Middle Set, Not scary at all question about value river bet? [Archive]

View Full Version : Middle Set, Not scary at all question about value river bet?

Maulik

07-03-2005, 02:17 AM

I thought 7/12 of the pot here is a good sized value/river bet. perhaps more is less in this situation?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero ($175.45)
MP2 ($192.6)
MP3 ($105.65)
CO ($158.05)
Button ($76.65)
SB ($89.05)
BB ($99.35)
UTG ($180.3)
UTG+1 ($60.05)
UTG+2 ($100.75)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
UTG calls $1, 2 folds, Hero calls $1, 2 folds, CO calls $1, Button raises to $3, 1 fold, BB calls $2, UTG calls $2, Hero calls $2, CO calls $2.

Flop: ($15.50) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $15, Hero calls $15, CO calls $15, Button folds, BB folds.

Turn: ($60.50) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $30, CO calls $30, UTG folds.

River: ($120.50) J/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $70, CO folds.

Final Pot: $190.50

PokerFink

07-03-2005, 03:03 AM

Wait. People still play full ring games?

Anyway, looks good to me on all streets. Your river bet is fine. It's hard to put him on a hand and know exactly what he will call. And I don't see how you will get away from it - so on the off chance that he has QJ you're just going to have to suck it up and try not to cry.

I'm wondering what UTG has, don't see a big pot bet on the flop and then a check/fold on the turn very often...

EDIT...

Lets go into this further. He could have...

1) A missed straight draw. He won't call anything.
2) 56: He probably won't call anything.
3) Q5/Q6: He probably won't call anything more than maybe 20 or 30 bucks.
4) 55: He will probably call all-in, and probably raise a small bet.
5) QQ/QJ: That sucks.
6) Medium Queen: Probably call up to about 50 bucks.
7) High Queen (AQ/KQ): Who knows. Might call 50+, might not.
8) Medium Pair: Who knows. Probably won't call 50+.

So after looking at that, I think your bet makes a little less sense unless you know he is a calling station that will call seventy bucks with AQ/KQ. As such, you could either bet like 30 and try to get a little value, or just push and hope to god he has 55. Of course, if you bet 30 he will probably raise with 55 anyway, so pushing is kind of pointless.

Normally with that kind of action and your hand, a half pot bet like you made is ideal. But in this situation, it's hard to put villian on a hand that will call off seventy bucks unless villian is a super donkey. So maybe bet less. This is a very specific situation though, and it's not easy to figure all that out on the spot.

XXXNoahXXX

07-03-2005, 03:14 AM

That river bet works for me. You didn't get the call this time, but given the pot size, this seems appropriate. I might of went for a smaller bet, maybe $40, because not only can u get a call here, but also might induce a bluff reraise from weaker opponents.

Jonny

07-03-2005, 04:01 AM

I'd bet 50 on the turn. That changes everything obviously.

jcmack13

07-03-2005, 10:05 AM

When I'm fairly sure I'm crushing my opponent and the pot has gotten fairly large, I've started making my river value bets much smaller relative to the size of the pot, so I might've bet $30-$40 here. I like to encourage the "what the hell does he have" river call, which is easier with a relatively smallish bet. That said, I like play on all streets here.