Bubble, LAG pushes, I have mid pocket pair

[thesharpie]

4 handed Bodog $11. Blinds 50/100.

Villain is CO with T4,070
Hero is BTN with T2,445
SB has 2,115
BB has 1,370

Hero dealt T/images/graemlins/club.gifT/images/graemlins/spade.gif

<font color="#CC3333">Villain min raises to T200</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero reraises to T640</font>, SB folds, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Villain calls</font>

T1,430 - Flop 5/images/graemlins/club.gif4/images/graemlins/heart.gifJ/images/graemlins/club.gif

<font color="#CC3333">Villain pushes</font> 1,805 to me

Villain had been doing quite a bit of raising preflop, he'd also call preflop raises liberally. He once check raised the pot on a KK2 flop against the pf-r when the pf-r bet tiny on the flop, he took the pot and showed the bluff. I'm pretty sure he'll do this with something like 5s, a worse pocket pair, or a flush draw. Maybe even worse as he might put me on overcards and is hoping the jack didn't hit me.

[thesharpie]

Bump, please.

[Nacarno]

So putting him on AKs, AQs, ATs-A2s, KQs, KTs-K8s, QTs (all in clubs); any A5, K5, or Q5; any AJ, KJ, or QJ; and any PP &lt; TT but not 55 or 44, you're about a 2-1 favorite.

By ICM you have 0.2224 $EV by folding and 0.2481 $EV calling and winning 2/3rds of the time. You may want to check my numbers and test against a different range, but otherwise it looks like a call.

-edit-

If you add in more flush draws it becomes closer, but still a call.

[Newt_Buggs]

With the bs as aggressive as you have described I might push preflop. As you can tell by the situation that you got put in on the flop, if he ever manages to put all of his chips in before you do you're stuck. Also, if he's been aggressive the chances that he has a better hand that he can call with are quite slim. Once seeing the flop here, I think that this is a reluctant fold. Even if he could do this with a 5, since he raised pf he is much more likely to be holding a jack than a 4 or 5. I hope this helpped.

[PokerProdigy]

IMO you should have gotten more aggressive with this preflop, just called, or just gotten out of the way; but NOT just re-raise a mediocre amount which IMO is the worst thing you could have done. If it was me and I had seen Villian making a few moves, then I would push all-in preflop. If however, the exact same situation arose EXCEPT the BB had about 1000 or less, then I would probably (but NOT neccessarily depending on my read of Villian) have gotten out of the way since I was almost gauranteed a top 3 finish. But in this instance you are NOT really that far ahead of BB and you have noticed Villian making some moves, therefore, I would probably have pushed preflop so that you can hopefully pickup the money thats out there, but if you didn't want to do that then you should have just called so that I'd be easier to fold if the flop was not to your liking. Basically, what you have done is make decisions which put the most pressure on you.

In this exact situation though I would probably fold the flop when he pushed because you still have a good amount of chips and the blinds are not too high. Besides, you (or maybe someone else?) might pickup a hand when he gets out of line on a future hand. Or maybe one of your opponents will get irritated and play a marginal hand. Either way this should increase your chances of getting into the money.

[thesharpie]

Villain held 4/images/graemlins/club.gif3/images/graemlins/club.gif and my hand held up. /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

I probably should push preflop like a couple have mentioned. If I wasn't gonna push the raise should've been at least to 750 to make him pay the pot, but then I might get put to a tough decision getting 2 to 1 against a likely bluffer.