[Dave Mac]

so do you think ccing the turn has no merit or those reasons just suck?

[mike l.]

what youre asking here makes it seem like you are afraid to commit too many big bets with strong but not amazing hands playing 3 handed high limit hold em. that's a pretty significant leak at higher limits. you have to be fearless. 54 is the nuts there way too often. you want the turn to get capped. it sounds like you dont understand shorthanded play very well, maybe im wrong, but that's not the issue. your post comes off as naive.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
yes and no. If he will fold a king then yes b/c he is getting odds to draw to his hand. But, I don't think he will fold a K on the turn. Rather, I think a lot of the time he will call the turn and fold when he misses and raise when he hits. so in that case I win 2 bets when he misses and lose 3 when he hits. But, if i just call he will bet thbe river and so i will win 2 bets, and only lose 2 bets. or at least that is the way i see it.
Dave

[/ QUOTE ]

the fact that he bet the flop and called the c'r reduces the probability he's drawing to 2kings 3 kickers and 3 aces assuming he has KQ or some similart hand.

-Barron

[Tony.T]

Baaam!


Finally, this I like!

[SA125]

I think it's a fold pf and a 3 bet turn.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
so do you think ccing the turn has no merit or those reasons just suck?

[/ QUOTE ]

I just don't see any good logic for not 3-betting.

[elindauer]

Hi Dave,

Looks like a pretty easy 3-bet to me. Barring that, you should check-raise the river. What are you afraid of? He'll probably play this way with any big ace, and also with some hands that are worse than that. I don't play this game, but I can only assume these heads up battles are aggressive as hell. You should push hard when you have the goods.

-Eric

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think the not folding a bluff and the K on the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with those reasons. I don't see the K betting the river very much, even in this game. And I think most bluffs will be some sort of semibluff like 67 or Kxh.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bingo.

[Danielih]

Hey buddy
I'd 3bet but given a poll of 2+2ers im almost surely a donkey.

[catlover]

When you are ahead, your opponent has hidden outs. Top pair hands will generally have 8 outs for instance.

For this reason, I think checkraising safe-looking rivers is superior to 3-betting the turn.

For instance, on the turn, suppose you think your opponent is equally likely to have AK, AQ, AJ, and AT. Well, if it's AK, your c/r will cost you 2 big bets on 40 of the 44 possible river cards, and will win you 2 big bets on the other 4. That's an average loss of 72/44 big bets.

If it's one of the other hands, your c/r will win you 1 big bet on 36 of the 44 cards, and cost you 1 big bet on the other 8. That's an average win of 28/44 big bets.

Since you are (in this simplified analysis) 75% likely to be ahead, and 25% likely to be behind, your average win from the c/r in big bets is

0.75 * 28/44 - 0.25 * 72/44,

which comes out to 3/44 of a big bet. Not real exciting.

But if you wait for the river, and c/r only if it is a 9 or lower, you will win a full big bet all of those times.

I realize this is oversimplifying things, but I think it still makes a strong case for waiting.

[Dave Mac]

Obviously, I screwed up this hand and I appericate the scathing and frank comments. However, generally I think that being a little passive in spots where you have a good hand and they have the lead is very important and underrated. There are a lot of players that are super aggressive and if you let them maintane the lead they won't slow down. for EX, I can't find the HH but...

Dave has K5o and is the BB 3 handed
Button raises, SB folds, I call.
flop is K77r
I check call,
turn is a 4, I check call.
river is a blankish card, i think it was a J.
I bet he calls with JT.
If I raise any street he lets it go. I dunno hands like this seem to come up a lot. I am plenty aggressive in other situations but I always always try to get them to hang themselves, becuase that is what they seem to do. They put in more money, drawing very slim, if you let them be over agg. than they will if you take they lead and knock them out of the pot.
Dave

[Lestat]

If I just called, it would to not let him off his hand so I could collect another bet on the river. NOT, because I didn't like my hand.

Although 3-betting is probably correct here, since your hand is very vulnerable and you want to charge him to outdraw you.

[Lestat]

<font color="red"> However, generally I think that being a little passive in spots where you have a good hand and they have the lead is very important and underrated. </font>

You're correct. But the two hands you gave are very different from each other and it's important to see why. Especially if you're playing 150/300.

[Robb]

[ QUOTE ]
When you are ahead, your opponent has hidden outs. Top pair hands will generally have 8 outs for instance.

For this reason, I think checkraising safe-looking rivers is superior to 3-betting the turn.

For instance, on the turn, suppose you think your opponent is equally likely to have AK, AQ, AJ, and AT. Well, if it's AK, your c/r will cost you 2 big bets on 40 of the 44 possible river cards, and will win you 2 big bets on the other 4. That's an average loss of 72/44 big bets.

If it's one of the other hands, your c/r will win you 1 big bet on 36 of the 44 cards, and cost you 1 big bet on the other 8. That's an average win of 28/44 big bets.

Since you are (in this simplified analysis) 75% likely to be ahead, and 25% likely to be behind, your average win from the c/r in big bets is

0.75 * 28/44 - 0.25 * 72/44,

which comes out to 3/44 of a big bet. Not real exciting.

But if you wait for the river, and c/r only if it is a 9 or lower, you will win a full big bet all of those times.

I realize this is oversimplifying things, but I think it still makes a strong case for waiting.

[/ QUOTE ]

Valid points but I don't think you've weighted the times your opponent checks behind on the river. It may not be often but that doesn't make it insignificant EV wise.

[mike l.]

that hand is good up to the river. why didnt you checkraise the river? you want him to bet again with nothing or be if he made a J. and if he has anything that beats you worse than a 7, say KQ, he will oftentimes be too scared to reraise the river because he might be scared you have a 7.

[Dave Mac]

I was more worried he would check behind with an A or Q or some very small pair. But, Cr-ing the river was the other option that I concidered.
Dave

[DanZ]

one thing to notice is that once th pot gets sizable here, you want your opponent to fold as much as possible. If he has an ace he is unlikely to fold with at least 8 outs. But even if he has just a middle pocket pair or KQ, he has a lot more outs than he would think if you 3 bet the turn - 8.

Given this, a turn 3 bet is madatory with 2 small pair. If you had an ace, you have more options.

Dan Z.

[Dave Mac]

I agree with both your comments, and think the best line is prolly 3 bet and lead the river if he caps, and call a raise.
More generally i need not to [censored] up a hand like this agian, ever.
dave

[Dave Mac]

yeah, exactly, anouther huge reason i screwed this up.
thanks
dave

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
Dave has K5o and is the BB 3 handed
Button raises, SB folds, I call.
flop is K77r

[/ QUOTE ]

The concepts at play in this hand and your original hand are very different.

[RydenStoompala]

Your reply is the nuts. Well done.

[kemystery]

I would think your flatcall on the turn requires some kind of (to earn the extra BB) checkraise on 5th, seems like you're against a decent ace.

[kemystery]

doh!, just read the other replies. Sorry to repost. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Dave Mac]

np, thanks for the reply.
dave

[Robb]

Good point Dan. The chicken out play (river stop and go) is more preferable to calling the turn and checking the river. But it's a distant second to 3 betting the turn for the reason you mentioned.

[Ezcheeze]

If he caps after you three bet the turn then I would check and call the river, leading the river and calling a raise is too much. Unless of course you have some sort or read that not only is he being overagro vs. your turn 3 bets but also that a large portion of the time he caps he is looking for a free showdown. Otherwise, you're beat too often or he'll bet the river often enough to make betting the river incorrect.